2.1. Sustainability for future generations : The risk of finite resources
Non-renewable resources are finite and in the future the citizens of our world will be faced with the scarcity of non-renewables. Due to the fact that our transport system highly depends on oil and will be for future generations the risk of finite resources is obvious. Through the rising scarcity of these raw materials and rising demand as a result of the immense economic growth in China, India and many other countries prices will rise consecutively. Economic growth is hooked on the conveyance and transportation of oil, seen through the massive decrease in the oil price in recessions, and the scarcity and rising prices will determine future growth possibilities. According to the “Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR)” in Germany, an national department in favor of geoscience and raw materials, the peak-oil will be reached not later than 2035 (Pieprzyk und Kortlütke, 2011). Peak-oil and peak-coal describe the point in time at which the maximum global production rate of these raw materials is reached and the rate of production will enter to decline. Other scientific studies estimate that oil will peak sometime between now and 2040 and evidently the world discovery of oil fields is declining since 40 years (GAO, 2007). The peak-oil production depends on uncertain factors, especially how quickly the remaining oil is used, including the amount of oil not yet explored and future oil demand. Whereby more than 60 percent of world oil reserves are in countries with unstable political conditions (GAO, 2007). But this will be closer scrutinized in the third positive aftereffect of reducing the oil ( partly coal and gas ) demand, the reduction of regional concentration. Looking at the future demand of oil it is estimated that an annual growth rate of 3 percent is followed by an increase in 1,3 percent per year (Aleklett et al, 2009). Raising growth rates due to the massive dependence of oil in our transport system always result in an higher demand of oil as mentioned before, and these figures give evidence to it. Therefore it is just a matter of time until every oil reserve will be exploited. The seeking of non-conventional oil, which is defined by the IEA (International Energy Agency) as oil sands, extra-heavy oil, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, and chemical additives with an annual growth rate of 8 percent, shows that conventional oil fields are already declining in furtherance. For closer information about non-conventional oil fields Aleklett et al. (2009) and GAO (2007) can be suggested. The risk taken by companies to flow oil and explore new oil fields are increasingly threaten the environment and sustainability approaches.
Concerning peak-coal estimations figures are even more apart. Only a small number of nations control world's coal reserve and as different to oil, coal is explored and used in the same country, where the fossil resource is “distributed” in, itself and not exported by globalized companies, such as BP or Shell. For example Russia with the estimated second highest amount of coal reserves and many unexplored is only exporting 20 percent of its production (Höök et al., 2008). The Big Six, how they are ofen described, namely the USA, Russia, China, India, Australia and South Africa together control an estimated amount of over 85 percent of the world's hard coal reserves, whereby the USA has alone almost 30 percent of the world's total coal reserves and some nations already peaked in coal production in the 1920s, i.e. United Kingdom (Höök et al., 2008). Seeing this regional concentration the estimated peak-coal highly depends on the economic growth in these nations. China already placed second in the world's GDP output and with growth rates above 8 percent with an increase in coal production in the last 25 years of 255 percent, are threatening world's coal reserves (Höök et al., 2008). Moreover China has recently become world's export leader and it is likely that India is catching up with world's leading nations in the coming decades. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel in India and currently accounts for 55 percent of its energy needs (Chowdhary, 2002). Concerning the estimation of suffication the Reserve-to-Production-ratio (R/P-ratio) is often used to measure the remains of a certain resource, but only if you look at the development over time the reserves can somehow estimated. In year 2000 the US had 255 years of coal remaining whereby in 1988 300 years of coal reserves were estimated. In the global picture the trend is very evident. In 2000 the R/P-ratio of the world was 227 years only 7 years later in 2006 this number decreased to 147 years, a decrease excessing 35 percent (Höök et al, 2008). Therefore these figures have always to be seen in retrospect to the global economic growth. One sign and an evidenced trend to massive global declining coal reserves are the increasingly challenging reserve exploration (Dasgupta and Heal, 1979) and the declining trend in calorific value of US coals (Höök and Aleklett, 2009). Moreover many coal regions in the United States with the largest formations are already discovered, assessed and developed (Milici, 2009). Similar arguments can be applied to the entire world. Looking at the world reserves and future estimations only Russia is facing an increase in coal production in the coming decades, the plateau will be reached by 2020 (especially in China unless their reserves are bigger than reported) and the global production will go into decline after 2050 (Höök et al., 2008). Certainly these are only estimations, but the fact that explorations are increasingly challenging shows that there will be a downfall in production sooner or later. The coming figure underlines the importance to reduce coal consumption.
