Ultimately, the alliance system proved to be very unstable and incomplete, as, in the case of Italy, countries just changed their political partners or ignored certain policies in the conditions set forth in the different treaties, as for example Russia and Austria Hungary did during the July Crisis in 1914. Hence, it is true to say that, according to the situation among the different European nations, a war was inevitable, especially a two front war of the European central countries, Germany and Austria-Hungary against the East and West of Europe, as one can see by using the example of the Franco-Russian Alliance from the 18th August 1892, which was also one cause of WWI in 1914. The result of this secret coalition, which was not published until 1918, was that Russian hostility against Germany was now virtually assured and that a two-front war now became a real threat for Germany, which in response to this started to develop the Schlieffen plan. Thus, by looking on the different alliances till 1914, one can conclude that the reason why WWI actually broke out in 1914 and not earlier is that most of the alliances hadn’t really solidified and till 1914, the main goal of all European countries was to maintain the balance of power, as Europe consisted of a multi-polar system and each country feared the loss of territory. Additionally, the situation was very confusing, as so many alliances were formed between the different European countries that it was hard to overview the situation, therefore no country didn’t want to risk a war, not knowing against whom they are actually fighting. A good example for this case would be the Anglo-Japanese Alliance on the 30th January 1902, where Britain formed an association with Japan in order to have an ally against Russia and France. But later, in 1907, the Triple Entente was signed between Britain, France and Russia, where all three, in 1902 still being enemies, now became allies against Germany and Austria-Hungary. It can be argued that WWI could possibly have erupted in 1907, when the Triple Entente was formed because then, the Schlieffen plan was already finished and Germany could have theoretically understood the Triple Entente as an offensive act and thus, as a reason to start war in order to prevent the Kaiser’s theory of „Einkreisung“. However, Germany didn’t start war at this point of time because it believed that it was not necessary to risk a war in terms of not appearing as the aggressor, as Europe was still aiming to find a balance of power.
Another reason for the outbreak of WWI was the increasing militarism between the European powers before 1914. The country which had actually initiated it was Germany. Wilhem I. and Bismarck feared, as already stated above, a two front war against France and Russia, hence they developed the Schlieffen Plan in order to prevent such a case. Additionally, knowing the great strength of the British navy, Germany decided to build a powerful navy too, similar to Britain’s and even better. Seeing Germany’s increasing armament, France and Russia joined Germany in the arms race, which resulted in a huge advancement in military technology due to the industrialisation at that time. The reason why WWI didn’t actually break out at this time was that before 1910, Germany still thought that it could win this arms race and hence, they didn’t want to risk a premature war while being on the peak of their industrial conjuncture. The same thing applied for France, Britain, Austria-Hungary and Russia, whose industrial production dramatically increased in those years, too. Additionally, as already stated in the paragraph about the alliance system, a balance of power was still of priority for many countries in Europe, especially in the case of military capability. Hence, one might say that the wish for a balance of power was to some extent a cause for the military build up in Europe and therefore it was also to some extent a reason why WWI didn’t erupt earlier than 1914.
Another cause of WWI was the extensive popularity of nationalism during that time. Nationalism enhanced the formation of Germany and its rapid military build up which was seen and favoured by the German population as a sign of German strength against the other European powers. Furthermore, it also contributed to the formation of the alliance systems, which was due to the fact that countries wanted to appear stronger, having a strong ally country at their side to protect or just help them in case of war. As a result of this, the masses got also involved in politics, as their national pride, especially the Germans’ as a newly united country, told them to protect and support their home country. This became clear in the propaganda the different countries used against each other in order to gain popular support from the masses. However, war didn’t break out there because there was still a spark missing which would set the whole bush in fire. This finally happened due to the assassination of Franz Ferdinand in 1914. Austria Hungary had to defend its pride and Russia couldn’t allow Austria-Hungary to punish Serbia, as it saw itself as a protector of the Slavish people. Additionally, nationalism also contributed to the spread of colonialism in Africa and Asia, which was one further cause of WWI, as the more territory a country possessed the better it was seen by other countries, and hence, this country gained a “place at the sun”. The colonial rivalry, which was existing in Europe and Africa due to the imperialistic and nationalist notions between the European nations further increased the probability of a war. However, the war didn’t take place before 1914 although there were several cases where this could have probably happened, as for example during the Moroccan Crises from 1905-1911, where Germany and France disputed over their colonial right over Morocco. At this time, Europe was standing at the brick of WWI because France saw Germany’s actions as offensive and ultimately demanded war in order to keep their “face”. The tensions were already very tough between both countries because of the Franco-Prussian War in 1870 till 1871. However, war didn’t break out there because it could be prevented by the Morocco-Congo Agreement in November 1905, where France got Morocco and Germany Congo. Although this was not what Germany wanted, they pulled back as they realized that Britain was standing behind France and hence, Germany didn’t want to risk a war yet because they weren’t ready in their navy armament. However, this crisis marked the beginning of war atmosphere in Europe. Furthermore, WWI almost break out in 1912 when the German General Staff pushed Wilhem II. to start a war in order to prevent the case of “Einkreisung”, as all the signs were pointing for this. However, Wilhem II. refused to this proposal, as he probably waited for an obvious reason to start a war, as well as France did for Germany. Hence, one can say that WWI didn’t break out in 1907 and 1912 because the countries still considered to wait for a reason to start a war, as no country wanted to appear aggressive, but rather offensive.
