Czech Republic: What potential benefits and losses are there for this country if it gains EU membership?
Czech Republic: What potential benefits and losses are there for this country if it gains EU membership?
What are the potential benefits and losses for the EU if this country gains membership? Who stands to gain more by this country's membership; the country of the EU?
"The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the six Candidate Countries negotiating accession to the European Union on the basis of the decisions of the Luxembourg European Council in December 1997 - Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia - met for the third time in Budapest on 15 November 2000. They reconfirmed that their accession to the European Union is not only crucial for their own countries but a well-managed enlargement is an integral part of realizing the vision of a strong and efficient European Union." - Joint Statement, Budapest, November 15 20001
As the above statement suggests, converting from a 'candidate country' into a formally recognized member of the European Union holds both benefits and opportunities for the respective nation and the EU itself. The respective nation in this case is the Czech Republic and through this paper I shall attempt to identify those gains and losses the Czech Republic will face when moving from the status of applicant to a position of formal membership. Yet I will also address what consequences Czech membership holds for the EU itself. How will the inclusion of the Czech Republic affect intricate aspects of EU 'life' such as the Common Agricultural Policy and budget expenditure? Will the EU be able to retain its current depth whilst pursuing a policy of further enlargement? More fundamentally, I will question whether the EU actually holds sufficient resources to deal with further enlargement and, if not, what problems may emerge. All of these questions will be addressed but before I begin I must ask what is the European Union?
The EU is essentially '...the result of a process of cooperation and integration which began in 1951 between six countries (Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.) After nearly fifty years, with four waves of accessions, the EU today has fifteen member states and is currently preparing for its fifth enlargement....2 However, the above definition does not reveal exactly what functions the European Union undertakes. The mission objectives of the EU include: promoting economic and social progress, to assert the identity of the EU on the international scene, to introduce European citizenship and to develop an area of freedom, security and justice. Therefore, I now find myself asking this question: What does the Czech Republic have to gain from joining the international scene, adopting European citizenship, becoming part of an area of freedom, security and justice and becoming a target for economic and social progress? I shall now examine just what the Czech Republic has to gain from EU membership.
"For the Czech Republic, the European Union is a natural partner with who it shares similar civilization values of democracy, solidarity, respect for human rights and protection of minorities. Very important is also the geographic proximity of the EU; the Czech Republic shares the longest part of its border with two EU member states, Austria and Germany. The EU is at the same time the major market for most of the Czech exports; and, as early as the 1990's, the EU has become the country's biggest trading partner and investor. Furthermore, the Czech Republic is ready to participate in the decision-making on the peaceful future of Europe and is prepared to assume it's portion of responsibility."3 - Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic
As mentioned above, the most significant gain resulting from formal EU membership is access to European markets. EU enlargement will create the largest single market for trade and investment in the world. Incorporating 500 million consumers, the EU market will symbolize a market force greater than the USA and Japan combined4. Joining such a market will boost Czech trade, jobs and prosperity through the removal of tariff barriers on industrial goods, increased freedom for EU agricultural trade and the EU Europe Agreements, through which candidates such as the Czech Republic are already benefiting. I argue that having secured relative military security through NATO, the Czech Republic is now seeking to gain economically from joining the EU. My point is supported by a study undertaken by Baldwin, Francois and Portes who stated that joining the EU will 'make the entire region less risky from the point of view of domestic and foreign investors'5. Those countries in accession have had to accelerate institutional development and conform to best practice within the EU whilst those non-accession nations lack such market discipline. Therefore, EU membership will attract further foreign investment which will allow the Czech Republic to gain through improved prosperity and confidence.
The second benefit arising from EU membership is that the Czech Republic will travel further along the process of modernization, the consolidation of democracy playing an intricate part of this process. The experience of those Mediterranean countries that joined in the 1980's illustrated that nations which have held limited access to a pluralist democracy, civil society and which treat the rule of law in relative terms, ascending to formal membership inextricably links these nations to further modernization. In this sense the EU is an external discipline commanding internal reform and the strengthening of democratic institutions. Such discipline is ...
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The second benefit arising from EU membership is that the Czech Republic will travel further along the process of modernization, the consolidation of democracy playing an intricate part of this process. The experience of those Mediterranean countries that joined in the 1980's illustrated that nations which have held limited access to a pluralist democracy, civil society and which treat the rule of law in relative terms, ascending to formal membership inextricably links these nations to further modernization. In this sense the EU is an external discipline commanding internal reform and the strengthening of democratic institutions. Such discipline is crucial to the Czech Republic where democratic trends have been continually interrupted thus preventing the growth and consolidation of not only a liberal democracy but also democratic institutions and culture.
