However, Boserup (1976 in Crook. N 1997) points out that the population growth is the main dynamic of the increase of food production. It is a result of using high techniques in the agriculture. In instance, people live in LDCs have grasped the new agriculture technique that can let them take more than one crop every year and doubling or trebling the production of each piece of land. According to a brand-new scientific report, people have already succeeded in producing potatoes in the water. If this technique be spread in all LDCs, it will be a good solution of lack of food.
These days, although population is still going up in less developed countries, population growth goes more and more slowly. In comparison, the rate of total food production increase is increasing much more rapidly than population. For instance, according to the figure 1 (Crook. N 1997), we can see that the food production has been much more than population in China.
According to the studies conducted by Simon in 1977, it shows that the under5 mortality rate is still very high as well as infant mortality rate in LDCs, especially in some of poor countries such as sub-Saharan countries. Most of people live in those countries have to produce food for them. In this case, more children mean that they have more opportunities to maintain enough labors to work in their lands. Poor peasants live in the rural areas have no enough money to improve their agriculture techniques. Even if they have a little surplus, they are still doubt about the efficiency and reliability of new techniques. Some of them do not know how to improve or use it, because of lack of education and basic knowledge. In addition, developing agriculture techniques takes time. Thus, to have more children has positive effect upon those farmers. For instance this is the simplest method to have more labors, which may produce additional outputs over time. Population growth has a positive effect upon the creation of infrastructure, such as roads, irrigation system and so on. More population implies that more people may want to use better infrastructure and may provide more labors to build them. By contraries, the good infrastructure may lead to more population. Transportation inputs and outputs the food production and information to or from local people, which provide a more efficient way to control the conditions of famine and starvation. Obviously, more transportation gives farmers more opportunities to increase their income by put their ‘surplus goods’ in the markets (Simon. J 1977).
Growing population and nature resources.
Despite humanity’s success in feeding a growing world population, the
natural resources on which life depends – fresh water, cropland, fisheries
and forests among them – are increasingly depleted or strained. One
hopeful sign for the new millennium is that population growth is slowing
significantly. Current population projections suggest the possibility that world
population could peak earlier and at a lower level than indicated by the
projections of the past. Such an outcome, however, will require that family
planning and related services be available to all who seek them, that more girls
attend school and remain there longer, and that more women have the same
economic opportunities men enjoy. We know that making family planning and
related reproductive health services increasingly available to those who seek
them is one of the world's success stories. The challenge in the new century is to
make such services available to all who want them.
Currently, 434 million people face water scarcity. Depending on future rates of
population growth, between 2.6 billion and 3.1 billion people may be living in either
water-scarce or water-stressed conditions by 2025. For tens of millions of people in
the Middle East and in much of Africa today, the lack of available fresh water is a
chronic concern that is growing more acute and more widespread.
The problem is worse than it often appears on the ground, because much of the fresh
water now used in water-scarce regions comes from deep aquifers that are not being
refreshed by the natural water cycle. In most of the countries where water shortage is
severe and worsening, high rates of population growth exacerbate the declining
availability of renewable fresh water. While 25 countries currently experience either
water stress or scarcity, between 36 and 40 countries are projected to face similar
conditions by 2025.
Today about 1.8 billion people live in 36 countries with less than 0.1 hectare of
forested land per capita, an indicator of critically low levels of forest cover. Based on
the medium population projection and current deforestation trends, by 2025 the
number of people living in forest-scarce countries could nearly double to 3 billion.
Most of the world's original forests have been lost to the expansion of human
activities. In many parts of the developing world, the future availability of forest
resources for food, fuel and shelter looks quite discouraging. Future declines in the
per capita availability of forests, especially in developing countries, are likely to pose
major challenges for both conservation and human well being.
People and Carbon Dioxide
In 1998, the last year for which global data are available for both population and
heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions, per capita emissions of CO2 continued the
upward trend that dominated the middle 1990s. When combined with growing world
population, these increased per capita emissions accelerated the accumulation of
greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere and, thus, future global warming.
With 4.6 percent of the world's population, the United States accounted for 24 percent
of all emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture, by far the
largest CO2 contributor among nations. Emissions remained grossly inequitable, with
one fifth of the world's population accounting for 62 percent of all emissions in 1996
while another-and much poorer-fifth accounted for less than 2 percent.
Please view the following data tables.
South Africa
China
United Kingdom
USA
Having reached nearly 6.1 billion in 2000, human population continues to grow.
UNpopulation projections for the year 2050 range from 7.9 billion to 10.9 billion,
suggesting the extent to which we can influence our future. More people and
higher incomes worldwide are multiplying humanity's impacts on the
environment and on the natural resources that are essential to life. The planet's
fresh water, fisheries, forests and atmosphere are already strained.