Figure 3: Source: In close restrospect to : The world coal consumption divided into subgroups. Source: European Commission, Fostering the use of clean coal technologies – The CARNOT programme, 2001 (Höök et al., 2008, p.11).
More than 50 percent of world's coal usage is on electricity and heat generation. This highlightens the importance of green energy supply to achieve sustainability for future generations.
2.2 Reducing dependence and decrease regional concentrations
Due to the fact that many countries have to import fossil energy sources they depend on other countries in favor of their energy supply. In 1995 Germany imported about 68 percent of its used resources and in 2011 already nearly 80 percent are imported from foreign countries(BGR, 2009). In 2009 97 percent of it's used crude oil, 84 percent gas and 72 percent coal came from foreign countries (Piepryzk and Kortlüke, 2011). Therefore Germanys economy and economic growth depends on imports of fossil fuels. Alltogether the EU with its 27 states is the most dependend international community in the world. The overall import quote is concerning crude oil by about 84 percent and natural gas at 62 percent (Eurostat, 2010). Trading of natural resources is well-founded because the further exploiting of national resources will increase in the future. Therefore increasing the supply of renewables in the energy and transportation sector will diminish a nations dependence and contribute to energy independence. The EUs dependence can be transformed to several other nations and international communities with similar occurrence of low fossil fuel resources. Worldwide fossil fuels are concentrated in several areas.
These regional concentrations contain risks. As mentioned before coal sources are more or less equality distributed around the world. Not in the amount which every nation has, but they are coal sources on every continent. Crude oil is more regionally concentrated and the highest amount of oil and natural gas are in political instable areas, such as the middle-east, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. This region is also named the “strategic ellipse”. More than 70 percent of worldwide natural gas and crude oil reserves are bundled in this area (Rempel, 2006). The Economist Intelligence unit founded by the weekly magazine “The Economist” publishes the “Political Instability Index”, where in more than have of world's crude oil exports are coming from areas where in political instability is estimated to be between high and very high (BGR, 2010). Looking at the diminshing natural resources around the world and include the regional concentration of fossil fuels destructive incidents can happen to save and protect these natural, non-renewable resources, i.e. protectionism of resources maybe resulting in wars. Therefore supporting green energy and finding new ways for transportation and energy supply will minor or only postpone this possibility.
Research publications give evidence to this idea. According to a empirical research by Collier and Hoeffler (2000) the probability of a war-start in a country with no natural resource exports is about 0,5 percent, whereby if oil is the major export good the possibilitiy of a civil war is about 40 percent. It cannot be only characterized by a homogenously dispersed population, other aspects have to be scrutinized. The cause that a civil war is for companies an advantage to exploit natural resources (f.e. explained by Maslow's hierarchy of needs etc.) might contribute to this fact. Natural resources in unstable governmental conditions are often more a curse than a blessing.
