The Turkish workforce with many young people and a much higher birth rate than the ‘strong’ European nations seems a threat to many European governments but there are advantages out of this fact as well be pointed out later. This fear might be fed by statistics saying that half of the Turkish population is thinking about moving abroad. It is also feared that Turkey could be used as an easy way in the EU for immigrants. The rate of illegal immigration into Turkey has significantly risen in the last years but the Turkish government is already working against that trend (Dorronsoro, 2004). Turkey’s population will soon be as big as Germany’s but different from Germany the economy isn’t as strong as the population. That means political and economic dominance won’t come together as it is in Germany. Furthermore Germany hasn’t been proven a trouble maker because of its size and influence (Hughes, 2004).
The most economic problems in Turkey can probably be solved in the next years. Even the IMF is impressed by the economic activity and sees Turkey as a new tiger country. The economic growth of the last three years has exceeded the estimated 5% and settled at 6-7%. Though the per person GDP would still be the lowest in the EU with $ 7000 in 2003 in comparison to the UK’s of $ 27000 (The Economist, 18.09.2004).
Another issue remains, Turkey’s big problem regarding economics is the big debts it has build up after the economic crisis of 2001. 23bn $ they owe to the IMF alone and their gross debt is 80% of the GDP which makes it double as high as the EU average.
“Looking ahead, it is crucial for Turkey to hammer out a viable debt repayment plan. The hope is that the attraction of potentially joining the EU will focus the government's mind. “(http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3712804.stm)
The economical gain from Turkey’s accession would be close to nothing (0.1-0.3% of EU25 GDP) but there could be sufficient gains from the demographic differences in Turkey with a lot younger population. Immigration could rise up to est. 2.9 million migrants in a time where many other EU members would otherwise feel the impact of their aging populations (Hughes, 2004). The fact that Turkey in spite of its size is a rather small economy also has some positive aspects for the EU. It will alleviate Turkey’s influence in the economic policy issues and make it easier to be absorbed in the economy of the EU. Additionally Turkey’s growth potential will offer market opportunities for the EU trade and foreign direct investment (Hughes, 2004).
Political effects
Following I will state the possible political impacts of the Turkish accession. In 1993 the European council in Copenhagen also defined the political standards that countries must meet in order to join the EU, notably a stable democracy, the presence of a state of law, and respect for minority and human rights. Turkey is working to meet these criteria but is still far from the expected. This is where most prejudices against Turkish accession come from. Since Turkey has become a secularist state through Cemal Atatürk the military defends secularity with strong measures. Even the former party of recent Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has been shut down and he went to prison for reading an Islamic poem at a political rally (). It is questionable if this form of a state can be called democratic. Turkey has to meet the regulations as stated in the acquis communautaire. In Turkey that means improvement in the following areas: the rights of women, the abolition of the death penalty and the rights of minorities like the Kurds or the Armenians. These requirements led to a constitutional change in October 2001 which ensured the prevention of torture, freedom of speech, freedom of association, and equality between men and women. The influence of the military has been reduced and the death penalty abolished. Yet it can’t be finalized if the constitutional changes have been fully adopted (Dorronsoro, 2004). The European enlargement minister Günther Verheugen at his visit to Ankara in September of this year pointed out that the implementation of the new laws is similarly important as passing them. Also further improvements have to be made regarding the rights of the Kurdish population and the freedom of religion. The new rights for the Kurds are just a beginning and it is still nearly impossible to open up a non-islamic church in Turkey (The Economist, 18.09.2004).
The political effects Turkey could have on the EU are rather high. It is expected that by 2020 the Turkish population will exceed the German and by that Turkey will become the ‘biggest’ member of the Union. That will give it a strong vote in the Council’s double-majority voting system. Still it would need cooperation of all the ‘big players’ in the EU to block or influence the decision process in the EU institutions. In the European Commission the influence would be equal to that of all others. The influence in the Parliament would be bigger but still wouldn’t necessarily require a restructuring of this Institution as the stability would still be guaranteed (Hughes, 2004).
Furthermore a big issue is Turkey being an Islamic country. Though this has never been an issue for other EU applicants and Albania and Bosnia haven’t been considered about that fact. For Turkey there seems to be a different attitude. The accession of Turkey would bring a huge rise to Islamic influence in the EU. Many members have considered the EU to be a Christian society and especially Christian parties are offended by the thought of Turkey as a member. Others think it could actually be a pro to include an Islamic country in the EU. Since 911 and the growing gap between western and eastern countries many regard it as essential to avoid ‘the clash of civilisations’. It could be a positive sign to the other Islamic countries that the EU is not clearly opposed to their religion (Economist, 18.09.2004).
Another important influence could be the large Turkish military which would be a strong support for the European Security and Defence Policy. Turkey has been a member of the NATO since 1952 and has already proved a strong back up for the alliance during the times of Cold War.
