The Sino-British Dispute Over Hong Kong: A game theory interpretation.

The “Game Theory” Metaphor

The author proposes the “game theory” metaphor to represent the benefit and loss situation faced by both Great Britain and China during their negotiations from the 1980s to the 1990s.  Upon explaining why both parties had a common interest in “maintaining Hong Kong as a free and prosperous city”, the author then explains the workings of the “game theory” metaphor – DD being the worst case scenario for both parties (where a break off in negotiations could destroy Hong Kong), DC being the best scenario for both parties (where greater political control would mean greater economic benefit from Hong Kong for one state and less for the other), CC being the second best outcome (where political sharing would be achieved) and CD being the second worst scenario (where conceding to the other party would mean only receiving benefits as a trading partner of Hong Kong).  This game described in the article can be called the game of “Chicken”.

     Player B – Great Britain

C                D

Throughout the article, the author makes good use of the “game theory” metaphor in explaining and reasoning the actions and negotiation tactics used by both parties – why Great Britain brought up the issue of negotiations over Hong Kong in the early 1980s, why Great Britain gave in and conceded to Chinese sovereignty, “one country, two systems” and strong Chinese rule over Hong Kong in 1982-1984, why Great Britain gained confidence in pushing for greater democratization in Hong Kong, followed by the start of its turn-around hard-nosed negotiation from the 1992-1993 negotiations onward.  The metaphor accurately depicts and describes the cost-benefit decisions made by both parties in their respective situations, allowing the reader to see, in very simple terms, the levels of cost and benefit that induced both parties’ actions.

The author proposes a good theory in a well-written article.  The theory can be considered a good theory because it is simple, is general, and is able to illustrate and reason the actions taken by both parties.  This fulfills the requirements of a good theory: Simplicity, Predictive Accuracy and Applicability.  In addition, the accurate historical documentation and constant reference to the “game theory” metaphor makes the article a good article that presents its theory and argument well.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Monroe, Alan D., Essentials of Political Research, Westview Press, 2000

Shively, W. Phillips, The Craft of Political Research, Prentice Hall, 2002

King, Gary, Keohane, Robert O. and Verba, Sidney,

Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Interference in Quantitative Research,

Princeton University Press, 1994

Ngok, Ma, THE SINO-BRITISH DISPUTE OVER HONG KONG: A Game Theory Interpretation, Asian Survey, Vol. 37, No. 8, Aug., 1997