2.3. Reducing the risk of transportation and exploration
Hereunto first an excerpt of BP's statistical review of world energy 2011
Figure 4: Source: In close retrospect to : BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011, p.19)
Looking closer at the export and import of crude oil it is first evident that the US and Europe are massively importing. Concerning Europe this figure is not astonishing with having only marginal crude oil sources, but concerning the US the export and import numbers are supposedly for many people a big surprise. Europe is exporting more crude oil than the US and the United States are just behind Europe in favor of imports, therefore the second highest importer of crude oil. As a country itself it is high above any other country. Although being the third highest crude oil producer, behind the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia (BP, 2011) the US are also among the greatest importers. This is clearly a significant sign that the US is already holding back its crude oil sources for future demand. I will come back to this point in my summary and conclusion. The risk of transportation is centered in this paragraph. Seeing that there are huge trade amounts between countries implies occuring risks. In 1991 almost half of the extracted crude oil was used in the exploited country, only 16 years later the percentage rate decreased to 36 percent (Piepryzk and Kortlüke, 2011). Thus the installation of pipelines and the usage of oil tankers is increasing. Seeing the world in future generations, especially piplines crossing several nations and continents could be used as pressuring agents ending up in severe conflicts between nations. This is already evident through the conflict between the Ukraine and the Russian Federation where transit charges are on of the reasons (Stevens, 2009). The likelihood for oil spills due to pipeline corrosion is also rising intensively. Moreover crude oil shipments imply risks too due to increasing piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Somali coast. Increasing attempts show the severity in this case. In 2010, 219 pirate attacks were counted and until June 15th 2011 already 154 attacks were recorded (http://www.abendblatt.de/vermischtes/article1924752/Piratenangriffe-vor-Somalias-Kueste-nehmen-weiter-zu.html). Military operations by several nations try to diminsh this danger, but these operations can only be temporarily solutions stated by Kästner (2006). Looking on the other side of the coin transportation risks do not only imply economical risks, also environmental issues are increasing intensively. Last years blow-out of BP's Deep Water Horizon, which was an ultra-deepwater offshore oil drilling rig, was supposedly the most obvious severe environmental impact, caused by the exploration of new oil fields. Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989, an oil tanker running aground in Alaska is one example that oil shipments are also involved in massive oil spills.
A list of oil spills can be seen on , accessed July 16th 2011. Moreover the mining of non-conventional oil fields have an massive impact on environment, and extraction and further development of these fields result in high costs. Costs always imply the usage of sources, in this case for example water or energy, whereby the exploitation still lacks in efficiency (Business Insight, 2010). Besides the use of resources to explore these new discovered oil fields severe environmental impacts have to be considered. Deforestation, ground-water pollution, air and soil pollution are only some aftereffects. Due to the fact that these unconventioal oil fields are estimated to be double the size of conventional crude oil fields an exploration is inevitably (Piepryzk and Kortlüke, 2011). Therefore decreasing the present oil demand by endorsing renewable energy supply could result in postponing recent attempts of exploitation until higher amounts of efficiency are reached and new technolgy innovations are deployed to save the resource water, decrease environmental impacts and minor the use of power.
2.4. Decrease global warming
An reduction in C02 emissions decreases the greenhouse effect and therefore several environmental impacts can be minimized. Because this paper tries to find out other aftereffects in favor of supporting green energy supply and simultaneously decrease the the demand for fossil fuels, only some ideas are given what impacts C02 emissions have on our environment. Greenhouse effect implies global warming. Communicable diseases are florishing in warm conditions. Especially in poorer regions in our world viral vaccines are not available and if they are, they are mostly too expensive and only accessible to a small part of the population. Moreover the reduction in C02 emissions would decrease the risk for diseases caused by pollution, such as allergic asthma. Moreover global warming results in declining accessibility to water, especially where nowadays the availability is already low. First this implies a “water famine“, wherein people either don't have access to any kind of water or die from diseases caused through the ingestion of dirty water. And second poor water supply increases the likelihood for poor harvests and crop losses and thus end up in a hunger crisis, which can effect not only these regions, but the rest of the world. At the same time natural disasters, such as typhoons, tornados are increasing intensively. These two disasters can be explained by the the temperature rise in the oceans. A temperature rise also lead to a rise in the Mean Sea Level. The result are floods as seen in Bangladesh or Pakistan in the past. Especially coast regions where many people settled down due to the access to water are endangered by the rising sea level. Climate refugees will massively increase in the future. As mentioned these are some aftereffects of global warming and they are several more effects that can be referred to. The serverity of these future condtitions are obvious, and alltogether reducing C02 emissions, and consequently the greenhouse effect, will minimize these impacts on society and environment.