Based on these trends, it is clear that the 21st century will witness even greater
pressures on natural resources. Current demographic trends offer hope, however. Over
the past 40 years the average number of children born to each woman has fallen from
have smaller families. Policymakers have a choice. They can do nothing, or they can
help ensure that in the 21st century the world's population peaks with fewer than 8
billion people, simply by committing the financial resources to meet the needs of
couples who want to have smaller families, later in life.
The future of the relationship between people and critical natural resources has begun
to appear more hopeful than it has for some time. Human population growth is
slowing down. While slowing, however, significant growth continues, meaning that
more people will be sharing such finite resources as freshwater and cropland. And in
some regions – notably in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia – large families and
early pregnancies provide strong momentum for population growth that could
continue for generations to come. But the braking of this growth has been significant
enough that many analysts of natural resources are more optimistic about their future
availability than they were in the early 1990s.
This update to People in the Balance analyses new data on population growth and the
state of critical natural resources. Among its key findings:
- By the year 2025, between 2.6 billion and 3.1 billion people could be living in
either water-scarce or water-stressed conditions, depending on future rates of
population growth. This is compared to 434 million people living in these
circumstances in the year 2000. While 25 countries currently experience either
water stress or scarcity, between 36 and 40 countries are projected to face similar
conditions by 2025. Water shortage is likely to grow especially acute in the
Middle East and in much of Africa.
- An estimated 415 million people currently live in countries that have less
than .07 hectare of cultivated land per person. This benchmark is considered the
bare minimum capable of supplying a vegetarian diet for one person, under ideal
conditions (without use of artificial chemical inputs or loss of soil and soil
nutrients). The number of people living in such critically land-scarce countries is
projected to increase to between 600 million and 986 million in 2025. In other
words, at least 10 to 15 more countries will experience shortages of land for food
production.
- Global fish production climbed modestly in 1997, mostly from the expansion
of aquaculture in China. Most fisheries worldwide remain fully exploited or in
decline, however, and the amount of fish caught per fisher is declining steadily.
- Today over 1.8 billion people live in 36 countries with 0.1 hectare of forested
land per capita, an indicator of critically low levels of forest cover. Based on the
medium population projection and current trends in deforestation, by 2025, the
number of people affected could nearly double to 3 billion.
- One-fifth of the world’s population lives on the 12 percent of its land surface
with the highest densities of non-human species. Human population is growing
significantly faster in these biodiversity hotspots than in the world or in
developing countries as a whole.
- In 1998, measurable per capita emissions of CO2 rose modestly. This
continued a several-year trend of increasing per capita fossil-fuel consumption
that, in combination with growing world population, raised the risk of climate
change by accelerating the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the global
atmosphere. With less than 5 percent of world population, the United States
contributed nearly 24 percent of these emissions, up from 22 percent in 1996.
Population is hardly the only force applying pressure to the natural world and the
resources it provides. But few would argue that the environmental challenges
humanity faces in the 21st century and beyond will become easier to address as the
number of human beings continues to increase. For each of the natural resources
considered here, the long ascent of population reveals itself as a critical variable
influencing resource availability on local, regional and global scales.
The most hopeful aspect of the slowing of population growth remains little known
among environmentalists and the general public. More and more, young people on
every continent want to start bearing children later in life and to have smaller families
than at any time in history. Likewise, in greater proportions than ever, women and
girls in particular want to go to school and to college, and they want to find fulfilling
and well-paid employment. Helping people in every country obtain the information
and services they need to put these ambitions into effect is all that can be done, and all
that needs to be done, to bring world population growth to a stable landing in the new
century.
What is needed is for government and the private sector to make reproductive health
services available to all who seek them, to make sure that girls and boys can go to and
stay in school, and to make economic opportunities as accessible to women as to men.
Combined with improved energy and natural-resource technologies and saner models
of consumption and the “good life,” these strategies can bring humanity into enduring
balance with the environment and the natural resources that people will always need.
Is overpopulation is a major cause of Environment?
