Was CCP victory in the Civil War of 1945-9 inevitable by the end of the Second World War?

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Was CCP victory in the Civil War of 1945-9 inevitable by the end of the Second World War?

Although the military tactics of the GMD were poor compared to the vastly superior CCP during the Civil War, this only increased the extent of the Red Army’s victory. CCP victory in the Civil War was near inevitable even before it had started for a number of long-term reasons. World War II was a key factor, as it had exaggerated the weaknesses of the GMD and the strengths of the CCP. However, the GMD already had its inherent weaknesses and its fall directly led to its rival’s rise. By 1945, it was widely seen as ailing and corrupt, while the CCP was seen as idealistic and had gained a much wider supporter base.

The true start of the rise of Mao’s CCP can be traced to the beginning of the Second World War. By this time, the Communist base in Yanan had strengthened itself both militarily and politically, with its efforts to muster up a peasant army as well as Mao’s political rethinking and Sinifying of Communism. The constant skirmishes between the GMD and the CCP had gained the CCP more supporters, as the Nationalist Army mistreated the local peasant population greatly (eg. stealing their food, beating the men). The Red Army, by contrast, were given strict instruction on their dealings with peasants, and most soldiers treated them courteously. The ideology of Communism was also appealing to the peasants, as it meant that they would be able to obtain land. The support of the peasants would only aid the CCP in the future, as they would hide Red Army soldiers within their ranks when the GMD came, show the Red Army soldiers the best tactical locations, and give them food. One must remember that China was a largely agricultural society, with the majority of the population as peasants. Therefore, by gaining the support of the peasants, Mao had successfully gained a mass following for the CCP – as the historian Lynch puts it, the ‘struggle for the hearts of the people’ was over. With such strength in numbers, eventual CCP victory looked extremely likely.

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On the other hand, the GMD was widely perceived as corrupt. By the time of the end of World War II, it had been in power for 10 years with no results to show for it. It had alienated its support base, middle-class businessmen, in the years leading up to the Second World War with its attempt at nationalising banks and raising taxes. Its unpopularity meant regular draft-dodging and desertion, and Chiang responded by conscripting by force – draft-dodgers would have their property taken away from them, for example. The economic recession caused by the invasion also negatively affected ...

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