A significant gain will also take place on the international stage. EU membership could lead to the improvement of Czech prestige and influence on the international scene. Joining the EU at present is what joining the disco scene in the 1980's was about; it is the 'hip place to be.' Whether or not the Czech Republic will take a place on the stage or will be confined to spectator status remains to be seen but for the Czech representatives, collective action remains an attractive prospect. Whilst the United Nations, NATO, the World Trade Organization and the IMF (all of which the Czech Republic is a member) are all 'collective' in purpose, they lack the continual development which is characterized in EU initiatives such as the EMU, the Euro and the European Defense Community. Therefore, unlike the disco scene, formal EU membership is a long-term commitment, which will be both continual and progressive. The crucial question for the Czech Republic surrounds whether they will actually be able to exert influence individually or whether EU membership will be more of an 'all for on' concept with already established member states leading from the front.
The fourth and final benefit is that the Czech Republic will gain assistance in eradicating crime, corruption and discrimination. For example, to deal with the Roma problem, Czech authorities were able to implement measures and programs supported by PHARE funding and national budgetary resources6. Whilst such measures may have been implemented previously, they are now of a more sustained manner and due to the 'international' presence these measures are taking place in close co-operation with Roma representatives thus promoting the notion of political equality, representation and human rights.
Therefore, formally joining the EU is a process characterized by many benefits and opportunities. Yet I argue that the greatest gain for nations in Central and Eastern Europe such as the Czech Republic has already, to a large extent, taken place. Before formal membership is achieved the Czech Republic must first fulfill the 'Copenhagen Criteria' (which refers to those conditions, political and economic, which must be met by prospective EU states.) Just having the status of 'candidate', which the Czech Republic holds is valuable in that it helps improve internal stability as merely attempting to meet the Copenhagen criteria will result in having to employ a market economy, improving central and regional administration, implementing judicial reform, and improving human rights. Therefore, the Czech Republic will make gains merely through holding the status of 'candidate for the EU'.
Whilst the Czech Republic will gain access to markets, strengthen internal institutions, economics and improve human rights, the European Union itself will also make gains. The first gain arising from further enlargement will be an increase in the EU's heterogeneity. Diversity is a fundamental element of the richness of the common European heritage and identity. Therefore, by including such a politically and historically rich nation as the Czech Republic, this diversity within the EU will continue to grow thus further promoting the idea of European integration7.
A second benefit for the European Union will be an extended zone of stability in Eastern Europe. The EU is essentially investing in democracy and by spreading the 'pax europea' both south and east, enlargement eastwards will be the European Union's greatest contribution to security and stability for the 21st Century.8This in turn will contribute to peace and prosperity throughout the continent, though more specifically throughout Eastern Europe which traditionally resembled an obstacle to the growth of democracy and in this sense enlargement may incorporate the Machiavellian notion of 'keep your friends close but your enemies closer.'
A third gain made by the EU will be in the field of economics. Further enlargement and extension of the single market from 370 million to approximately 480 million consumers will only serve to stimulate economic growth and provide new opportunities for business throughout Europe9. One hundred million consumers, subject to market reforms such as those in the Czech Republic, will seriously benefit Western Europe where the main EU players remain. Member states already hold tangible benefits such as considerable surpluses on their export trade with candidate countries which translates into jobs, more tax revenue and improved social security systems10.
Therefore, the EU will gain through stabilizing a politically fragile region, increased diversity and an increased number of consumers already operating within a market economy. However, the inclusion of the Czech Republic and further enlargement as a whole will also cause problems and not just for the EU. Whilst the Czech Republic certainly stands to gain far more from EU membership than it stands to lose there are still many problems it may face. I shall now highlight several problems the Czech Republic may encounter as it ascends into formal membership.
My first point is concerned with the notion of 'supranationalism.' Whilst many academics have embraced the assumption that the EU will eventually resemble a 'United States of Europe' with all the democratic trimmings embodied in the EU's American sibling I disagree. The centralized and largely unaccountable position of the European Commission places serious doubts over issues such as national sovereignty and the rights of citizenry. For the Czech Republic this may cause several problems. For example, how would the Czech Republic object to policy which may affect its national interests? This is particularly relevant when you consider the following statement issued by the European Commission itself:
"The original and essential source of the success of European Integration is that the eu's executive body, the Commission, is supranational and independent from national, sectoral, or other influences (my italics). This is at the heart of its ability to advance the interests of the European Union.11"
Perhaps the Czech population has already realized such a threat against national interests. A recent poll indicated that only 39% of Czechs would currently vote to join the EU in contrast to 19% who would vote out-right against joining. With the Communist and Civic Democratic Party also voicing 'Euro-skepticism' the political and popular support looks increasingly thin and with the Czech Republic now expecting to join June 2004 in time for the European Parliament elections this could be portrayed as a negative factor.12 An example of this point is Czech authorities having to implement British immigration checks despite opposition from not only the Czech population, but also Czech President Vaclav Havel. The only reason such opposition has been kept quiet is because "...it would be seen as a major setback for Czech efforts to join the European Union..."13 Therefore a serious loss for the Czech Republic may be less importance attached to immediate Czech interests, priority instead going to the EU 'state' as a whole.
