An example of where a knowledge of physical processes has helped to understand when a hazard will occur is Hurricane Katrina, which struck the south coast of the United States at the end of August 2005. Hurricanes are formed by upper air divergence over an ocean whose temperature is over approximately 26C, which explains why they very rarely occur in this country. The occurrence of Hurricane Katrina was predicted for days before it struck America, but hurricanes are generally very difficult to predict as they have a tendency to change course without warning. However, the knowledge of physical processes that America, as an MEDC, did have, helped to save lives, as although the levees were breached, there was enough warning for some people to evacuate their homes. Also, without the satellite tracking that America was capable of, the effects of the hurricane could have been far worse than they already were, as the occurrence of the hazard would not have been predicted in time to evacuate people. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that America’s knowledge of physical processes was vital in the understanding of the occurrence of the event, especially when compared with another hurricane, Hurricane Mitch, which struck Honduras in October 1998.
Since Honduras is an LEDC, it does not have the satellite technology that America does to track hurricanes like Mitch. Unfortunately without satellites, little knowledge of the physical processes at work can be gained and the hurricane is very difficult to predict. Even if it did have a knowledge of physical processes, there is little that Honduras could have done to determine the occurrence of the hurricane other than look out for changes in the weather. Although Honduras is no stranger to such events and they can try to predict at what time of the year hurricanes are likely to occur, there is no way of determining exactly when or being able to evacuate people in time since the knowledge of physical processes is generally absent.
Another type of event in which physical knowledge of processes greatly assists the prediction of the event is in the occurrence of volcanic eruptions. One such eruption was that of Mount St. Helens in 1980, in which 57 people were killed. This death rate is very low considering the magnitude of the eruption. In fact, eruptions of this magnitude are so rare that one like Mount St. Helens is not expected to happen again in our lifetime. Luckily, America has the knowledge of physical processes and the technology to accurately predict when a volcano is going to erupt. Volcanologists can predict the eruption by measuring gas emissions, such as sulphur dioxide, as any change in the levels of gas emitted can indicate imminent eruption. Warnings can also be given after a surge of earthquakes under the surface of the volcano, which seismologists can measure, or a change in temperature around the volcano. Without a knowledge of physical processes, it would be impossible to determine when a volcanic eruption is likely to occur, since it is not possible to see the tectonic plates moving and colliding. Therefore, any evidence of the plates moving requires specific knowledge of physical processes in order to predict any immediate risk of eruption, and MEDCs like America are more likely to have access to this knowledge and technology than LEDCs like the Philippines.
Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in 1991 and had a devastating effect on the entire island. Although Americans had been working with the Philippines to help predict the eruption, the countries own knowledge of volcanoes and the physical processes involved simply wasn’t enough to accurately predict just how high a magnitude this eruption would be. Their lack of knowledge meant that the country was taken more by surprise by the eruption, and although a hazard zone had been established, it wasn’t nearly as wide as it should’ve been and this caused many more deaths than if the hazard zone had been expanded. LEDC countries generally lack the knowledge of physical processes behind such hazards, as they often cannot afford the technology which is vital if a volcanic eruption is to be predicted. Working with MEDC countries often provides assistance to the situation, but often the LEDC country does not ask for help until it is far too late because they do not spot the early warning signs given off by the hazard.
Overall, I conclude that a detailed knowledge of physical processes certainly helps to predict the occurrence of a natural hazard. However, there are still deaths that are unpreventable unless technology advances. It is possible to accurately predict where an event will occur, but in some cases such as hurricanes it will always be difficult to determine how large the scale of the event will be as they are very prone to changing course. However, knowledge of physical processes means that we can predict more accurately when and where the event is likely to occur as opposed to if we didn’t have that knowledge.