MACROECONOMIC SITUATION IN POLAND NOW AND IN THE FUTURE 2.1 Demographic situation in Poland[1]Present situation

There is observed a constant improvement in life length of Polish nation since 90’s. Without robust changes in deaths conditions of populations the anticipation of life length for boys born  in 2003 is 70,5 and for girls is 78,9 years. In comparison to 1990 an average life length of men is 4 years longer and 3,4 year longer in case of women. It is still far behind the averages of  other European nations which is 4-5 years longer for women and 6-7 years longer for men. Also the difference between average men and women life length is in Poland above 8 years in comparison to 5-6 year in other European countries.

As a result of described above demographic changes there is a rapid change of number of children and teenagers (below 17 years old) and their share in total population has decreased to 22% nowadays (30% in 1990). In opposite the number of people older than 65 years has increased to about 13% (10% in 1990). This means that there are 60 people in non-production age for every 100 people in production age.

The population in Poland in compare to other European nation is still relatively young in demographic meaning. But the general trend is toward population getting older and older.

Prognosis

There have been made some researches abort demographic trends and they show that decrease in fertility factor is not finished process by now. There are many reasons for this situation including lack of policies supporting families, hard social and economic conditions to live for young generations and difficulties in finding job. That is why we can expect further decrease of fertility factor what can be seen together with estimated life-length in table below.

Table 6: Fertility factor and life length till 2030 r.

Source: GUS

We should also expect decrease in death rates and continuously increase of average life length as far as 77,6 years for men and 80 years for women in 2030. Birth rate will be constant in general with possible small fluctuations till 2020 (340 thousands annually) and after that there will be even 30 % of reduction of birth rate (till 232 thousands annually) because of demographic depression in number of young women.

In the whole prognosis period rates of natural growth will be negative and after 2020 this situation will go even deepen. Till  2020 the population in Poland will decrease abort one million people and till 2030 over 2,5 millions.

Figure 9: Population projection of Poland until 2030.

Source: GUS

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Household projection by number of members

While analyzing demographic situation in order to find some conclusions to car market potential there are some other important factors that should be taken under consideration. Number of members of households and total number of households. These two factors are connected because number of households depends direct from average number of people in household. As we can see from below charts the total number of households will increase in nearest 15 years by 11%.

Figure 10: Projection of households in Poland until 2030.

Source: GUS

Figure 11: Projection of largeness of households in Poland until 2030.

Source: GUS

While in 2005 one and two members households combined for 50% share in total numbers of households in 2020 these two will reached over 60%.

2.2 Economic situation in Poland 

Introduction

The beginning of 2006 confirmed ongoing economical boom. Dynamic of Gross Domestic Product has increased, there is low inflation rate and there are much better conditions on jobs market. National currency has also became stronger. We could notice good outcomes of industry production and international trade. Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of year is expected to be about 5.2% and this trend is supposed to continue till the end of year.

Gross Domestic Product

The growth of GDP will be stimulated mainly by investments similar to the last quarter of 2005 and increases in house holdings consumption (3,7% in contrast to 3,1% in fourth quarter of 2005). The second factor is possible because of higher revenue per house holding and increases in undertaking new credits especially for consumption aims.

There should be noticed also a very good results of industry production which has grown over 10% yoy during first two month of 2006.

Overall data shows clearly that the economy is in highly increasing trend.

Figure 12: GDP in Poland in years 1995-2006 (estimated).

Source: GUS

Employment

The Job market situation is much better the year before. The average employment rate in period of January-February has risen 2.5%yoy and average remuneration 4.3% yoy.

Figure 13: Unemployment rate in Poland in years 1995-2006 (estimated).

Source: GUS

Official unemployment rate has estimated decrease trend of 7% annually and is expected to reach 16% at the end of 2006.

Figure 14: Philips curve.

Source: Strategy of Economy ??

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