Geostrategic
There are not only political and economical issues regarding Turkey’s accession. Turkey’s geographical position adds to the argumentation as well. Turkey has been used by the US as ally in the oriental region and could provide the same for the EU. Turkey somehow is regarded as a “buffer-zone” between the EU and the Middle East. To take advantage of this would be a lot easier if Turkey was a member of the EU because of the substantially bigger influence on its security and foreign policy (Hughes, 2004). With allying Turkey the US influence on it could be reduced. For example regarding the Israel-Palestinian conflict Turkey’s policy is supporting Israel’s point of view. With the EU being more balanced and sometimes even pro Palestinian this could have a positive influence on Turkey as a member state, adding to a possibly peaceful development in Israel. Additionally the accession of Turkey would have a strong influence on the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Yet there hasn’t been much consensus in between the EU members. The new borders Turkey would add demand a better cooperation of the EU member states regarding CFSP (Hughes, 2004).
Cyprus is one of the main issues that have to be solved before Turkey can become a member of the EU. With Greece being a member and the unsolved issue of northern Cyprus Greece wanted to veto against Turkish accession but that changed. As a result of the failing Anan plan of 2003. It was the vote of the Greek population in the southern part of Cyprus that anticipated the reunification. Additionally Erodgan’s influence has been strengthened in the election in 2002 and he has stated his willingness to change the Cyprus policy. It seems like Turkey is trying to use Cyprus as a gambling issue for further accession talks with a good chance for success (Dorronsoro, 2004 and ).
Conclusion
Is Turkey European? As the EU accepted Turkey’s candidacy without concerns about the geographic position this has never been made an outspoken topic and to make it one now couldn’t be politically excused. Would Turkey’s influence in the EU be to big? Since size also has never been a question for a possible membership it can hardly be a question now. The experience up to now shows that the other big players in the EU couldn’t use their size to impact strongly on decisions. Adding to that Turkey’s weak economy wouldn’t allow much influence in the economic sector of the EU. Another point of view is that Turkey’s accession wouldn’t come up before 2015 (earliest possible date). At that point there will probably have been some major changes to the EU as well as to Turkey. At this point of time the EU is weak at some issues like the Common Agricultural Policy which is taking up to much of the budget, and the CFSP which hardly exists. There is an urgent need for improvements in these sectors. At the time of Turkey’s accession they have hopefully been made and with a stronger CAP and CFSP some of the negative arguments regarding Turkey will have improved.
The main point to look at has to be if Turkey is able to meet the Copenhagen criteria just like every other applicant. There can not be any double measures. By now Turkey is far ahead of Romania which is hoping to join in 2007. Implementation is a really heavy issue. The new laws that Turkey has passed have to be implemented in every region, even in the far east of the country. The problem is that Turkey can bring up that other applicants have been weak about implementation and still could join the EU. This was a mistake which probably should have not been made in the first place.
For me the most powerful argument against Turkish accession will be human rights. The improvements that have been made for Kurds and women seem rather small and there are other human right issues that haven’t been touched yet. Will Turkey ever except the Armenian genocide and treat this minority better as well? Will the Kurds ever have the same rights as the other Turks? How about freedom of religion and speech? I think Turkey still has to improve a lot to guarantee a stable democracy within its borders.
The geopolitical arguments speak for a Turkish accession. In the time of a growing gap between the Orient and West it will be an important sign that the EU is clearly secularist and can accept a strong Islamic community. On the other hand the public opinion inside the EU is very critical about that issue as the following quote summarizes:
“EU politicians face one of the toughest decisions they have ever had to take. If they say no to Turkey, they risk alienating a key ally in the Muslim world with unpredictable consequences. If they say yes, they may upset many voters at home who are already unhappy about where the EU is going” (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3719418.stm)
This December the European Council meeting will have to decide about the opening of accession talks with Turkey. At the current status of the Turkish reforms there is hardly a possibility to say no. Compared to other former applicants Turkey has reached a status that exceeds what others have reached. Furthermore to reject Turkey would have a negative influence as a sign to the Oriental world, that a prosperous Islamic country is not acceptable for the EU. As long as the EU is strong enough to demand the necessary changes that have to made to guarantee a stable democracy, this could only have positive results in a troubled region which is at least close to Europe if not within.
Literature
Dinan, Desmond, 2004:Europe Recast, A History of European Union; Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire
Dorronsoro, Giles, 2004: The EU and Turkey, Between geopolitics and social engineering in: European Union Foreign and Security Policy by: Roland Dannreuther (edt.), 2004; Routledge, London
Hughes, Kristin, 2004: Turkey And The European Union: Just Another Enlargement? Exploring The Implications Of Turkish Accession;
Unknown, 2004: The impossibility of saying no; The Economist 18.09.2004, p. 32-34
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