The crime rate is related to not only economic, but also many elements such as culture background and ethics. Even so, there is still some research which shows that there is a relationship between crime rate and economics.
For example, Radzinowicz argued that specific economic conditions affect specific classes of people with regard to specific crimes (As cited in Hoffman, 1997, p.82). Rosentfeld & Fornango (2007) also concluded that the effects of collective economic perceptions should become an important focus of future research on crime trends (p.736).
Literature review
Criminology has a long history, and there are lots of arguments with regard to the relationship between crime rate and economics. There is some research which concluded that macroeconomic conditions have a positive effect on crime (Hoffman, 1997, and Bennett & Shelley as cited in Bennett, 1991, p.343). The official crime rate is almost always higher among the poor (Fadaei-Tehrani, 1990, p.117).
For example, Japan’s postwar economic improvement may play a critical role
in its generally declining crime rates (Roberts & LaFree, 2004, p.183, and Evan as cited in Tsushima, 1996).
Then, what kind of factors related to economic conditions might affect crime rates? There are arguments which focus on and support the relationship between unemployment rates and crime rates. Under the economic model, if unemployment is reduced, the level of crime should decline (Fadaei-Tehrani, 1990, p.125, and Devine, Sheley & Smith, 1988, p.417). On the other hand, Arvanites & Defina concluded that there are no significant effects of unemployment rates on state crime rates (as cited in Rosentfeld & Fornango, 2007, p.738). Part of the reason that there is no significant effect of unemployment rates on crime rates is that there are also opportunity and motivation effects on crime. For example, opportunity reduces crime even when unemployment rates are high by reducing target attractiveness and by increasing guardianship (Cohen & Felson as cited in Rosentfeld & Fornango, 2007, p.737). Also, motivation effects are reflected in increased crime when unemployment blocks access to legitimate income-producing opportunities (Cloward & Ohlin as cited in Rosentfeld & Fornango, 2007, p.737).
Therefore, the relationship between crime rate and economic conditions is still controversial when we take the crime rate as a whole instead of dividing crime into smaller categories. There is some interesting research which concluded that the relationship between unemployment rates and crime rates can be positive, negative or null, depending on the type of crime (Cantor & Land, 1985, p.330).
For example, there is a significant positive relationship between the unemployment rate and rates of homicide and robbery, and the level of economic inequality and rates of larceny (Tsushima, 1996). On the other hand, there is different research which points to the direct economic nature of robbery compared to more violent crimes including homicide (Roberts & LaFree, 2004, p.200, and Wolfgang & Weiner as cited in Cantor & Land, 1985, p.329)
There is yet other research which argues the relationship more specifically. According to Rosentfeld & Fornango (2007), consumer sentiment had significant effects on robbery and property crime rates that were largely independent of the effects of unemployment and economic growth (p.735). They restricted the analysis to robbery and property crimes on the assumption that economic conditions are more likely to affect crimes with a transparent economic motivation than so-called expressive crimes, including a large proportion of homicides and serious assaults (p.763). They also argued that many car thefts are committed for “joy riding” without direct economic motivation (p.763).
Research design
Research Topic
In this report, we will focus on the relationship between crime rates and economic conditions. When we experience an economic downturn, what effect will it have on us?
We asked this question in the interviews which we conducted, and we concluded that the unemployment rate is an important factor for people to feel that the economy is becoming worse, as I will discuss later.
Second, if we lose our jobs, see our salaries decrease, and see depreciation in purchasing power, we may struggle to make a living and look for other sources of money to survive. This situation might lead some people to commit robbery. The strain of grief from making a living during bad conditions might lead some people to become desperate or irritated. The more people who become desperate or irritated, the more crimes there would be. For example, a conflict over debt might escalate to assault or murder.
Third, with a decreased salary, some people might start to feel inequality in that they are not receiving adequate compensation for the work that they are doing. Given this situation, their ethical level might fall to the point that they commit white color crimes.
Thus, logically thinking, crime rates would increase as economic conditions worsen.
Our hypothesis is that crime rates increase as economic conditions worsen. The crime rate which we use for our project consists of crimes of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, aggravated assault, property crime, robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft.
To break it down, prominently money related crimes would include property crime, robbery, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape and aggravated assault are not crimes motivated by money directly, and those seem to have nothing to do with economic conditions. However, rates of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape and aggravated assault would also increase if economic conditions got worse. In my thinking, people might commit those violent crimes because of stress, depression or desperation caused by poverty.