Erilch, P (1968) suggests that the food scarcity just one of simple effects because of overpopulation, in a long-term view the environmental degradation may be more serious for all the humanity and non-humanity. Along with the increase of population, humanity directly and indirectly causes more and more serious environmental problems. It is clear that firstly, to feed more and more population, people have to create or overuse lands to grow food. In this case, people may cut down forests and use more fresh water to irrigate lands and so on. Secondly, as a result overpopulation destroys the balance of our ecosystem. Nowadays, almost all societies face on a series of environmental problems such as lack of water, deforestation, global climate change and so on. For instance, a survey by the Food and Agriculture Organization produced a report that shows the size of tropical forests will shrink by 10-18 percentages by 2000(Postel in Ohlsson 1984). Forests are very important resource not only for our human being, but also for preventing soil erosion and their aesthetic value. Massive deforestation has accelerated erosion and produced worsening droughts and floods (Crook. N 1997). Finally, there are too many cars, factories, and chemical medicines to pollute our air as well as fresh water resource. As a subsequence, in terms of global climate change and in terms of local weather changes cause the greenhouse effect and lots of acid rains (Erilch. P 1968).
On the other hand, as some other writers arguing, there is just few evidence can prove the direct relationship between population growth, size, density and environmental degradation (Crook. N 1997). First of all, the majority of proportion of environmental damages caused by developed countries, rich people in developing countries and the lager international commercial originations. Keyfitz points out that one-third of oil production was being used to fuel automobiles in the world. The number of automobiles is still growing up, because the standard of living improves noticeably in developed countries and in developing countries and the development of automobile industry that has led to the decrease of automobile price. The considerable automobiles have become one of the biggest resources of air pollution. The rapid industrialization is another major cause of the global environmental pollution, such as the risk of global climate change. It can be argued that if developing countries want to develop their countries’ economy, the industrialization is still a very efficient method to get lager economic growth (Woodhouse. P 2000). In this case, the countries of LDCs can not afford expensive green-technologies to be industrialized and protect their environment because of their poor economic basis. Therefore, the governments do not have choice to make a perfect economic policy that can develop their economy and protect their environment at same time.
As Crook (1997) states that ‘not only rich people damage the environment, poor people also damage the environment’. Poor people cut down forests because they can not afford any fuel product in the market. At same time, they may want to get more profits through selling woods in the market, which is much more profitable than selling food products. The large international commercial organizations damage environment far more than the individual people. The only objective for them is the significant profits. Thus, they do not care about the environmental deterioration very much. In addition, they usually do not directly suffer from the feedback of environmental degradation that they caused. If fertilizer finds its way into river, the people who live in the downstream may suffer from it most. If the trees are cut down too quickly, there may be serious climate change (Crook. N 1997). It is not clear that population growth is the main cause of environmental degradation. In many of African countries, especially Sub-Saharan countries, there is not much population than other countries but they suffer from serious environmental problem, particularly droughts. In the United States population growth is only 1 percent every year in US, while the pollution grows at 9 percent annually (Simon. J 1977). The example notes that the economic growth has much more influence on environmental pollution than population growth.
Summary
To sum up:
According to Simon’s (1977) conclusions, in a short term population growth has some negative influence on development in LDCs, particularly in decreasing the GNP/GDI pre capita annually. However, in a long run population growth will increase the amount of workforces and give more positive effects upon economic growth in LDCs, especially in agriculture as well as in public infrastructures. The main population problem is the distribution of food production and population density. Furthermore, Crook (1997) concludes that people will eventually manage environment by rapid development of economy and technologies. Therefore, population growth is not the major cause of poverty and environmental degradation, but they are interactive
In theory above conclusions are true. However, in practice we should be in a subject position to analyze the individual problem. A country’s value, culture and beliefs are very fundamental things for people to make different decisions (Simon. J 1977).
Bibliography
Reference
Allen. T & A. Thomas (eds), (2000) Poverty and Development into the 21st Century Oxford: OUP/Open University
Boserup. E, (1976) ‘Environment and Technology in Primitive Societies’ in Population and Development Review Blackwell, Oxford (1981)
Borserup. E (1965) The conditions of agriculture growth London: George Allen and Unwin
Crook. N, (1997) Principles of Population and Development Oxford University Press
Ehrlich. P (1968) Population Bomb Simon and Schuster New York (1971)
Hewitt. T & I. Smyth, (2000) ‘Is the world overpopulated?’ in Allen. T & A. Thomas (eds) (2000) chapter 6
Marx, K, (1887), ‘The General Law of Capitalist Accumulation’ in Capital Penguin, Harmondsworth (1973)
Ohlesson. L, (1999) Environment Scarcity and Conflict: A study of Malthusian concerns Göteborg University: Department of Peace and Development Research
Simon. J. L (1977) The Economics of Population Growth Princetion University Press, Princetion, New Jersey
Postal. S (1992) Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity, New York: W. W. Norton & Co
UN (1989) World Population Prospects 1998, United Nations, New York
Woodhouse. P, (2000) ‘Environmental degradation and sustainability’ in Allen. T & A. Thomas (eds) (2000) chapter 7
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