Global warming and the basic mechanisms of climate change.

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Since the first warnings of global warming and the possibility of climate changes in 1885 by various scientists, researched has gathered insight into both the basic mechanisms of climate change and the potential impacts that can be expected in the future.  In response to these findings, 160 countries gathered at the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro, where they agreed to adopt the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC).  The Convention aimed to stabilise greenhouse gases “at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system, and provided guidelines and obligations for so-called “Developed Countries”. All countries were to develop a national database of the “anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks” and to devise a solution which will reduce the climate change; however, developed countries also had other commitments under the convention.

Within the Convention, it provided that “[t]he Conference of the Parties shall, at its first session, review the adequacy of” the commitments of the parties in order to asses whether the objectives of the Convention were being met.  At there first session in Bonn, the Berlin Mandate: a “mechanism by which binding reduction and limitation obligations would be negotiated; was adopted, as it became apparent that the ‘obligations’ of the Convention were not adequate; the large and influential countries e.g. USA and Japan, would not meet the non-binding targets by 2000, and that legally binding limits should be established. It was intended that by the third session of the Conference of the Parties (which was to be held in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997), the negotiations would result in a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’.  The Mandate offered considerations, which were to guide the negotiations, and stated that developing countries would face no new commitments and that developed countries should have quantified limitations and reduction objectives.  The Mandate believed that “the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof”.  

With negotiations completed, the obligations agreed upon were initialised on the 10th December 1997.  In contrast to the weak target embedded in the FCCC which required the parties to ‘aim’ to return their carbon dioxide emission levels to 1990 levels by 2000, the Kyoto Protocol was the first legally binding treaty aimed at cutting greenhouse gases and has been acknowledged as being the most far-reaching piece of international law to be issued in many decades.

The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding instrument, of the FCCC, which set legally binding limits for emissions of greenhouse gases, for all those who ratified it.  It was opened for signature on 16th March 1998 and will enter force 90 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 parties to the Convention, including developed countries accounting for 55% of the total 1990 carbon dioxide emissions from industrialised countries (Annex 1 countries).

Under the Protocol, it is the developed countries (Annex 1 countries) which are primarily responsible for reducing emissions, in order to avoid climate change and global warming; it is believed that because the developed countries are the large energy users and thus large greenhouse gas producers, it is these countries that should face the consequences in reducing the emissions.   As a result, Parties in Annex 1 shall:

individually or jointly, ensure that their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions of the greenhouse gases listed in Annex A do not exceed their assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to their qualified emission limitations and reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B and in accordance with the provisions of this Article, with the view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012

The obligation contains one specific commitment and one general commitment for each Annex 1 country.  The specific commitment, which is individual emission targets, for each Annex 1 country is outlines in Annex B.  There is a range of targets which include actual increases of 10 % as well as reductions of 8%.  This range reflects the various stages of development of economics (and dependency on fossil fuels) in tandem with political realities of the respective governments.  For example, the EU agreed to an 8 % reduction, the USA 7% reduction, Canada, Japan 6% reduction. Russia agreed to stabilise at 1990 levels, while Norway, Australia and Iceland were allowed to increase by 1%, 8% and 10% respectively.

As stated, developing countries are not contained in Annex 1, therefore, no emission limits apply to them and they are not required to do more than their existing commitments under Article 4(1) of the convention.  Kyoto Protocol, however, recognises the need for quicker implementation of the existing commitments: Article 10

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“All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, without introducing any new commitments for Parties not included in Annex 1, but reaffirming existing commitments . . . and continuing to advance the implementation of these commitments in order to achieve sustainable development”

Article 10 (b) and (c) outlines the commitments of developing countries, and although they are not new commitments, they are certainly an elaboration of the existing ones.

The Kyoto Protocol “will not solve the global warming problem, but is a vital ...

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