Yet I argue that the EU could stand to lose a great deal more from Czech membership than the Czech Republic does itself. Europe cradles a variety of cultures, religions and political systems that may be praised for their diversity but must also be treated with extreme care. Any serious unrest or conflict could directly affect the European Union through mass migration, increased defense spending and changes in the way foreign investors view opportunities. Economic decline or recession in the east could prove a burden to the west. Yet through highlighting the following losses that may face the EU I argue that whilst the benefits of enlargement are long term and tangible, the costs are immediate, concrete and well within EU capabilities. For the EU, the following losses will be placed against the notion that applicant nations such as the Czech Republic have more potential than reality and it is with this point in mind that the reader should approach the issue of EU enlargement.
The most intriguing question is concerned with the process of 'deepening Europe' and how this process may prove disadvantageous to the EU. How will the European Union successfully combine a deepening and widening of the EU? The path towards an answer holds risks and numerous dangers. From inefficient decision making to a weakening of the core EU institutions, 'euroskeptics' are heavily armed with plenty of ammunition. Yet I argue that the EU has already made its decision and this decision is one heavily favoring a deepening as opposed to a widening of the European Union. The establishment of the EMU (European Monetary Union), the introduction of the 'euro' and the subsequent abolishment of national currencies can all be used to support my argument. For a candidate such as the Czech Republic, joining the euro is only an option after obtaining formal membership and meeting further convergence criteria. Such a process, I argue, will ensure the continuing strength and survival of the multi-tier structure of the EU. However, I will end this point will a word of caution for the EU. At present the EU will have little difficulty in absorbing a few, even half a dozen, new members. However, as the EMU and internal market add further distance between the economic EU and the political EU (both very distinct entities), and as thirteen candidates wait eagerly for news, sooner rather than later a formal constitution will have to be constructed. If this does not occur then again, the decision making capabilities and even individual institutions are at stake and this poses a grave threat to the EU.
A second loss, which the EU may face, is with regards to the uncertainty that will surround new members. As candidates move towards a position of official membership, many established EU states may, if not already, begin to question what stance these new nations will take on various issues. For example, what stance will the Czech Republic take on controversial issues such as cross-border transactions or the recent 'cyber crime' treaty? Such uncertainty could manifest itself in the form of internal divisions between member states competing for the loyalty of applicant nations. For example, whilst Bulgaria and Germany have held traditionally close ties, EU spectators will have recently been able to hear French overtures towards Bulgaria. Therefore, a possible loss for EU member states is uncertainty over what position new member states such as the Czech Republic may take, in turn leading to internal divisions thus weakening the political cohesion of the EU.
Another loss for the EU may come in the form of immigration. The European Union has long held the principle 'freedom of movement' close to its heart. However, in April 2001 the EC recommended that full freedom of labor and population should be delayed for up to seven years. The question is why? When German Chancellor Schroeder stated in March 2001 that 'there are fears and concerns in Germany about eastern enlargement' he was referring to the fact that many western members, most notably Austria and Germany who share their borders with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, remain very cautious over labor movement and immigration as a whole. EU enlargement could bring four to six million foreigners into Germany over 15 years and, according to a German economist, such migration would result in the risk of job losses to immigrants rising by about 20%.14
A fourth loss to the EU is with regard to the European Commission's annual Regular Report 2001 which is primarily designed around post-communist candidate countries of which there are currently ten applying for EU membership. The report states that whilst "...the government has taken steps to improve the functioning of central and regional administrations.... the Czech Republic continues to lack a civil service act for its public administration, an essential tool for the establishment of independence, professionalism and stability."15 Therefore, with the expected joining of the Czech Republic to the EU occurring within two years I argue that through allowing candidate nations to join with conditions still questionable, the EU is weakening its resistance against other nations who also fail to meet the criteria.
