Conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina

2. THE CONFLICT

Is it correct to describe this conflict as an ethnic conflict? Why?

It is certainly an ethnic conflict because each side had incompatible and irreconcilable views over the definition, control and existence of BiH. (Burg & Shoup 1999: 128) Compromise was made impossible because of differing perceptions and principles from each side.  It was after the collapse of communism that political leaders and militia commanders were able to arouse anger and fear among ethnic B. Croats and B. Serbs, which consequently lead to the vicious attack between the former neighbours. (Wood 2001: 60)

What is the duration of the conflict, how intense has it been?

• At the point when Croatia’s and Slovenia’s independence was recognized it became obvious that war in BiH would eventually break out. In 1992, from February 29 to March 1, a Bosnian independence referendum was held.
• B. Muslims and B. Croats voted in favour of a sovereign and independent BiH.

• B. Serbs boycotted the referendum and declared the independence of the Serb Republic under the lead of Karadžić and his SDS party. (Friedman 2004: 43)  
• It was of dubious legality, and insistence on its being held, at the urging of the European Union, destroyed attempts to reach a political solution within the Bosnian Assembly. (Hayden 1999: 96)
• On the 3rd of March, the president of BiH, Izetbegović, declared independence and the subsequent recognition by the EC of the independence of BiH was the main trigger of the conflict. (Burg, Shoup: 118, 120). Within a few months Serb forces seized about 70% of the territory and lay siege to Sarajevo. (Friedman 2004: 44) The Conflict lasted until 1995 when the Dayton Peace Agreement was signed between the 3 warring parties.
• The conflict has produced a very high number of casualties especially due to various campaigns of ethnic cleansing, but estimates about the exact numbers vary.  

• Early estimates suggested that around 200,000 people were killed
• More recent and probably more accurate accounts suggest that the number of casualties during the period of 1992- 1995 is approximately 100,000. (Human Rights Watch 2006) 

• On April 4th 1992, Izetbegović ordered the mobilization of all police and the SDS called for the Serbs to evacuate the city. These events led the definite rupture between the Bosnian government and the B. Serbs. (Burg & Shoup 1999: 129)
• The fighting came from all 3 sides. In January 1993 the B. Croats and B. Muslims also began fighting.
• Different attacks, usually perpetrated by the B. Serbs, on the so called UN identified `safe havens´(i.e Bihać and Srebrenica) and different massacres, such as the February 1994 and August 1995 Markala market place massacres, galvanized the West into action.

What are the main claims that the different conflict parties make?

- Bosnian Muslims: The B. Muslims were determined that BiH’s status would be equal to that of neighbouring Serbia or Croatia.  (Friedman 2004: 41)  Izetbegović made it clear that, if the independence of Slovenia and Croatia would be recognized, BiH would follow this path and declare independence itself. (Burg & Shoup 1999: 70)  Throughout the conflict the B. Muslims wanted to see a unified BiH in fear of being reduced to an enclave.

- Bosnian Serbs: When the B. Serbs realized that their claims for a union with Yugoslavia were unrealistic, they still argued for a loose confederation which they thought would allow the Serb-dominated parts of Bosnia to eventually merge with Serbia. (Burg & Shoup 1999: 104) The main demands of the B. Serbs during the civil war were a partition of BiH and an exchange of population, which would ensure them ethnic domination and reduce the Muslim-held parts to an enclave (ibid: 172)

- Bosnian Croats: B. Croats were divided: While the Herzegovinian Croats preferred autonomy and unity with Croatia and hence were opposed to the Bosnian government, the Croats from central Bosnia and Sarajevo were in support of the Bosnian government and favoured a good relationship between the Muslims and Croats. (ibid: 197,198)

With what means do they pursue the conflict?

