The period of hopeless revolution was to be attributed by the establishment of Duma.
Nicholas II realized his promise, a diet was established. During the first and the second Duma, it contained Soviet members and many liberals. The Duma, acting as paralysis, dividing the revolutionaries. Many Democrats and Liberals, believed their vision had to be achieved, neutralizing their hatred towards the Czar. Moreover, many moderate saw the prospect of the Czarist government, they found no excuse to continue opposition and they believed the revolutionaries were gone too far. Thus, it further weakened the possibility of revolt since the revolutionary elements lost their impulse and incentive.
The chance and prospect of revolution was further lapse by the divisions of the revolutionary parties. The broken up of the Russian Socialist Party became the stain of the international socialist movement. Party fortune was at low ebb, the Bolshevik was isolated and broke off from the Social Democratic Party in the Brussels Conference and Lenin was unwilling to compromise with the Menshevik strategy, i.e., to adopt the peaceful revolution. The strong repression policy adopted by Stolypin further disintegrated the unity and efficiency of the Socialist. The weak and divided opposition made the victory of the revolutionaries impossible. The period before the WWI, therefore, was a honeymoon period to Nicholas II, it seemed the Czar had already stabilized his rule after 1905 upheaval.
Yet, there were still man historian argued the Czarist government can’t escape from the fate of collapse if there was another foreign war, which smashed the gradual stabilized regime. The First World War created a new prospect for revolution.
Politically, Historian Hill argued the World War I exposed the weakness of the Czarist leadership again, providing a chance for the revolutionaries to revive their anti-government activities. True, despite of a news of defeat by Germany came month after month which revealed the incapability of the imperial house, the Czar had made a wrong decision, he took over the Commander in Chief, going to the battlefront, leaving the Czarina and Rasputin to lead the government. This created power vacuum and both of them were bad reputed, the royal family was now disintegrated and its reputation was seriously weakened.
Such power vacuum seriously disable the royal family to rescue the loyalty from the Duma and the garrison when panic, confusion and chaos broke out in Petrograd, the Duma President seized with social disorder, forcing the Grand Duke to abdicate and established a Provisional Government. Hence, the WWI indirectly removed the Czar from his capital, letting the revolutionaries and Duma members to fill with this power vacuum.
Economically, the war had smashed the agrarian reform introduced by Stolypin. Though Stolypin reforms were high sounding, it needed time to achieve his goal. The WWI had ended all such possibility. The invasion of Ukraine, the major grain production area of Russia, caused a widespread food storage and farm destruction. It was followed by famine, starvation and diseases. The peasants were unable to earn their livelihood, they felt disappointed to the government not only because of lacking government concern to their live but also the Czar gave them misfortune. Lenin and other socialists on the other hand, promising for food and land, receiving popular support among the peasantry, they joined revolution. The loss of the peasantry support which had been a strong resistance to revolution, giving a possible rise of a large-scale revolution in the future.
Besides, in the urban areas, production was in standstill, mostly because the war had used up Russian resources. The government, facing a large-scale invasion of Germany and repeatedly defeat of the Russian army, had to reorganize the resources allocation. With the allowance of the establishment of the War Industry Committee, the government had signed its “own death warrant”. Such committee was given a semi-official status which enable them to organize arm production, such measure not only weakened the control of the government over the workers and the Soviet, the major enemy of the Czar but also let the Socialists to organize a more strong and well planned revolt against the Czar by making use of the War Industry Committee. The 1917 Revolution was partly participated by the members of this committee. The war, therefore, reducing the repression of the government to their opponent.
Moreover, the war removed a group of well discipline and loyal imperial crop. The Petrograd was guarded by newly trained army which have been influenced by the socialist propaganda, they were less discipline, it can explain why the Petrograd garrison supported the revolutionaries when chaos and strike broke out in 1917.
The heavy casualties not only reduced the strength of the loyal crop to keep the social order but also lead to large scale mutiny, many soldiers illegally left the war front and called for revolution. This occasion further increased the hope for revolution.
In short, the outbreak of the WWI created a hope for revolution again, but there were some historians even argued without the war, revolution would still inevitably break out, what was the reason?
The first reason was undoubtedly the stubbornness of the Czar to open the door for democracy. The granting of the Duma did not give any real democracy to the Russians. The Czar closed his door and continued his autocratic rule later. The Empress was entirely opposite to the Duma. The third and forth Duma sessions were occupied by nobles and conservatives and associated with strong government repressive measures to smash their opponents. Many liberals believed the October Manifesto was based on a lie, the Czarist government was no hope. Nicholas II’s insistence to autocracy in fact had alienated the middle class from him. It unified the radical revolutionary movement against the regime and the split the conservatives and moderates, whose united support was essential if the dynasty was to resist revolution. The failure of Democratic reform between 1906-1917 gave many prospects to Lenin as long as the government was ruled by autocracy, they still have chances to provoke socialist revolution to bring democracy to Russia.
Another fatal weakness of the government was it failed to smash all the potential enemies. The government was said to eliminate all the possibility of revolution when it had passed an effective social legislation. Except of minor agrarian reforms carried out by Stolypin, no major social reform had been introduced. The proposals suggested by the first and second Duma were ruthlessly rejected, tax was still heavy to peasants, living and working conditions were still poor among the workers. Strikes and riots broke out in Siberia and Moscow in 1911, the government smashed by armed repression. This just deepened the general mass hatred to the Czar and potentially let the opposition continue to grow. The peasants who benefited from the agrarian reforms just improved their condition from worse to bad, they were still dissatisfied. A temporary stabilization was underlie by a potential unrest and made the mass to postpone their action but not renounced. The Czar was destined to be overthrown if the general mass living hadn’t been improved.
In a Nutshell, the period after 1906 was just a time of an outwardly peace for the Czar, may be it gave Nicholas II a time to “do something for his people” in order to save his dynasty. If he was able to forgive autocracy and repression, to bring an improved life and effective ruling, the might have continued to be the Czar but neither one he could achieve. The entry of the world just made the downfall more likely, worsening the problems that had already existed, without it, it will just postpone but not avoid as the anti-Czarist wave had deeply rooted in Russian mind for long.
As a result, the period between 1906-14 just saw a prospect of postponing the collapse of the Czar but not saving of his rule forever.
