Why do people believe in astrology?

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Why do people believe in astrology?

Astrology has been defined as the study of relationships between the stars and human affairs. The belief that the heavens can influence life on earth goes back to almost every society in history. Ancient people must have learned that observations of the stars and planets could predict the coming of the seasons, when to plant crops, when certain animals would give birth and numerous other events vital to survival. It seemed natural that the positions of the heavenly bodies could predict, or even influence, human behaviour. Although it is not such a dominant influence in society as it once was, astrology is still popular. Typically a quarter of the population believes in it. Discussion will try to answer the question why people believe in astrology, focusing on two main reasons: because they think it works and is valid, and because of psycho/social reasons.

One reason why people believe in astrology and think it works is that they think it can be used to help understand personality and give accurate personality predictions. Most people only read their own horoscope so do not realise how vague they actually are and that the traits suggested by signs are in fact universal. Everybody behaves in each of these ways at various times, so no matter what your sign is it will agree with a trait you already possess. If astrologers can predict someone’s personality from their birth chart (and thus the position of the stars and planets at the time of birth) as suggested, then astrologers using charts should consistently outperform astrologers not using charts, i.e. those just guessing.

A study by Dean (1985) tested this. From a selection of 1,198 subjects who had taken the Eysenck Personality Inventory, 60 of each of the most extroverted, introverted, stable and unstable were chosen (these characteristics were used as they are thought to be the most major and enduring personality characteristics and are considered by astrologers to be easily discernible in a birth chart). Astrologers were asked to indicate which extreme they thought each subject was and how confident they were. The astrologers given birth charts were found to perform at chance level (in fact they performed slightly worse than those without charts) and there was lack of agreement. Judgements made with high confidence were no better than those made with low confidence. Therefore astrologers with birth charts can predict personality no better than chance.

The basis of personality prediction is also a bit dubious. Modern astrologers claim their ‘science’ is not based on magical associations, but its history shows this to be false. Astrology flourished in Ancient Greece where they deified the planets. People where meant to take on the characteristics of the god they were born under. The associations were never based on empirical research but still form the basis for modern astrological predictions.

People also believe that astrology can make accurate predictions in general. After any notable event articles appear in astrology journals showing correspondence between the event and its astrological chart. However, this means nothing unless the chart can predict the event in advance. Hunter and Derr (1978 in Dean, 1991) analysed a total of 240 earthquake predictions by 27 astrologers and found their accuracy to be worse than guessing. Culver and Ianna (1984 in Dean, 1991) surveyed 3,011 specific predictions made from 1974-1979 in U.S. astrology magazines. Only 338 (11%) were correct, and many of these could be attributed to shrewd guesses, vagueness or inside information. Reverchon (1971 in Dean, 1991) surveyed a series of predictions made by the renowned French astrologer Andre Barbault in a French astrological journal. He concluded “what was announced did not happen, what happened was not announced.” Studies have therefore not supported the theory that astrology can be used to accurately predict events.

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Astrology is also used to aid career choices. In the early 1980s Alan Smithers (in Hoggart and Hutchinson, 1995) examined the jobs and birth dates of 2.3 million people listed in Britain’s 1971 national census. The results were reported over four days in The Guardian in March 1984. Before beginning analyses 16 expert astrologers made predictions of the correlations that would be found. The results were marginally better than chance. However this could be partly explained by seasonal trends. A 10% sample from the same census showed that the professional and managerial classes in Britain are significantly more likely ...

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