-Regular forces: 

• The Bosnian army (ARBiH, which was only officially organized by May 1992)
• The Bosnian Croat army (HVO)
• The Bosnian Serb army (VRS- supported by the Serbian state and made up of remnants from JNA)

-Irregular forces: 

• Around 83 other paramilitary units fought the war. (Friedman 2004: 44)
• Serbian irregular forces were often backed by the Yugoslav Army (JNA).
• The most prominent and cruel paramilitary unit from the B. Serb side were Arkan’s Tigers and the White Eagles led by the extreme nationalism Vojislav Šešelj
• Before the existence of the ARBiH, Sarajevo was defended by a group of two criminals called Caco and Ćelo and different Patriotic Leagues protected areas such as Bihac and Tizla. The Afghan mujahedin and other Muslim volunteers also helped the B. Muslims (ibid: 44,45)  

-Ethnic cleansing: 

• Various campaigns of ethnic cleansing were committed in order to homogenize different areas ethnically. The B. Serbs used a “policy” of ethnic cleansing but there is evidence that all three warring parties have used ethnic cleansing as a means. (Allen 1996:44)

-Genocide: 

• The Srebrenica massacre in July 1995 in which up to 8,000 boys and men from the enclave were killed, was ruled a genocide by the International Criminal Tribunal without however attributing responsibility to one party. (The Times Online 2007)

-Mass rape: 

• In 1995, the UN Human Rights Commission produced evidence (on the basis of “pregnant rapes”) that about 12,000 cases were raped during the conflict. Most rapes were committed by the B. Serbs but the B. Muslims and B. Croats have used the same means if not, to a lesser degree. (Allen 1996:45)

-Detention camps

• Furthermore different detention camps were set up by all sites, which strongly resembled the concentration camps of World War II (Burg & Shoup 1999: 173)

Did the conflict create refugees/ IDP’s? Why and where did people flee? Did they return?

• It is estimated that by the end of the war between ½ and 2/3 of Bosnia’s population did not live in the same place anymore as before the war.
• The International Centre for Migration Policy Development published the following numbers:
• Around 540,000 B. Serbs (39%), 490,000 B.Croats (67%) and 1,270,000 B. Muslims (63%) were internally displaced by the war and about 1.2 million inhabitants of BiH have fled to neighbouring countries, Germany and Italy. (Friedman 2004: 78)

Table taken from UNHCR Website 2007 ( )

3. CONFLICT MANAGEMENT

Has the conflict ended or is it still ongoing? How has it ended/what attempts are made to end it?

-The conflict in BiH is no longer ongoing in the sense that the fighting and killing between the ethnic groups has come to a halt.

-The conflict has ended because of the NATO-enforced Dayton Peace Agreement which was reached in Ohio in November 1995 and signed in Paris in December 1995 by the three warring parties.

-It established a cease-fire, an arms control regime and the provision of a constitutional order (Friedman 2004: 65)

-The DPA consists of the General Framework Agreement for Peace and 11 detailed annexes.  The goal was to establish a multiethnic, democratic BiH (Morton, Nation, Forage & Bianchini 2004: 190)

-The DPA has created a very weak government with a 3-person presidency and 2-chamber parliamentary system. This means that each entity still has its own president, legislature and military. (Friedman 2004: 62)

Has the “solution” been stable- why, or why not?

-The success of the DPA depended on the cooperation of both Serbia and Croatia.  They were required to aid the reconstruction of civil society within Bosnia by not meddling or stirring up trouble among their own national cohorts in BiH. (Friedman 2004: 118)  

-The solution proposed by the DPA was stable in the sense that it ended the fighting and killing between the three ethnic groups. Since 1995 there have been no major outbreaks of violence.

-While implementation of the military aspects of the DPA was relatively swift, civilian implementation, particularly with regards to the “right of return” of those displaced internally and externally, has been much more unsatisfactory, with continued obstruction and determined efforts, particularly by ethnic Serbs and Croats, to reinforce the country’s de facto partition. (Wood 2001: 60)

-The situation in BiH remains precarious and its future is uncertain (Bose 2002: 4)

-When Kosovo declared its independence on 17th February 2008, the Republika Srpska has expressed an interest to secede from BiH. This would obviously again create trouble in BiH.

