A simulation study of the Mark-Recapture Method by using Lincolns index

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Ishaan Khanna                                                                                                      Candidate Number: 002603-011

ESS Practical Planning

A simulation study of the Mark-Recapture Method by using Lincoln’s index.

Research Question: How does the accuracy of the mark recapture method get affected by varying the number of marked individuals?

Hypothesis: At the end of the experiment we should be getting the exact population in the beaker.

Input Variable: Number of marked individuals

Output Variable: Number of extracted marked individuals

Method: A simulation study of the Mark-Recapture method by using Lincoln’s index. First we put a random number of seeds into a jar. Then we start from a certain number say ‘M’, and we extract that number from it and mark them. We replace the seeds back in the jar and shuffle them. We then choose a number ‘C’ and take that number of seeds out of the jar. Then we write down ‘R’ which is the number of marked seeds within ‘C’. Then we replace the seeds back in the jar. Thus we write down ‘R’ after increasing ‘M’ by 1.

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The following formula is used for the readings taken:


M =number of marked seeds added


C= number of seeds taken out

R= marked seeds found

Carry this out 10 times for more accuracy.

Materials required: 1 beaker. Up to 50 seeds and 50 marked seeds.

Raw Data

Processed Data

Correlation Coefficient via MS Excel: 0.430513

Sourced from: “Mathematical Studies by Stephen Bedding via Oxford University Press”. Graphe and Correlation done via Microsoft Excel 2010.

Average population: 109.9

Actual Population: 223

Discussion: When 11 ...

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