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Crime is a social concern and one of the biggest political issues in these days. As Fadaei-Tehrani (1990) said, an economic approach to understanding criminal behavior and the design of effective policies would be a helpful tool for dealing with the probl

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Introduction

APPLIED ECONOMICS FINAL PROJECT A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS & CRIME RATE SUBMITTED TO: SIR AHSAN ABBAS SUBMITTED BY: JUNAID JAVAID 06108082 DATE OF SUBMISSION: 7-FEBUARY-20011 Acknowledgement All praises and thanks to Almighty Allah. The Lord and Creator of this universe by whose power and glory all good things are accomplished. He is also the most merciful, who best owed on me the potential, ability and an opportunity to work on this project. We are grateful to our respected teacher Sir Ahsan Abbas who has guided us in each and every step of this project. Indeed, without his kind guidance we may not be able to even start this project. May ALLAH give him the reward, which he deserves. We are also grateful to all those members who are related to this section. Abstract Crime is a social concern and one of the biggest political issues in these days. As Fadaei-Tehrani (1990) said, an economic approach to understanding criminal behavior and the design of effective policies would be a helpful tool for dealing with the problem of criminal activity (p.1). From qualitative analysis, we conclude that the unemployment rate and media reporting are important factors for people to feel the economy is becoming worse. Economic conditions are one of the contributing factors for rising crime rates. Also, we conclude that people believe that an economic downturn would lead to an upswing in crime. Based on simple liner regression analysis for unemployment rate and crime rate, there is a direct relationship between the two. The crime rate goes up as the unemployment rate goes up. Therefore, we can conclude that the crime rate increases as economic conditions worsen. One of my purposes for researching the relationship between specific societal economic conditions and crime rates is to help national government officials in deciding national police policies. I hope that the result of this research will be helpful in making new anti-crime policies that take economic conditions into consideration. Table of Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. ...read more.

Middle

However, rates of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible r**e and aggravated assault would also increase if economic conditions got worse. In my thinking, people might commit those violent crimes because of stress, depression or desperation caused by poverty. Therefore, we look at crime rate as a whole, not segmented. 3.2. For qualitative analysis section For qualitative analysis, we interviewed three people concerning crime and economic conditions. To know how citizens feel about crime and economic conditions, I chose two people who work in private companies and one person who works in a public organization. Two of them are not married, and one has a family. Their ages are in the range of 30-50 years old. I asked the following four questions. 1. Under what kind of economic conditions would you think that the economy had gotten worse? 2. Do you think it's true that crime rates would increase as economic conditions worsen? Why? 3. If you lose your job and have no way to earn money, do you think you would commit a crime to make a living? 4. Do you have any friends or acquaintances who committed a crime because he or she didn't have another way to earn money due to worsened economic conditions? 3.3. For quantitative analysis section According to Rosentfeld & Fornango (2007), disagreement exists over how best to measure the economic conditions that are most relevant to criminal activity. And the unemployment rate is by far the economic indicator of choice in research on the impact of economic conditions on crime rates (p.736). Arvanites & Defina argued persuasively for the use of a broader indicator than the unemployment rate to measure crime-relevant economic conditions (as cited in Rosentfeld & Fornango, 2007, p.738). And they use real Gross State Product (GSP) per capita, which is a state-level analog for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to represent the totality of economic conditions with a potential influence on crime (as cited in Rosentfeld & Fornango, 2007, p.738). ...read more.

Conclusion

In other words, there is a relationship between unemployment rate and crime rate. From Figure F, this model can also be shown by the following formula: Crime rate = 249.779+5.828(unemployment rates) This means that the crime rate goes up 5.828 when the unemployment rate goes up 1.0. From Figure G, we see that the histogram is not in normal distribution, which shows violation. In other words, this model could be improved by adding other dependent factors. 5.2. Results for quantitative analysis Based on simple liner regression analysis for unemployment rate and crime rate, there is a relationship between unemployment rate and crime rate at the national level, but it is not very strong. This model also shows that the crime rate goes up 5.828 when the unemployment rate goes up 1.0. However, since only 7.3% of the distribution can be explained by this model, and the residual analysis shows violation, We need to add other dependent factors such as population growth rate, personal income, personal savings, personal consumption expenditures and GDP to improve the model 6. Conclusions One of our purposes for researching the relationship between specific societal economic conditions and crime rates is to help national government officials in deciding national police policies. From qualitative analysis, we conclude that the unemployment rate and media reporting are important factors for people to feel the economy is becoming worse. The unemployment rate is one of the contributing factors for a rising crime rate. Also, we conclude that people believe that an economic downturn would lead to an upswing in crime. Based on simple liner regression analysis for unemployment rate and crime rate, there is a relationship between unemployment rate and crime rate. Crime rate goes up when unemployment rate goes up. Therefore, we can conclude that the crime rate increases as economic conditions worsen. Crime is a social concern and one of the biggest political issues in recent days. We hope that the result of this research will be helpful in making new anti-crime policies that take economic conditions into consideration. 7. ...read more.

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