MGSM840 Accounting for Management                                                              Financial Statement Analysis: Colorado Group Ltd. and Noni-B Ltd


TABLE OF CONTENTS

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VII.

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VIII.

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XIV.

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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Australian apparel and fashion retail industry has enjoyed consecutive years of profitable growth.  Bolstered by improved international trade conditions, low interest rates, a strengthened Australian dollar, and record consumer spending, the trend in forecast to continue in the near to medium term.  

Colorado Group Ltd (Colorado) and Noni-B Ltd (Noni-B) have performed admirably in the period 2001–2004.  While imports have increased price competition and the industry has become increasingly concentrated, both Colorado and Noni-B continue to produce strong results, posting solid returns and significant dividends to their shareholders. Some investment analysts have remarked that the retail market is “extremely overpriced” as low interest rates, government initiatives, consumer confidence and the stronger Australian dollar are viewed as being largely responsible for the industry’s strong performance. 

This said, anticipating stable interest rates and moderate to strong consumer confidence, both companies represent attractive investment opportunities. Noni-B, with a pattern of more generous dividend payouts and financial performance driven by organic growth, astute brand and niche market development, is the preferred short-term investment option to Colorado.

Colorado is recommended for medium to long term investment. Coupled with a balanced approach to financing, proven experience in acquisitions, and broad channels to market through, Colorado is well-placed to stave off an economic downturn while remaining profitable as a result of competitive advantages it has achieved in operational efficiency and internal brand development strategies.

While increased domestic and imports competition will continue to put pressure on maintaining higher margins, the continued strength of Colorado’s balance sheets and cash flows and its willingness to seek debt financing while maintaining a cash “safety net” would appear to outweigh the risks associated with the company.

The accompanying analysis includes an overview of the Australian Retail Fashion industry and the two organisations under investment consideration.  Detailed analysis of key industry ratios, their limitations and investment recommendations follow.


II. AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

According to a report issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August 2004 the Australian economy is expanding at a good pace. The general strength of the economy can be attributed to strong consumer confidence which is at its highest level in a decade and strong consumer spending which has been bolstered by tax cuts, benefit payments and low interest rates.  The economy is benefiting from a stronger global economy. 

According to data release by IFR, retail trade in Australia rose just 0.2 percent in August 2004, which was below the market consensus for a 1.0 percent gain despite the strong growth in the private sector credit.  Further, the rising oil price is likely to show slower profile in the coming months in retail trade and may be expected to have a greater impact on the discretionary spending of consumers. 

The Australian dollar was trading around US$0.75 in early November after peaking at US$0.77 earlier in the year.

Global Economy

The global economy is focused on the continuous surge in oil prices.  Oil has hovered above US$50 since July. Economic activity is slowing in some segments of the world, particularly in Asia and Europe, although the US economy remains something of an outlier for now.  In Asia, inflation is increasing whilst the slowing down of demand in the US and elsewhere may potentially pull oil prices down towards the US$35-US$40. 


III. AUSTRALIAN RETAIL FASHION INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

The apparel market in Australia is estimated at US$1.87 billion with expected annual growth of 1.5 percent for the period 2005 – 2006.  The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment recorded a rise of 1.7 percent in September 2004, its highest level since June 1994.  This contributed to a retail consumer spending increase of 2.1 percent and a corresponding 7.7 percent rise in department-store sales.  From an investment standpoint the retail market is “extremely overpriced” as low interest rates, government initiatives, consumer confidence and the stronger Australian dollar are viewed as being largely responsible for the industry’s strong performance.  With many analysts predicting near-term moderations in consumer spending, retailers must look to balance shareholder expectations of solid returns growth planning and aggressive internal optimization initiatives if they are to avoid stagnation in a hyper-competitive, increasingly consolidating and mature industry.

Industry Composition

Women’s apparel sales amount to 52.3% of total sales. With improving trade conditions and lower overseas production costs clothing and foot wear manufacturing activities are moving offshore.  A more direct sourcing model promises to shorten supply chains, reduce costs and improve margins and customer responsiveness. In recent years companies sourcing from overseas have benefited from a strong exchange rate.

The Micro Environment

Highly susceptible to economic, climatic and social changes, retailers must excel at managing a range of strategic imperatives, including: delivering on customer needs; executing well planned promotions; retaining and growing market position; efficient supply chain management; creating a 'unique retail experience' for customers; well-conceived and executed acquisitions and managing  rapid growth. 

Added to this a fickle world of fashion where inventory can age overnight and consumer shopping habits are seasonal.


IV. COMPANY OVERVIEW: COLORADO

Brisbane-based Colorado is a collection of five retail businesses that provides footwear or clothing apparel in 400 stores across Australia and New Zealand. These include Colorado (casual fashion apparel and footwear for men and women); Mathers Shoes (Florsheim, Hush Puppies, Windsor Smith and Sandler); William the Shoemen (Lynx, Lipstick and Candy brands); diana ferrari (shoes and fashion accessories, acquired in 2002); and JAG (fashion, taken over in 2001).

Colorado is one of Australia’s oldest footwear businesses, with heritage dating back almost 140 years. The group has experienced sales growth of 36% over the last four years and watched its net cash flows more than double in that time. Colorado traditionally earns most of its profit in the final six months of its financial year.  Management plans to grow earnings through more store openings, acquisitions, increased spending on marketing, and devoting gains to long-term improvements in the company. In August 2004, it completed a $10 million investment in improved information technology, retail and distribution systems. To its credit, the company has sought higher margins by sourcing more than 80% of its stock from overseas manufacturers. On the downside, Colorado continues to face challenges with underperforming brands JAG and Mathers Shoes.

