Thatcher only survived as prime minister 1979-1990 because of luck and the weakness of her opponents assess the validity of this verdict.

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“Thatcher only survived as prime minister 1979-1990 because of luck and the weakness of her opponents” assess the validity of this verdict.

Nicole Guilder

        

Many believed in 1983, that Margaret Thatcher’s first term in office would be her last.  There were deep party divisions’ amongst the conservatives, and many were sacked or driven to resign. Margaret Thatcher was accused of “steering the ship of state straight on to the rocks.” by her ex colleague Sir Ian Gilmour. The government had become hugely unpopular, the approval rate in April 1981 were down to 27%. Some polls even showed the conservatives in third place, behind both Labour and the Alliance. Yet in 1983 the Conservatives were able to win a massive election victory and remain in office for another seven years. Although it has been suggested that Thatcher only survived as prime minister due to the weakness of opponents and an element of luck, it appears there are other reasons for the eleven years she spent in office. For example, the use of skilful policy and perhaps the most important, the Falklands factor. This essay will examine these issues and eventually conclude that although the above factors of weak opponent, and luck were important to Thatcher’s survival; they were certainly not the only reasons which should be taken into account.

        The political landscape was transformed in 1982 by the impact of the war in the Falklands on domestic politics. A the beginning of 1982, Thatcher was one the most unpopular prime ministers in living memory, her attacks on local councils and the fact unemployment was approaching 3 million was causing major concern amongst the British public. There was also a genuine fear among Conservative MPs that the next election might be very difficult to win, however victory in the Falklands changed all this. The military regime in Argentina invaded the Falklands Islands in April 1982. Margaret Thatcher’s immediate response was a full-scale military effort to recover the islands; this decision was a gamble that could easily have gone wrong but British forces achieved complete success. This decisive and relatively painless victory was seen as a vindication of Margaret Thatcher’s bold leadership. There had been opposition to the war, but from the very beginning, the war had unleashed a wave of patriotism around the country. There was also approval from most of the national press. Even most of the Labour party supported the recovery of the Falklands. Historian Clive Christie recognises the importance the Falklands had on enabling Thatcher to remain in office, “The Falklands did the Labour party enormous electoral harm, and was almost certainly one of the reasons Thatcher was able to boast a crushing victory a year later.” The “Falklands factor” galvanised the Conservative activists. Margaret Thatcher gained self confidence and began to dominate the party in a way she had not been able to before. The Falklands War was a springboard for her election victory in 1983, and is evidence that luck played a part in Thatcher being able to remain in office. As without the Falklands factor, it is most likely the political climate would still be hostile for Thatcher and the Conservative party, instead public opinion on Thatcher was completely transformed, and they now viewed her as a confident, pragmatic leader who would lead Britain with re-assurance. Consequently it seems that without this stroke of luck, Thatcher’s political carer would have been cut short. It is therefore evident that luck was an important factor for Thatcher as a prime minister. However, on its own, the Falklands factor might not have been enough to save Margaret Thatcher’s government; she also benefited from the improving economic situation.

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        Another factor for Margaret Thatcher’s long term in office not mentioned in the above view is the improving economic situation which took place throughout the 1980’s.  Although under Thatcher unemployment remained at a fairly high rate, the improving economic situation proved popular with the public, and many began to believe that Thatcher could indeed do as she said and transform Britain’s economy. The recession which hit Britain in the late 1970’s had bottomed out by 1981. Growth resumed in 1982, in fact it was nearly 4 per cent by 1983. On top of this inflation was falling, including the mortgage ...

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