Break-even Analysis.

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Break – even Analysis

To work out my profit (or loss) for the first year of business, I have to compare two things – the expected level of sales taken from my cash flow forecast and the break – even point on the break – even analysis graphs.

My cash flow forecast shows that for the first year of business, my expected level of sales will be approximately £58,800.  This is the approximate income for the sale of 29,400 drinks in the first year.

The expected level of sales is worked out using the number of drinks each person will buy, the number of customers per week, the price of these drinks (on the assumption that there is no special offers, and all drinks are full price), and the number of weeks in each month.  The formula for each month looks like this: -

                

 

To work out the number of drinks which I will sell in the first year, I used following formula:-

The break - even point of my graph, when the price is £2.00, shows that I should be making £72,000 and selling 36,000 drinks within my first of business.  These figures are only rough estimates.

Having got figures from both my cash flow forecast and break – even graphs for both my total income and total number of drinks, I am able to say that my business, from these figures, will be a making a loss of (-£13,200).  Also I do not have the required number of drinks to break – even in the first year.

The cash flow chart shows my bar’s expenses and income over the first year of business.  The first three months of the year (March to May), there will be no income as the ‘builders’ will be in, but a lot of spending will be done during this time.  Throughout the months of November and December, my bar will make the most money (approximately £22,000) as it’ll be Christmas and there will probably be offers on drinks to attract more customers.  There will be three times the number of customers in December as there were in June.  Over the first year of business, with all the financial information that I have been given, I predict from my cash flow, that I will make a loss of approximately £10,000.  This would be because the bar itself will not be very well known, which will lead to fewer people coming to see what it offers, which will lead to less income coming into my bar.  Also in the first year of business I will be spending money on things that I won’t be spending money on in the second year of business, unless of course I refurbish the layout and all the fixtures, this means that there is an extra £20,000 to play around with.  This will mean that my net cash flow will very rarely be in the red (negatives).

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Cash flow forecasts are used to estimate a business’ expenditure and income.  For new business like this one, a cash flow forecast can help to answer questions like ‘is the venue feasible?, ‘how much capital is needed?’, ‘which are going to be the most dangerous months?’ etc.  However, for existing businesses, this is important as it can help recognize the amount and timing of any cash flow problems later on in the future of the business.  The cash flow forecast can also help to assess new orders and projects.  The cash flow can also help businesses to see where there ...

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