Even though Trotsky was favored by Lenin, had control of the Red Army, and was a respected intellectual, he still underestimated Stalin and was outmaneuvered by his tactics. What is ironic about this is that he seemed aware of Stalin’s maneuvers for power, “He [Stalin] has the deserved reputation of an old revolutionary. He has will and daring. Right now he is organizing around himself the snakes of the Party, the artful dodgers.” This suggests that Trotsky was well aware of the threat posed by Stalin, leaving two options, either he was too “self-assured” as Lenin said, or he was more interested in preserving the party than in rising to its leadership. Trotsky’s biographer, I. Deutscher mentions in his writings, “The truth is that Trotsky refrained from attacking Stalin because he felt secure.” However a reasonable explanation could be that Trotsky was extremely loyal to both the party and to Lenin that he did not take a hard-line position in fear of creating splits in the party. This dedication is shown through both his anti-Semitism towards himself, he once declined a governmental post saying, “it would give enemies ground for claiming that the country was ruled by a Jew,” and his high regard for Lenin’s policies, on which he wrote many books praising Marxism-Leninism. Furthermore, none of the contenders regarded Stalin as a major threat at first, he was referred to as Comrade Card-Index, and a “dull, grey slate.” Trotsky especially so, did not pay regard to the threat of Stalin’s increasing power base. Regardless of Trotsky’s motivation however, the results were the same, he lost his support in the party and was eventually exiled.
Trotsky’s main shortcomings were offset by Stalin’s strengths – mainly – but also Kamenev and Zinoviev’s at the beginning. Stalin had built up a strong power base first by controlling party membership through the Lenin Enrolment. This had been a series of structural changes to the party’s membership, which had been conducted under Stalin’s supervision. This allowed him to weed out elements who were sympathetic to Trotsky, and replace them with poor, uneducated proletarians who supported him instead. Second, Stalin took control of the party’s organization, by gaining the ability to select the delegates attending the annual party congress. He could then fill the congress with again, his supporters. Lastly, Stalin also had positions in the Orgburo and the Secretariat. As the General Secretary of the party he was aware of all happenings and could control what was discussed and what information the other party members were given. This power gave him the ability to ‘deliver the vote’ in party assemblies. He was also involved in publishing the Communist newspaper, Pravda, which gave him a suitable platform for propaganda. Despite this, Stalin was underestimated by all the other contenders. In the opinion of historian J. N. Westwood, Stalin was content to “stand back and watch his rivals dig their own graves, occasionally offering his spade to one or other of them.” Kamenev and Zinoviev were also at first important in their opposition to Trotsky, they were chairmen of the Moscow and Petrograd Soviets, as well as Kamenev being President of the Central Executive Committee and Zinoviev head of the Comintern. When Kamenev and Zinoviev allied with Stalin against Trotsky, their respective power bases and their voices in the assembly were significant in gaining support for Stalin.
Evidently then, Trotsky’s initial position in the power struggle was weak compared to the other contenders, Stalin, Zinoviev and Kamenev. A number of misjudgments, or unsuccessful decisions, on Trotsky’s part further contributed to his defeat, the first of which was his failure to attend Lenin’s funeral. In Trotsky’s autobiography, My Life, he states, “I was told: ‘The funeral will be on Saturday, you can’t get back in time, and so we advise you to continue your treatment.’ Accordingly, I had no choice. As a matter of fact, the funeral did not take place until Sunday, and I could easily have reached Moscow by then… I was deceived... The conspirators surmised correctly that I would never think of verifying it.” Whether Trotsky’s account of the deception is reliable or not is of course, an issue of debate, however whether it be his decision not to attend or his decision not to verify his information, Trotsky at this prime opportunity made an unfortunate choice that tainted his image as Lenin’s right-hand man. Stalin took advantage of this however, and was able to attend the funeral as well as deliver a speech that made him appear to be Lenin’s ‘torch-bearer’, “In leaving us, Comrade Lenin ordered us to maintain and strengthen the dictatorship of the proletariat. We vow to thee, Comrade Lenin, to exert our full strength in honoring thy command.” Stalin’s speech was crucial to his promotion of himself as the ideal successor to Lenin, and Trotsky’s absence at the funeral allowed him to be accused of being unconcerned with Lenin, weakening his bid to be his successor and missing a key opportunity for strengthening his support base. In this case, Trotsky’s ill-judgment translated directly into loss of support.
Furthermore, Trotsky once again was idle when Lenin’s Testament was suppressed. The reasons for this are unclear, although again it is possible that Trotsky did not want to create factionalism or weaken the party. Releasing Lenin’s Testament would have weakened the other contenders’ positions much more than it would have weakened Trotsky’s, since Lenin clearly favored Trotsky as the most competent leader. Instead of seizing the opportunity to improve his position, Trotsky missed a valuable chance to build support for his policies.
Trotsky’s lack of support, and choice to pursue paths such as campaigning against bureaucratization, which failed to attract the attention of the party members, led to his removal as a candidate for leadership. Stalin’s pragmatism and opportunism however, on the other side of the spectrum, allowed him to be victorious in the power struggle and go on to become a major leader of Communist Russia. However, it is clear that Trotsky’s misjudgments were not the only cause of his failure, Trotsky’s initial position was much weaker than Lenin’s, and his unwillingness to take hard stances out of fear of dividing the party held him back. Trotsky’s misjudgments then played a minor role in his failure, but the true cause was his lack of future vision and disregard for the need for party support.
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