Therefore, we look at crime rate as a whole, not segmented.
For qualitative analysis section
For qualitative analysis, we interviewed three people concerning crime and economic conditions. To know how citizens feel about crime and economic conditions, I chose two people who work in private companies and one person who works in a public organization. Two of them are not married, and one has a family. Their ages are in the range of 30-50 years old.
I asked the following four questions.
1. Under what kind of economic conditions would you think that the economy had gotten worse?
2. Do you think it’s true that crime rates would increase as economic conditions worsen? Why?
3. If you lose your job and have no way to earn money, do you think you would commit a crime to make a living?
4. Do you have any friends or acquaintances who committed a crime because he or she didn’t have another way to earn money due to worsened economic conditions?
For quantitative analysis section
According to Rosentfeld & Fornango (2007), disagreement exists over how best to measure the economic conditions that are most relevant to criminal activity. And the unemployment rate is by far the economic indicator of choice in research on the impact of economic conditions on crime rates (p.736). Arvanites & Defina argued persuasively for the use of a broader indicator than the unemployment rate to measure crime-relevant economic conditions (as cited in Rosentfeld & Fornango, 2007, p.738). And they use real Gross State Product (GSP) per capita, which is a state-level analog for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to represent the totality of economic conditions with a potential influence on crime (as cited in Rosentfeld & Fornango, 2007, p.738). On the other hand, Rosentfeld & Fornango (2007) argued that no indicator measures the impact of unemployment, income, or other conditions on collective perceptions of economic hardship (p.739).
Taking their arguments into consideration, to examine how economic conditions affect crime rates, we still use the unemployment rate as an economic indicator in my research. The unemployment rate indicates the rate of people who currently do not have a way of making a living or earning money. And based on the interviews, even if people would never commit a crime in a normal situation, if they could not feed or house themselves or their families, they may resort to stealing or other crimes to survive if they were desperate. This suggests that the unemployment rate is one of the contributing factors for a higher crime rate. Based on the interviews, the unemployment rate is an important factor for people to feel that the economy is becoming worse. Therefore, the unemployment rate indicates the economic conditions in light of crime rates. With this indicator, we examine the crime rate which includes murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, aggravated assault, property crime, robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft rates of Pakistan between the period 1999-2008.
There is a lot of research concerning the relationship between unemployment and crime rates. However, as Kleck and Chiricos (2002) pointed out, employment in low pay, part-time, and contingent jobs could have substantial motivational consequence for crime apart from any effects of unemployment. And undoubtedly, such“underemployment” is a major contributor to poverty. The reason that I use unemployment rate instead of discouraged workers rate is that regardless of the motivation for looking for a job, people under unemployment do not have a stable income. And that means that there is still a comparatively high possibility for them to commit a crime for money.
I have taken the Pakistan’s 10 years unemployment rate and crime rate to examine the relationship between crime rate and economic conditions.
As Long & Witte argued, the relationship between specific societal economic conditions and crime rates remains ambiguous, though the search for links between specific societal economic conditions and crime rates has an extensive history in the sociological literature (as cited in Devine, Sheley & Smith, 1988, p.407).
Qualitative Analysis
Summarizing findings from interviews
Regarding economic conditions, a person would think that the economy was becoming worse if the person or friends of the person were laid off due to downsizing. Also, people would think that the economy had become worse when people started to spend less. Media reporting about the economy, such as in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, also contributes to a person’s perception ofeconomic conditions.
People think that an economic downturn would lead to an upswing in crime. If conditions became so desperate that they could not feed or house themselves or their families, they might become desperate and resort to stealing or other crime to survive.
After his or her savings were all gone, one person might think about stealing, but he still doubts it. Even if it is hard for a person to imagine himself/herself committing a crime, that person cannot say that he or she absolutely would not commit a crime to survive. If a person had to commit crimes to survive, he or she would do it.
No one that we interviewed had any personal friends or acquaintances who have committed crimes for money. However, one person said that he has heard of many such cases in the news.
Results for qualitative analysis
Our content analysis of the interviews entails inductive analysis. According to the interviews which we conducted, people would think the economy was becoming worse if they or their friends were laid off due to downsizing. Media reporting about the economy also contributes to a person’s perception of economic conditions. In other words, people would feel that the economy was becoming worse as a reaction to a rising unemployment rate or media reporting.
Also, based on the interviews, even if people would never commit a crime in a normal situation, if they could not feed or house themselves or their families, they might become desperate and resort to stealing or other crime to survive. This suggests that the unemployment rate is one of the contributing factors of higher crime rates.
