Is there a world population crisis? If so, what has caused it?
Is there a world population crisis? If so, what has caused it?
Amidst the many important issues that face the world today the problems associated with rapid population growth must rate among the most far-reaching. But can this growth be classed as a crisis, or is it simply another problem that mans versatility and technological knowledge has to contend with? In the past man has discovered medicines, such as penicillin, to combat illness and has developed methods of freezing to prolong a food substances life, so it is feasible to assume that he can also cope, in some manner, with an increasing population.
However, some people disagree with this assumption. In 1798 the Reverend Thomas Malthus wrote his "First Essay on Population" in which he presented his reader with two postulata:-
(1) Food is necessary to the survival of man
(2) The passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state.
He then linked these two statements by proving that an unchecked population had a tendency to increase in a geometrical ratio (ie. 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 etc.) whereas agricultural foodstuffs, necessary to the survival of man, increased in an arithmetical fashion (ie. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.). This observation lead Malthus to form the hypothesis that "the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man"; hence proposing that if there isn't a population crisis now, there very shortly will be.
Malthus's hypothesis can be supported by tracing back population growth over the years. In 1750, shortly before Malthus published his first essay, the worlds population was 0.8 billion people ("Population Geography", Huw Jones). Since then the world has experienced a population explosion that has taken its total to 5.3 billion in 1990, an increase of 4.5 billion people in 240 years. This population increase is even more rapid than these figures suggest, with a growth rate of 0.5% between 1750 and 1900 increasing to 1.7% between 1950 and 1990. Continuing on this trend, the population in 2020 will be in excess of 8 billion people.
Apart from the vast predictions for future population totals, there are two other factors that must be considered when trying to determine if the term "population crisis" is applicable to todays world.
The first factor is the unequal distribution of growth. In an essay "Geography and the worlds population" by C.Langdon White ("The Population Crisis", editor Larry K.Y. Ng) he says "half of the worlds people are concentrated on a mere 5% of the earths surface whereas 57% of the land supports only 5% of the people". According to present trends these statistics are to be amplified since, from figures released by the Overseas Development Administration, 95% of the growth between 1990 and 2020 is to be experienced in the developing countries of the world.
Why the developing world is experiencing this increase in population can be easily seen if we study the model of demographic transition (fig.1).
Graph to show the model of demographic transition (fig.1)
Key:-
(1) High Stationary - birth and death rates at high level
(2) Early Expanding - population increase, stable birth rate and declining death rate
(3) Late Expanding - slowing growth rate, death rate stabilises at a low level and birth rate declines
(4) Low Stationary - birth and death rate stabilised at a low level, population growth slow.
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Why the developing world is experiencing this increase in population can be easily seen if we study the model of demographic transition (fig.1).
Graph to show the model of demographic transition (fig.1)
Key:-
(1) High Stationary - birth and death rates at high level
(2) Early Expanding - population increase, stable birth rate and declining death rate
(3) Late Expanding - slowing growth rate, death rate stabilises at a low level and birth rate declines
(4) Low Stationary - birth and death rate stabilised at a low level, population growth slow.
In this model developed countries are in the low stationary phase of development whereas developing countries have only recently entered the early expanding phase. As we can see from this model (fig.1) the developing countries still have a long way to go before their population begins to stabilise.
The trend for developing regions indicated by the demographic transition model is supported by figures from the "United Nations Demographic Yearbook for 1990". This data shows that the 3 billion population of Asia is likely to increase by 1.9% per year, a significant rise when compared to the 0.2% that Europe is likely to experience. However, the greatest increase is in Africa where a growth rate of 3% per year is expected to take the population from 628 million in 1990 to 870 million by the year 2000, with no foreseeable end to the escalation. At present some of the countries, within these continents, are suffering from a food shortage, that could be deemed a crisis, even though the developed world has a huge food surplus. If this unequal distribution of food continues then the problems in the developing countries are going to escalate.
The final factor that is important to consider when discussing whether there is a "population crisis" in the world today is the division of people within a region, due to the fertility of the available land and mans needs for subsistence.
As we can see from the map showing areas of the world hospitable and hostile to man's occupance (fig.2), the massive increase in population within Africa is likely to cause serious problems of overcrowding in the limited fertile regions of the continent. This overcrowding will mean that peoples standard of living falls since the resources in the earth cannot sustain the population, inevitably leading to starvation and death.
Areas of the world hospitable and hostile to mans occupance (PTO) (fig.2) (source: "The Population Crisis" editor Larry K.Y. Ng)
Key:-
Favourable Too Cold
Too Hot Too Dry
Too High
The effects that are likely to be experienced by Africa's rapid and continued growth are already happening, on a smaller scale, all over the globe. In China the majority of the 1 billion population live in the east of the country. Here the economy is dictated by the great drainage basins of the Huang He and the Chang Jiang, which support intensively irrigated agriculture. The west and north of the country are sparsely populated since cultivation is restricted to the sheltered valleys and oases.