2.5. Stimulate new innovations
An excursus to the “Easy Case“ towards a sustainability strategy by Borland et al. (2011):
Towards a sustainability strategy Borland et al. (2011) mentioned an interesting, but easy case example from a manufacture in China. Company X is manufacture of waxes sold to other manufacturers to make consumer wax products. It became concernced because the effluent water was killing flora and fauna in the nearby lake which was also a major tourist attraction on popular destination for the locals. Then the company decided to changed the technology and processing of the was product. Through this new technology the company could eliminate acids and chlorine from processing. Thus, the waste water was no longer contaminated which reduced the costs of disposal of the contaminents. Moreover the water is now continously re-circulated in the manufacturing process, saving the company money on its water bill. By forcing further improvements company X have earned the title of one of China's most innovatice chemical companies with a technology patent. Through their investemts they gained sustainable competitive advantage in the marketplace with increased sales worldwide (Borland et al., 2011). This case study shows that through technology developments companies can be more environmental friendly on the one side and create a competitive advantage on the other side, and thus a win-win situation has been created.
This case can also be applied to the green energy industry. Creating more efficient technologies saving energy and reduce waste effects the environment positively and is an very important approach towards sustainability .This can lead to competitive advantages resulting in higher profits and improvement in reputation. Chen at al. (2006) and Chen (2008a, 2008b, 2011) published several research papers concerning enhancing a new concept of environnmental management and has shown that this can result in a green competitive advantage. Therefore supporting the energy supply with renewable-energies should not be seen as an costly investment, but as an investment towards corporate and environmental sustainability.
3. Summary and Conclusion
The centered raw material in this paper is clearly crude oil. Supporting green energy supply decreases the demand for oil, although it has been evidently shown that all oil reserves will be explored by future generations. The fact that many products contain ingredients extracted from oil and not only our transportation system is dependent on this raw material substantiate this certainty.
Peak-oil and peak-coal will be reached sometime therefore reducing the dependence of fossil fuels is one of the most important aspect for sustainability. Moreover reducing the demand for oil will reduce dependence from oil importing countries, such as Germany, and decrease the risk come into existence by the regional concentration by crude oil and natural gas. Collier and Hoeffler (2001) showed in their empirical research study in intensive impact of natural resources concerning wars and civil wars. Hereby they came to the result that the likelihood wihout natural resources is at about 0,5%, but if oil is major export good the likelihood rises up to 40%. What affects civil wars on environment, economy and society is very likely to be common notion and needs a elaboration for itself and therefore will not be described in detail. Furtermore the increasing transportation of fossil fuels in pipelines or with oil tankers imply arising risks. First, pipelines a crossing nations and continents and also political unstable regions. The risk using pipelines as pressuring agents in international conflicts is likely to happen in the future and oil spills because of corrosion of these pipelines are likely to rise. Second, oil shipments are also implying two risks. One is the environmental impact, as seen by the oil spill of Exxon Valdez in Alaska. The other risk are increasing pirate attacks, especially in the Gulf of Aden and the Somali coast. Moreover the exploration of non-conventional oil fields have a massive impact on environment and an immense use of water to make these fossil fuels accessible. Supporting green energy and therefore reduce C02 emissions have also impact on environment itself. Rising sea levels, deforestation, desertification, rising epidemics and increasing amount of climate refugees are commonly known aftereffects of global warming and reducing emissions by green energy supply would minimize this aftereffects to a certain level. But reducing C02 emissions and the demand for oil also imply opportunities. Chen et al. (2006) showed in this and other publications that improved technologies can result in green competitive advantage, higher profits and reputation.
The fight for making fossils fuels accessible, but also the likelihood for increasing conflicts and wars is explained by the massive dependence on oil and energy concerning economic growth and welfare. As seen in BP's Statistal Review of World Energy (2011) the US is already holding back its national fossil fuel sources very likely to be a consequence for the ability to satisfy future requirements of oil. As mentioned, scientists opinion about the peak-oil are going far apart. The increasing scarcity of oil implicate that nations will even become more secretive about the size of their reserves, by withholding important geological information. This is already common practice among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries because their production quotas and consequently revenues are linked to the size of their reserves (Howard, 2009). Furthermore the development of non-conventional oil fields give evident to the fact that easy accessible oil fields have already been exploited to a certain amount. The footrace for raw materials have already begun decades ago, and will find its peak in the future, sooner or later. Therefore supporting green energy will minimize the aftereffects, decrease the usage and demand for oil and other fossil fuels to attain sustainability for future generations. But what can governments, cooperations , non-governmental organizations and consumers do to support non-renewable energy? Some ideas will be given in the coming paragraph of future implications and ideas.