The final cause of WWI was the assassination Franz Ferdinand on the 28th June 1914 in Sarajevo by a Serbian terrorist. The assassination proved to be the spark which set the whole situation in Europe in fire. Before in June-August 1913, most of the European countries had started to militarily build up because of the second Balkan crisis during this time. As they had already militarized, they didn’t have to wait to build up in 1914 after the assassination, as for example Germany and France had already done it. Hence, war was inevitable because of economic issues, as the war industry had already produced so much material that the countries were somehow pushed to make use of all the machinery, guns etc.. Furthermore, Austria-Hungary, which set an ultimatum to Serbia which wasn’t fullfilled, had to move to war because it would have lost its face and prestige in front of world politics if it would have resigned to punish Serbia for the assassination. Furthermore, Russia couldn’t step out of this problem, as it had to help Serbia in case of war. Additionally, public opinion made it impossible for Russia to resign, as it can be seen in the Willy-Nicky Telegrams from 29th June till 1st August 1914. There, Tsar Nicholas says that it’s impossible for him “to leave the Serbs alone as the Russians feel bound to their Slavish neighbors”. One the other hand, Germany and France were bound to their allies, Austria-Hungary and Russia, and hence they also had to support their allies. Therefore, one can say that through the alliance systems, countries like France and Germany were forced to move to war. Additionally, all the other factors like nationalism, colonial rivalry etc.compressed in this one event and the countries now couldn’t go back. Furthermore, tensions had been already very tough, therefore, the assassination gave Germany and France the “final reason” to move against each other and the same thing applied for Austria-Hungary and Russia.
In general, one might say that the various factors like militarism, nationalism, imperialism, the alliance system and finally the assassination of Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo had contributed to the final outbreak of WWI in 1914. It is possible to say that war might have started earlier, as for example during the Moroccan Crisis in 1905 or the Balkan Crisis in 1913. However, a reason why war didn’t break out there was that the countries weren’t sure enough whether to start an offensive war or not, as nobody wanted, as already pointed out above, aggressive, as the former goal of European statesmen was to reach a “balance of power” in Europe. As one can see, this didn’t work out at the end because of the colonial rivalry between the European powers in Africa. Additionally, countries like France and Germany were lacking an “obvious reason” to start a war against each other, therefore one can argue that war could have probably broken out before 1914 if the assassination of Franz Ferdinand would have happened at these points of time. Another reason why WWI didn’t erupt before 1900 was that the alliances hadn’t really solidified and European statesmen, as for example Bismarck, were concerned to preserve the balance of power in Europe as it still consisted of a muli-polar system. Additionally, another reason why WWI didn’t start earlier was that Kaiser Wilhem wanted to expand his army and navy, in the hope that other states could be intimidated into giving Germany what it „deserved“, as for example using war threats to secure gains, as the Moroccan Crisis in 1905. But he and the German General Staff didn‘t realize that other states would react to these actions by increasing their own forces, ultimately causing an „arms race“. By around 1912, it became clear for Germany that it was losing this race, particularly as Russia was rapidly becoming an industrial power. Thus, the German General Staff knew that with each year, Germany was getting weaker relative to its likely enemies. Thus, if there was a war, it should happen sooner rather than later. Besides this, Europe came extremely close to going to war in 1912, when the armies were mobilized on all sides because of the second Balkan crisis. But finally, no country moved to war because nobody wanted to do the first step. Nevertheless, similar if smaller war scares, as for example the Moroccan crises, happened a couple other times. It can be argued that by 1914, the European powers had come to the conclusion that there were so many war scares that war would happen sooner or later, and, from the point of view of the German General Staff, in that case it may as well be sooner. So the next big spark, which was the assasination of Franz Ferdinand in 1914, finally caused WWI. On the contrary, it is possible to argue that WWI could have broken out without needing the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. In Fischer’s point-of-view, Germany was pursuing an „aggressive Weltpolitik“. Hence, Germany willed the war in order to realize its expansionist ambitions in Africa and to resolve an acute domestic crisis. Additionally, the fear of „Einkreisung“ meant for Germany to go to war, as from a military point-of-view, „a moment so favourable might never occur again“. Additionally, Germany pushed Austria-Hungary into war because of the Blank Cheque, which to some extent, put pressure on Austria-Hungary in the Serbian affair. Hence, one can conclude that if Austria-Hungary wouldn’t have waited so long, Germany would have gone earlier to war, together with Austria-Hungary as its ally. But as Austria-Hungary hesitated in this issue, Germany couldn’t go earlier because then it would have lacked a necessary partner in its war.
On the other hand, one can argue that Fischer’s theory is too theoretical, as German policies before 1914 seemed very contradictory. Furthermore, there is no evidence that the German General Staff helped expansionist aims before the “September Program”, which Fischer interpreted as Germany’s desire for war. In conclusion, one can say that in general, the alliance system, colonialism, nationalism and militarism significantly contributed to the outbreak of WWI in 1914, as they all literally “smoothed” the path for a war by increasing the tensions between the European powers. However, one can reason that WWI didn’t actually occur earlier than 1914 because all these causes didn’t really have the final stroke which should have evoked WWI earlier.
The final event, which started WWI was the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, and at this point of time, the factors named above all came together so that war became virtually inevitable, as no country could now pull back, as they were all “sitting in the same boat” because of the various components.
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