Airport Planning In an Uncertain Future.

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MSc Air Transport Management - Module 4: Airports and Air Traffic Management

Airport Planning
In an Uncertain Future

Andrew Allison

Student Number: ft076160

Lecturer: Rodney Fewings

Submission Date: 28th November 2003


Executive Summary

The report examines the Importance of the aviation industry to the United Kingdom through Employment, which in turn directly affects the economies around surrounding airports. It is forecasted that growth will continue in the industry to 500 million passengers by 2030. This would bring huge problems to the United Kingdom where this capacity would not be able to be met by existing infrastructure. The government has played an influential role in developing a strategy of sustainable development, which takes into account the need for growth as well as environmental considerations. Both these factors will have an impact on the airport operator where currently they are subject to constraints by government on expanding facilities through New Runways and Terminal expansion. It is anticipated that introducing emission charges will aviation to pay its external costs but also will affect an airports operations through airlines changing their network strategies with an emphasis on larger aircraft in congested airports while than the emphasis on frequency.


Contents


CHAPTER ONE: Introduction

Currently airport operators have a hard task in planning for the future due to having to plan in the long term owing to the vast amounts of time in planning and building of infrastructure. Both government polices and environmental issues are impacting against the industry in the UK currently, which directly affect the airport operator. The largest impact being the current congestion of the airports in the South East of England and the Environmental Impacts of the industry.

Today the government highlights the importance of air transport growth but now accept that air transport like the majority of other modes of transportation have an affect on the surrounding environment be it through noise or pollution.

In recent years it has been the railways and the motor vehicle within the United Kingdom that have come under scrutiny for being un-environmentally friendly. This was probably due to the cutting edge technology employed in aircraft engines that it was deemed that they were environmentally friendly with reduced emissions. This is now proven not to be the case and such an industry has an impact on the environment to the extent that opposition has occurred to its continued growth.

1.1 Problem Definition

Air travel to the United Kingdom is valuable in that not only does it directly contribute to the economy and GDP of the nation but also indirectly through employment in the industry and various related industries, which rely on such forms of transport.

The airports in the United Kingdom although privatised are controlled by government regulation in order to keep the industry in the best public interest. This in affect constrains the ability of the aviation industry to grow in order to meet demand. This is because the positives and negatives to the economy and society need to be established and assessed which often runs in lengthy planning requirements.

It is now widely accepted that the environment needs to be considered where such industries contribute to the disturbance of the environment around them. This can be through:

  • Noise
  • Pollution
  • Congestion

But at the same time aviation contributes towards the United Kingdom through:

  • Employment
  • Social Benefits
  • Inward Investment

While both such factors are important it is inevitable that aviation will grow. With this in mind airport operators have a hard task in planning for the future especially when they are subject to policies and influences of the Government.

1.2 Aims and Objectives

The report aims to outline the following:

  • To establish the importance of aviation

  • The Future Forecasts for growth of the Air Industry in the UK

  • The Influence of Government Polices

  • The Affect on the airport operator


CHAPTER TWO: The Current Situation

The Consultation papers issued by the government on the future of aviation all state that growth in the aviation industry will continue at an ever-increasing rate. Boeing the aircraft manufacturer states that “Global air passenger traffic is forecast to increase by an average of 4.6 – 4.9% per annum between 1999 and 2020” Boeing (2001) Appendix 1 shows the predicted growth of the industry up to 2030 with over 500 million passengers passing through the United Kingdoms Airports.

This growth cannot at present be catered for with the existing infrastructure the United Kingdom has in place. While the industry in general has grown at an above average rate airport capacity has not been provided for and the UK’s airspace is heavily congested. In particular the heavily constrained South East, where the majority of flights enter and leave the London airports of Heathrow and Gatwick, “63% of all traffic passes through these four airports” Humphrey’s (2002). It has been predicted that by 2020 all airports in the UK will be full.  This would have a huge impact on the industry in the UK, which would result in airport operators raising charges in order to, retain profitability and the UK losing it importance as a Global Hub for connecting flights.

However it is argued that such estimates are not reasonable and that forecasts have been over estimated. Environmental groups believe these estimates to be beyond reasonable and do not show a realistic model in which growth will occur. In comparison environmental organisations found that passengers using UK airports will fall from the governments predicted 500 million to 315 million by 2030 if appropriate taxes on the industry were implemented. Appendix 2 shows the difference between constraining demand of air travel in the UK and not constraining demand for air travel.

If this is the case then airport operators have a struggle in determining the needs of the future in order to meet demand.

2.1 The Benefits of the Air Industry to the Economy

The industry contributes to the economy and can be seen as an important public utility giving access to countries worldwide not only for business travel but also for recreation and visiting relatives purposes.

2.1.1 Direct Benefits

The industry contributes significantly to the GDP of the Country directly and indirectly.

  • The UK aviation industry accounted for £10.2 billion of GDP, 1.4% of the total. If growth were to continue this figure is reported to increase to 2.1% of GDP by 2015 according to Oxford Economic Forecasting (1999)

  • The industry also contributes significantly to UK employment directly supporting 180,000 jobs. But indirectly it supports double this figure. With growth this figure should be expected to increase even more. Appendix 4 shows the jobs supported by the industry in 1998.
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2.1.2 Indirect benefits

  • Many businesses in the UK rely on air transport significantly for there day to day business as well as the use of freight transport.
  • An Airport is proven to attract inward investment from companies who need good transport links.
  • It is widely accepted now that the public enjoys the privilege of flying airports allow people to travel for leisure purposes to a variety of destinations.

2.2 Other Benefits

It is clear that aviation is advantageous to the nation and that growth would benefit the economy. Although environmental lobbyists argue this contribution, ...

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