Managing director Roman Webb has stated that the organisation would like to expand beyond its five existing retail brands, but is in no rush to buy while the industry is booming and asset prices are up for most retailers.


V. COMPANY OVERVIEW: NONI-B LTD

Founded in 1997, Noni-B was floated on the ASX in 2000 and is minority-owned and managed by the Kindl Family.  Company success is attributed to the family’s knowledge of the retail fashion market, exclusive marketing of the Noni-B brand, competitiveness of product offerings, and superior customer service.  The management and running of the business is based on family values.  Decisions regarding market positioning, store locations, fashion range, and target markets are agreed internally prior to presentations being made to the board of directors.  

In recent years, the company has launched aggressive marketing campaigns to strengthen its brand and closed of underperforming stores.

Currently debt free and ‘cashed-up” Noni-B is looking for acquisitions and plans to grow organically via its two primary brands Noni-B and Liz Jordan.  Noni-B has a total of 174 stores (inclusive of Liz Jordan outlets), and planned to open 12 new stores in 2004.  From its modest early days of three retail outlets, Noni-B management believe the market is able to support 220 retail outlets (180 Noni-B and 40 Liz Jordan).  Noni-B attributes their success to increased productivity amongst staff and effective stock management of inventory. The strength of the Australian dollar has also providing better that expected margins.

Benefiting from the trend away from mass-retailers, Noni-B’s personal service and exclusive brands attract high income, middle aged professional women who spend more on fashion, on average, than any other buyer group.

 VI. SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

Share Price Review – 5 Year

The graphs below outline share performance of the two companies over the last three years. Colorado’s share price has generally performed above or to expectations, climbing from $1.87 in September 2001 to around $6 in early November 2004, after trading at a record $6.30 a share in late October.

During the period of review, Noni-B’s share price generally outperformed Colorado, and has equally benefited from healthy consumer sentiment and consistent profit gains during the period of review. The market has responded to these variables by pushing its share price up from $0.70 in September 2001 to a high of $2.75 per share in early November 2004.

Colorado and Noni-B have yielded higher consistent total shareholder return compared against the total market return. Colorado  P/E ratios have ranged between 9.4 and 19.2 over the last three periods, whereas PER for Noni-B has ranged between 10.1. and 19.8 during this period.


VII. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Primary analysis was constructed using the Dupont System, which provides an integrative framework that helps to impose structure on ratio anlaysis and provide insight into how ratios relate to each other. The model integrates the areas of profitability and asset management, featuring a company’s Return on Assets (ROA) as the quintessential measure of firm and managerial performance.

One advantage of the Dupont framework is that it highlights the important interplay between effective asset management and firm profitability, namely, that a company’s ROA can be positively affected by increasing the net profit margin on each individual sale transaction, increasing the volume of sales transactions (ie. increasing turnover), or some combination of increasing profit margins and increasing turnover.

i. DUPONT ANALYSIS

Asset Turnover

Commonly regarded as a measure of the efficiency with which assets are employed in generating sales, Asset Turnover analysis indicates that Colorado is more effective at generating revenue from its assets than Noni-B.  For Colorado, recent declines are attributable to an increasingly competitive landscape and downward pressure on margins, store expansions, and acquisitions of the Palmer Corporation and diana ferrari.

Noni-B shows steady improvement in the employment of assets to generate sales.  Lower asset turnover than Colorado is due to the fact that Noni-B is less diverse. Competition has also contributed to recent declines in asset turnover.  

Profit Margin

Of the two companies, Colorado is more effective at generating profits from its revenues, with business performance increasing by 38% since 2001.  This suggests that the organisation’s strategy of internal operating efficiencies and off shore product sourcing is paying off. Since 2001, Colorado has experienced an 88% increased in EBIT and a 36% increase in revenue, suggesting that the company has yielded more control over its cost of goods sold and benefited from product diversification and creation of economies of scale, including an increased reliance on wholesale retail outlets. While Noni-B has had an 80% increase in EBIT since 2001, revenue has increased 42%. Improvements are attributed to increased productivity, effective stock management, an increasing rate of sale, the opening of new stores, and the closing of underperforming locations.

Rate of Return on Assets

After experiencing a slight decline in ROA in 2002 Colorado regained strength to produce 24.7% ROA in 2004, 2.5 times the retail industry benchmark of 9.1%. Although ROA is a broad measure of returns and profitability, Colorado management has effectively generated higher than normal returns against all assets employed by the company suggesting increased internal efficiency.

Noni have shown an increase in the rate of ROA between 2001 and 2004, outperforming industry benchmarks by a factor of 1.6.  

Leverage

Noni-B has become less reliant on debt financing, which highlights its conservative approach to business.  Noni-B management is more reluctant than Colorado to take on long-term debt to finance growth. It is interesting to note that except for an increase in 2002 of $5.6m, loans have been fairly insignificant. Noni-B debt financed the liability because it had moved from non-current in 2001 to current in 2002. Colorado’s reliance on debt financing versus equity financing steadily increased over three years to 2003, before dropping off to 1.53 times in 2004. Increases in 2002 and 2003 stemmed from company acquisitions. During growth periods the entity issued additional shares possibly to support its growth, maintain its available cash reserves and provide higher levels of dividend return to shareholders.

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Return on Equity

Colorado has provided a reasonably consistent level of return on equity over the four-year period of between 36.54% and a high of 41.49% in 2003. Although this may appear as good news to investors considering long-term investment prospects, it may suggest that Colorado is over leveraged and should consider opportunities of establishing greater balance between ROA and reliance on financing for its capital structure.

Noni-B’s registered a 22.7% gain in ROE in 2004 over 2003, a reflection of increased profit margins, increased asset productivity, reduced reliance on debt financing and 13% increased in net sales.

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