4. Future Implications and Ideas
1. As mentioned in the early beginning of this elaboration laws, regulation, policies and incentives have to be given my governments to induce investments in renewable-energy supply. Corporations already invested in the last few years in for example nuclear plants or other power plants using non-renewable fossil fuels to generate power are likely to postpone investments to make their present power plants profitable as long as possible. This is especially for nuclear plants the case. Once invested in a nuclear plant maintenance costs are relatively low. Once the Break-Even-Points is reached, the company's profit is almost the amount of sold generated power. Therefore, as seen by Germany's nuclear abandonement by 2022, political decisions to support renewable-energy supply are mandatory.
2. The exploitation of oil fields in especially poor regions in our world, for example in Nigeria, Africa, has to be closely observed by the local government to minimize the impact on environment and society. Corruption in these vulnerable regions often occur, therefore international help is needed to force the extracting oil companies to stick to rules that have been made. Impacts on health and society are clearly visible and chronic pollution-related diseases are increasing intensively. Moreover the profits are often remain in this countries only in a certain amount and in pockets from only a few people. A renewable energy supply in these regions is likely to be an unreached goal for many years. Unstable governmental conditions and broke countries, where fossil fuels are massively exported, are prosperous regions for huge environmental and societal problems, such as contamintated ground-water or civil wars. Collier and Hoeffler (2000) showed that in their empirical study, wherein the result was that the likelihood of civil wars rises in countries where oil is the major export good up to 40%. Concerning the Niger Delta and the environmental impact of oil minings in these regions the research paper from Dadiowei (2009) gives more and closer information about this topic.
3. Huge environmental impacts by the exploitation of especially oil are not only seen in poor regions. Last years Deepwater Horizon's (BP) blowout was a huge concern all over the world. But still BP is going to explore the Alaskan regions and is planning to produce oil in this very vulnerable environment as soon as possible. BP's newest offshore venture is expected to break long-distance drilling records and yield up to 40,000 barrels of oil a day by 2013 (Burke and Medred, 2010). Obviously political decisions about this project have been made before the unforeseen blowout in the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately much information is about this operation is off the record, although open to the public. The media has to strenghen its position in this point to decrease the possibilitiy of another environmental disaster. As seen through the massive problems BP had to stop the oil spill in this ultra-deepwater oil drilling rig, emergency plans lack in their reliabilty. Therefore risky projects like the “Operation Liberty“, BP's name for the Alaskan Operation, have to step back until technologies and emergency plans are mature, if at all maturity in this almost impenetrable regions is achievable. The neediness for oil has to be reduced and supporting renewables is the first step. Closer information to BP's operation in their official publication “Reaching Out To Liberty“(2008).
4. Consumers of energy, such as governments, companies and the general public can influence future developments of energy supply. By chosing energy only generated by renewable-energy power plants power supply companies can be forced to make new investments. The demand for power generated by nuclear plants or fossil fuel power plants is already decreasing around the world. A consequence of the recent Fukushima nuclear fuel melt in March 2011. Publications, such as “Top 20 Green Power Parners“ in America, released by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are supporting this development.
5. Concerning quality management a new approach is also suggested. Juran, who occupies one of the leading positions concerning quality management, has defined quality as “fitness for use“, which scientists nowadays still see as the closest definition to describe the term quality (Bisgaard, 2008). The quality of products and processes has to be, because of ecological and environmental-friendly reasons, newly defined and interpreted. Looking at the environmental problems and impacts, an only product-focused “fitness for use“ point of view seems outdated and insufficient. Efficient energy use and environmental friendly products and processes should be centered in the new definition of quality.
6. Chen (2006, 2008a, 2008b, 2011) has shown in his empircal research studies that supporting green innovation and technologies can lead to green competitive advantage. Therefore investing in more efficient technologies and environmental protective innovations shouldn't be seen only as a marketing instrument or short-term approach. It can be implemented in a company's strategic guideline and result in competitive advantage, higher profits and reputation.
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