In the case of China the United Nations 1990 population density figure of 105 people per square kilometre is misleading since it uses the total area of the country. The population density figure would be dramatically increased if it only took into account the fertile land mass, or land suitable to sustain man, giving a truer reflection of the living standards within China and other specific countries.
Returning then to the initial question "Is there a world population crisis?" the answer must be that if the population remains unchecked then Malthusian theory will play an important role in predicting the future course of events, since the production of foodstuffs will not maintain the levels of people throughout the world. Even with technological advancements and discoveries I believe it unlikely that subsistence, increasing arithmetically, will catch up with the geometrically increasing population, since in two centuries the population would be to the means of subsistence as 256 to 9. Even with the greatest imagination and optimism it is hard to believe that man can increase his yields by 2800%. However, this crisis, created by a food shortage, could be significantly reduced if the problems linked with food surplus distribution were overcome.
Another factor that has important implications and can be linked to population growth is that the amounts of waste material emitted by man will dramatically increase along with population. This has obvious environmental consequences such as an increase in the intensity and frequency of acid rain and toxic red tides and the accelerated depletion of the ozone layer and greenhouse effect.
Both of these factors have the potential to alter the lives of billions of people and affect the long established ecosystems that maintain the balanced environment in which we live. For these reasons I believe it true that the world is about to experience a population crisis.
The population explosion in 1750 that forms the basis for the imminent crisis has evolved because of a variety of important and integrated factors.
The first of these is due to a general increase in the standard of living, which means an increase in components such as food supply; medical facilities and sanitation. All of these measures significantly decrease mortality rates which, when combined with stable birth rates, results in a net increase in population (see fig.1 and "early expanding"). This change in the standard of living is partly due to government intervention and partly due to relief work from charities such as Oxfam and Band Aid.
A further possible cause for this population increase is the role of religion, an integral part of millions of peoples lives. The power of some religious denominations is so great that it can affect the pattern of human reproduction within a society, an example of this is Islam.
This religion is widespread throughout Africa and Central Asia, with about 430 million followers, and promotes high fertility rates through the low status of women. Roman Catholicism also influences fertility rates in Latin America, where the religion has a particularly strong following, since it bans the use of all contraceptives.
Religions also have the power to influence government state policies, for example Muslim Pakistan, where family planning is ignored. In a quote by Dr. John Seaman, Save the Childrens medical officer, he says "At the federal level they are nervous about contraception, so in the urban areas there is virtually nothing. Women can get help from family welfare clinics, but its difficult, because socially its not on for them to go there".
The idea of governments having a large role to play in population growth is further enhanced when we consider the
pro-natalist approach adopted by some countries.
This pro-natalist approach was used by Hitler in 1932 to encourage the growth of a superior race. As German Chancellor he decided to give people large tax reductions once they were married and had children. These benefits were paid providing the couple were racially correct, tall and had blond hair and blue eyes.
Another dictator who encouraged pro-natalist policies was Romania's late president Ceaucescu, who taxed the childless and saw the foetus as the "property of the country". In a German magazine, "Der Spiegel", he was quoted as saying "Giving birth is a patriotic duty". This approach has now left thousands of young children malnourished and unwanted in Romania.
One further example of governments adopting pro-natalist policies is Malaysia. Here the country is undergoing rapid industrialisation and sees a larger population as a means of creating a larger home market and workforce, that will eventually strengthen its economy.
The final factor that has a significant part to play in the worlds population explosion is culture. This is vitally important since, like religion, it can alter what people perceive as right and wrong. An example of cultures role in this population growth is in traditional African tribes which see a high rate of fertility as a symbol of virtue.
In many poverty stricken regions of Africa and Asia large families were seen as an insurance policy against high infant mortality rates. However, mortality rates are quite quickly coming down in these areas (fig.1 "early expansion") due to the increased availability of essential medical facilities, but this is having no effect on the number of children being born. Having large families has gone on so long that it has become an accepted part of the culture and they therefore continue to have large families, resulting in a rapid population increase.
The combination of an improved standard of living with cultural and religious beliefs and government policies has contributed to the population explosion experienced since 1750. This growth is resulting in a vast gap opening up between the number of people on the planet and the earths capabilities of sustaining them and hence is closely following Malthusian theory. At this present moment the issue of population growth is still just a problem that has to be overcome, however, if it is left unchecked the problem will quickly escalate into the predicted crisis, causing worldwide depravity and death. What is needed is an efficient programme of global education and family planning facilities to curb the geometrical growth and also some technological revolution, similar to the Egyptian irrigation innovation, that allows previously infertile land to become useful to man. If these targets could be reached it would reduce the crisis to an inconvenience, saving huge numbers of lives and lifting the gloomy depression now obscuring some developing countries goals.
Bibliography
Malthus, T - First Essay On Population - 1798
Vinovskis, M.A. - Demographic History and the World Population Crisis - 1974
Jones, H - Population Geography - second edition
Knowledge Encyclopedia
The Times Atlas of the World
Johnston, Gregory, Smith (editors) - Dictionary of Human Geography - second edition - 1990
Geographical Magazine - Jan 1992 - Population policies
Larry, K.Y. Ng (editor) - The Population Crisis