Why have certain proposed solutions not worked?

There were a number of proposed “solutions” to the conflict in Bosnia, however many failed:

1. The-Vance Owen Plan:

A set of proposals presented at the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia (ICFY) in Geneva January 1993, under the chairmanship of Cyrus Vance and Lord Owen, proposing the reorganization of the country into 10 provinces, with Sarajevo being demilitarized first, followed by the rest of the nation.  (Burg & Shoup 1999: 221) Each of the main ethnic groups would be in the majority in three of the 10 provinces, with Sarajevo remaining ethnically mixed. The plan was endorsed by the B. Croats and B. Muslims, but eventually rejected by the B. Serb Assembly in April, which left Western powers divided over strategy in BiH.

2.  The Owen-Stoltenberg (Invincible) Plan:

The Owen-Stoltenberg, or Invincible, Plan involved partitioning BiH into a confederation of three ethnic states (Woodward 1995: 310).  This also led the US to call for the use of force against the principal violators, the Serbs.  However they only settled for the use of air power rather than use of troops on the ground. (Burg & Shoup 1999: 314). The Bosnian Parliament rejected this proposal (Woodward 1995: 311)

3. The Washington Agreement/ The Contact Group

It seemed that the key to ending the war lay in amending the relationship of B. Croats and B. Muslims and a ceasefire was eventually reached through the March 1994 Washington Agreement (Friedman 2004: 54).  Thus the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Muslim-Croat) was established which helped increase the pressure on B. Serbs to agree on a settlement.  

The Contact Group (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and later Italy, Canada and Spain) was set up to streamline the decision-making of the of the international community.  The group put forward a plan in July 1994 which called for the establishment of two entities: with 51% of territory in the Bosnian entity and 49% of territory in the Serb entity. On July 19 1994 the B. Serbs voted against the Contact Group map/plan which led to a stalemate. (Burg & Shoup 1999: 306)

Which external states and/or organisations have been involved in conflict management? In what capacity and with which agenda?

-A whole range of international organizations have been involved in attempting to transform BiH into an economically stable and politically viable state: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the United Nations (UNPROFOR) and some UN agencies: the World Bank and the International Monetary fund (IMF). These institutions are all strongly backed by the United States and other major Western powers. (Bose 2002: 3).

-Shortly after the DPA, the NATO-led `Implementation Force´ (IFOR) was sent into BiH to keep peace, separate the armed forces and delineate and transfer territory between the entities. IFOR was replaced by the NATO-led `Stabilization Force´ (SFOR) responsible for contributing to a secure environment. (Morton, Nation, Forage, Bianchini 2004: 191)  

-Today it is the European Union led, EUFOR Althea, who are responsible for overseeing the continuation of the DPA implementation.

-The Peace Implementation Council (PIC) was instituted to oversee the peace process and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) was created to help implement peace from above. (ibid: 192 and 194)

-During the civil war, the international community largely appeared powerless.

-The Contact Group members played a key role in conflict management of the war in BiH, but the US was most central, nevertheless it was hugely criticised.

-The most fundamental explanation of the lack of interest of U.S. in the early stages of the war was the view held by key policymakers that the fighting did not threaten U.S. national interests as the Balkans was of little economic or political importance to them.

-However, the U.S. were largely involved in efforts at unifying B. Muslims and the B. Croats against the B. Serbs, which eventually led to the end of the conflict.

DISCUSSION TOPICS:

1.  How far can the security dilemma be attributed to the cause of the ethnic conflict in BiH?

2. Discuss the role of Milošević with regard to the breakdown and rebuilding of BiH?

3. Could the international community have acted sooner?  To what extent did the international community fail?

4. To what extent has the independence of Kosovo put greater pressure on BiH for the current peace and stability to continue?