Even though no one that we interviewed had any personal friends or acquaintances who have committed crimes for money, they believe that an economic downturn would lead to an upswing in crime. This is because people have heard of many such cases in the news. And they cannot say that they absolutely would not commit a crime to survive.
Therefore, we can conclude that unemployment rate or media reporting are important factors for people to feel the economy is becoming worse. And the unemployment rate is one of contributing factors of higher crime rates. Also, we conclude that people believe that an economic downturn would lead to an upswing in crime.
Quantitative Analysis
Data for quantitative analysis
We have collected the figure of Total Population and Unemployment from CIA Factbook Report (1999-2008) and Yearly Crime Reported figures from Pakistan Federal Bureau of Statistics Website.
While for Determinig Crime Rate per 100,000 Residents we have used the following formula mentioned below:
Crime Rate per 100,000 Residents= ____Total Crime Reported at that year______ x 100,000
Total Country Population at that year
Figure A
We have conducted simple liner regression analysis for unemployment rate and crime rate using the data from Figure A. Figure B is a scatter plot of unemployment rate and crime rate.
From Figure C, we see that the mean crime rate is 291.62, and the standard deviation for crime rate is 28.24. The minimum crime rate is 261.59. The maximum crime rate is 342.88. The mean unemployment rate is 7.18, and the standard deviation for unemployment rate is 1.31. The minimum unemployment rate is 5.60. The maximum unemployment rate is 10.0.
From Figure C, we also see that the correlation between unemployment rate and crime rate is 0.270. This suggests that there is a relationship between unemployment rate and crime rate, although it is not very strong.
From Figure D, we see that R Square is 0.073. This means that 7.3% of the distribution can be explained by this model.
T-test for the model
H0: B1 = 0 (insignificant model)
H1: B1 ≠ 0 (significant model)
α = 0.01, df = n-1=10-1=9
Tcr =3.25
The graph appears below.
With 99 % confidence, we reject H0 that B1 = 0 (insignificant model).
In other words, there is a relationship between unemployment rate and crime rate.
From Figure F, this model can also be shown by the following formula:
Crime rate = 249.779+5.828(unemployment rates)
This means that the crime rate goes up 5.828 when the unemployment rate goes up 1.0.
From Figure G, we see that the histogram is not in normal distribution, which shows violation. In other words, this model could be improved by adding other dependent factors.
Results for quantitative analysis
Based on simple liner regression analysis for unemployment rate and crime rate, there is a relationship between unemployment rate and crime rate at the national level, but it is not very strong. This model also shows that the crime rate goes up 5.828 when the unemployment rate goes up 1.0.
However, since only 7.3% of the distribution can be explained by this model, and the residual analysis shows violation, We need to add other dependent factors such as population growth rate, personal income, personal savings, personal consumption expenditures and GDP to improve the model
Conclusions
One of our purposes for researching the relationship between specific societal economic conditions and crime rates is to help national government officials in deciding national police policies.
From qualitative analysis, we conclude that the unemployment rate and media reporting are important factors for people to feel the economy is becoming worse. The unemployment rate is one of the contributing factors for a rising crime rate. Also, we conclude that people believe that an economic downturn would lead to an upswing in crime.
Based on simple liner regression analysis for unemployment rate and crime rate, there is a relationship between unemployment rate and crime rate. Crime rate goes up when unemployment rate goes up. Therefore, we can conclude that the crime rate increases as economic conditions worsen.
Crime is a social concern and one of the biggest political issues in recent days. We hope that the result of this research will be helpful in making new anti-crime policies that take economic conditions into consideration.
References
Roberts, A & LaFree, G. (2004). EXPLAINING JAPAN'S POSTWAR VIOLENT CRIME
RENDS*. Criminology, 42(1), 179-209. Retrieved October 3, 2008, from
Criminal Justice Periodicals database.
Bennett, R. (1991, September). DEVELOPMENT AND CRIME: A Cross-National,
Time-Series Analysis of Competing Models. Sociological Quarterly, 32(3),
343-363. Retrieved September 23, 2008, from Academic Search Premier
database.
Cantor, D., & Land, K. (1985, June). UNEMPLOYMENT AND CRIME RATES IN THE
POST-WORLD WAR II UNITED STATES: A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL
ANALYSIS. American Sociological Review, 50(3), 317-332. Retrieved
September 23, 2008, from Academic Search Premier database.
A Relationship between Economic Conditions & Crime Rate Page