A final loss for the EU may arrive from its capacity to absorb new members whilst maintaining the momentum of European integration16. This point is distinct from the widening versus deepening debate outlined above primarily due to the fact that should the EU not hold sufficient resources to ensure successful absorption then there will be no such debate on whether the EU will retain its depth. The EU is currently facing ten associated countries of central and Eastern Europe. Does this political body hold the resources to ensure a successful transition and the implementation of those institutions required? The fact is, we simply do not know. I argue that this in itself must be a loss. The impact of nations such as the Czech Republic joining will depend on the economic performance of the EU. This in turn depends upon the economic success of candidate countries, the international environment, agricultural and energy prices, the Common Agricultural and structural policies, the date of accessions, the effort displayed during the pre-accession period and the nature of transition itself. There remains a great deal of uncertainty on a number of vital issues, which will directly affect the impact of candidate nations such as the Czech Republic joining the European Union. Alongside these problems, the reader may like to consider the lack of an official document such as the mythical 'EU ' constitution and question whether this may in fact help or further hinder the uncertainties mentioned above.
In evaluation, I have examined how both the Czech Republic and the European Union will gain from the Czech accession to formal EU membership. For the Czech Republic, many of these gains can already be identified as they adjust to meet the Copenhagen Criteria. Czech internal institutions are already being adjusted so that they can respond efficiently to issues such as human rights and structural reform. Further gains such as increased foreign investment and overall stability, I argue, will gradually increase as the Czech Republic develops a partnership with western democratic states. For the EU, the accession of the Czech Republic will further add to EU diversity whilst also stabilizing a region in close proximity to the EU heartland. As the Czech Republic consolidates its position over time, the EU will also be able to take advantage of an increased number of consumers and readily available labor force. Therefore, there are gains that both the EU and the Czech Republic will make from formal Czech membership.
However, I have also identified possible losses. The internal stability achieved through meeting the conditions for EU membership within the Czech Republic may well be undermined through declining popular support for further EU integration, a level of support which is the lowest amongst all of the candidate countries. Despite these risks, the Czech Republic stands to gain far more from EU membership than it stands to lose.
For the European Union any possible losses are intricately tied to the process of enlargement as a whole. Fundamental questions over the affects of enlargement upon the depth of the EU, whether the EU should adopt a formal constitution and how individual EU member states will react to successful applicants are crucial to the EU debate and although I have addressed each one, the reader will appreciate that such matters deserve individual attention. However, if I could leave the reader with one thought it would be this; for the EU further enlargement of any size represents potential and in this light gains will not be immediate but will become apparent over time. For the EU priority lies with developing a strategy so that this time can be used to ensure the continual depth of EU institutions and EU 'life'.
Joint Statement - Budapest, November 15, 2000. Obtained at: www.mfa.gov.hu
2 The ABC of the European Union, The European Union Online. Obtained at: http://www.europa.eu.int
3 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic. Obtained at http;//www.mzv.cz
4 The Benefits of Enlargement, Speech by FCO Minister for Europe Peter Hain. Tuesday, 24 July, 2001. Obtained through: http://www.zeit.de
5 Centre for Economic Policy Research. Obtained at: http://www.cepr.org
6 PHARE is one of three pre-accession instruments financed by the EC to assist the applicant countries of central Europe in their preparations for joining the EU
7 The Effects of the Union's policies of Enlargement to the Applicant Countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Obtained at: http://www.eubfn.com
8 The Challenge of EU Enlargement, Center for European Reform, CER 2000. Obtained at: http://www.cer.org.uk
9 The costs and Benefits of EU enlargement Centre for Economic Policy Research. Obtained at: http://www.cepr.org.uk
0 Enlargement Strategy Paper. http://europa.eu.int
1 April 2000 White Paper, "Reforming the Commission". As quoted in: Europe in the Balance, Lee A. Casey and David B.Rivkin Jr. Policy Review Online: www.policy review.org
2 First eastern members will join in June 2004 in what academics are now referring to as the 'Big Bang' enlargement, which will include ten members (Bulgaria and Romania will not be in this cast.) Refer to: Heading for a Big Bang, Prospects for EU enlargement, according to the Commission's progress reports, Heather Grabbe,CER, 13 November 2001: http://www.cer.org.uk
3 UK re-imposes Czech asylum controls, 08/27/01. Article obtained at: www.bbc.co.uk
4 Immigration Laws: May 2001 - Number #7. Obtained at: http://www.migrationint.com
5 Highlights from the 2001 EC Regular Reports. Obtained through Transitions Online (TOL.)
6 The Effects on the Union's policies of Enlargement to the Applicant Countries of Central and Eastern Europe: http://www.eubfn.com
Matthew James Goodwin