Bibliography:

BOOKS/ ARTICLES:

        

• Allen, Beverly (1996) `Rape warfare: the hidden genocide in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia´, electronic resource available at UNLOC.

• Bose, Sumantra (2002) `Bosnia after Dayton: Nationalist Partition and International Intervention´ London: C. Hurst & Co. (Publishers) Ltd.

• Burg, Steven L.; Shoup, Paul S. (1999) `the War in Bosnia-Herzegovina: Ethnic Conflict and International Intervention´ Armonk, New York and London, England: M.E Sharpe, Inc.

• Carter, F.W; Norris, H.T. (1996) ‘The Changing Shape of the Balkans’ London: UCL Press

• Chandler, David (1999) ‘Bosnia: Faking Democracy after Dayton’ London, Sterling: Pluto Press

• Friedman, Francis (2004) ‘Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Polity on the Brink’ London: Routledge

• Morton, Jeffrey S.; Nation, R. Craig; Forage Paul; Bianchini Stefano (2004) `Reflections on the Balkan Wars : Ten Years After the Break Up of Yugoslavia´ New York, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan

• O’Ballance Edgar (1995) `Civil War in Bosnia 1992-94´ Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire and London: MacMillan Press Ltd; New York: St. Martin’s Press, Inc.

• Woodward,  Susan (1995) ‘Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War’ Washington, D.C: The Brookings Institution

• Wood, William (2001) ‘Geographical Aspects of Genocide: A Comparison of Bosnia and Rwanda’ Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers (26:1) pp 47-75

WEBSITES:

• Human Rights Watch Website `A chance for Justice? War Crime Prosecutions in Bosnia’s Serb Republic: Background (March 2006) , date accessed: 3 march 2008

• International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia Website , date accessed: 6 march 2008

• Office of the High Representative and EU Special Representative Website (14 December 1995) `The General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina´ , date accessed: 2 March 2008

• The Economist Website `Holding Steady?´ (3 March 2008)  date accessed: 3 March 2008
• Times Online Website `Court clears Serbia of Srebrenica genocide´ (February 26, 2007)  , date accessed: 4 March 2008
• UN General Assembly Document A/50/329 (August 4 1995) , date accessed: 4 March 2008

MAPS / TABLES:

• OHR Website  , date accessed: 3 March 2008

• UNHCR Website (December 2007)  `BiH Fact Sheet´ , date accessed: 4 March 2008

• Wood, William (2001) ‘Geographical Aspects of Genocide: A Comparison of Bosnia and Rwanda’ Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers (26:1) p 67

Appendix 1

Map taken from OHR (Office of the High Representative) Website

Appendix 2

TIMELINE OF EVENTS OF War in BiH

1990-        Nov:        Multiparty elections held in BiH to mark end of communism.  

                

1991- Jun:         Slovenia and Croatia declare independence

                    Izetbegović requests that the international community provide preventive

                international troops deployment but the international community did not

                respond.

1992-        Feb 29, March 1: BiH independence referendum is held

          Mar 3:  Izetbegović declares independence of BiH

         Aug:    The UN Security Council votes to allow the use of military force to ensure that

                 humanitarian assistance reaches BiH’s citizens.

1993- Feb 2:         The Vance-Owen Plan proposed but rejected by Bosnian Serbs.

        Jun 4:         Establishment of 6 “safe areas”

        Sep:         The Vance-Stoltenberg Plan proposed but rejected by Muslims

1994-        Mar 1:  Washington Agreement signed, ending fighting between B. Croats and B. Serbs.

        Apr:     NATO’s first bombing mission carried out by American pilots

Jul:         Contact Group put forward their plan

        

1995-        May 24: UN issue ultimatum to B. Serbs and Bosnian government to pull back heavy           weapons from Sarajevo

        June:     NATO air war starts (it stops on September 20 when B. Serbs agree to negotiate)

July:          Srebrenica Genocide

        Dec 14: Signing of the Dayton Peace Accords in Paris

---