The media has a significant impact on voting behaviour. Analyse and evaluate this statement. [25 marks]

stating, “If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights,” alluding to their preference against Neil Kinnock (leader of the Labour Party). Following the Conservatives’ victory at this election, the Sun published a headline “it’s the Sun wot won it.” This demonstrates the influence that media endorsements can have on voting behaviour, ultimately affecting the outcome of general elections. Taken in parallel to the 1997 general election, when the Sun switched to backing the Labour Party, and a similar result can be seen, with Labour winning a huge majority. Thus, the influence of media endorsements is notable when considering the above examples. However, when considering that these examples are now over 20 years old, and readership of newspapers has decreased by over 50% since 2010, the influence of newspapers and their political endorsements can be seen to be an outdated method of influencing voting behaviour, so overall when judging the extent of the media’s influence on voting behaviour today, this factor is fairly limited, and so the media’s influence on voting behaviour is therefore restricted. The media’s ability to affect the image of a party leader can also allude to some influence on voting behaviour. The Conservatives lost many seats at the 2017 general election. This was due in part to a TV interview of leader Theresa May, in which she said the “naughtiest thing she’d ever done” was “run through a field of wheat”, with many describing her as a laughing stock after this. This led to an increase in votes for Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn, who was viewed more favourable by the media as a leader for young people’s concerns, such as student loans and housing. Had the media played a limited role in general elections, the Conservative’s loss, if a loss at all, would have been far smaller, but media coverage of the Conservatives’ campaign was negative. Furthermore, a notorious TV debate in which every part leader was present except for Theresa May played heavily against the Conservatives, as May was seen by many to not care about the campaign. Therefore, several factors within the media had a role in shaping the image of Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May, and so credit can be given to the media’s role in determining voting behaviour. However, the influence of the media is limited when taken in parallel to other factors that affect the way in which people vote. One of these factors is rational choice. The Rational Choice Model assumes that voters make up their mind dependent on policies and pledges that parties and candidates make in their manifestos. This can be clearly seen following the 2019 general election. The Conservatives promised to withdraw the UK from the EU by January 2020 with a majority. Labour, on the other hand, promised a confusing renegotiation and second referendum pledge. This caused many voters in Labour’s traditional ‘red wall’ of Northern England, who voted to leave the EU, to vote for the Conservatives, leading to a 1.2% increase in Conservative vote and 7.9% drop in Labour vote. In comparison to other elections, rational choice and valence, where voters vote based on their opinions of policy, were pivotal factors at the 2019 general election, and therefore had a far greater influence on voting behaviour than that of the media. Whilst the media still had a role in presenting manifesto promises to the public through highlighting important issues, this had to be done in a neutral and non-partisan way. Thus, it can be argued that the media has a limited influence on voting behaviour in the 21st century, when taken in comparison to other factors such as rational choice and valence. In addition, demographic factors such as age and ethnicity are playing a huge role in determining voting behaviour in recent elections. Studies by YouGov after the 2017 general election determined that for every 10 years older a voter was, the likelihood they voted Conservative increased by 9%. This shows the importance of age in determining how people vote, which can feed into several factors. Older people are more likely to vote Conservative due to their prioritisation of making small meaningful changes, rather than Labour’s radical and vast changes that are promised at general elections. Additionally, people’s ethnicity explains voting behaviour, with 65% of non-white voters preferring the Labour Party in the 2017 general election. This demonstrates a departure from the influence of the print media having prevalence in the 1990s, with demographic factors now determining voting behaviour in the 21st century. Therefore, the influence of the media when considering other factors is limited. To conclude, the media does play a role in determining voting behaviour, such as portraying the party leader and through newspaper endorsements. However, this role is limited when considering other factors, such as age, ethnicity, and rational choice; these factors are where voting behaviour is mostly determined in the 21st century. Therefore, the media’s influence on voting behaviour is limited.