The Thatcher years, with her committed unionist views, virtually excluded the constitutional issue and it became clear not only that Scotland was voting for left of centre parties and getting a right-wing government based in London but also that the right wing government was intent on changing the nature of Scottish society itself. Scotland's status in Britain was a subject considered taboo throughout the Thatcher period and, apparently, also under John Major. The result of this are reflected in the election results of the Conservatives in Scotland. Out of the 72 available seats in Scotland, the number of elected Conservative MPs fell from 22 in 1979 election, to just 10 in the 1987 election. Even with a new Prime Minister, the Conservatives only managed to get 11 MPs in the 1992 election and this can be compared to the 36 that they had after the 1955 election. There was also a growing feeling for change in Scotland. While the percentage of those who wanted no change to the present system stayed fairly constant at around 20% throughout the 1980s/90s. The percentage who wanted to remain in the UK but with its own devolved assembly with some taxation and spending power (ie devolution/ Home Rule) halved from around 50% in the early 1980s to around 25% in 1992. Conversely, the percentage who wanted independence the UK (either in or out of the EU) doubled from round 25% in the early 1980s to just over 50% in 1992. With the political mood changing throughout Britain as a whole in 1992 and as the Conservatives were the only committed unionists, Scotland seemed to be heading for Devolution under a Labour or Labour/ Liberal government of even Independence under the SNP. The election in 1992 came at a time of nationalist optimism that made its result genuinely shocking. The Conservatives were looking weak and the SNP now had a clear strategy, "Scotland in Europe"; a fresh and impressive leader- Alex Salmond; and a political gap on the left- right spectrum to exploit. It even had a mass readership newspaper preparing to support and promote it, the Scottish Sun.
However, results were not as expected and the Conservatives stayed in power. The assumptions about "our turn" and "it's only a question of time" had been destroyed. It seemed that single party rule at Westminster had become the rule and that Britain was in the hands of a party which was totally opposed to constitutional change for Scotland. Labour had proved unable to win even in the trough of recession. In England, which returns more than four in five of the MPs, Labour had managed to get just under 34% of the vote. Swift changes in Parliamentary boundaries, combined with demographic shifts and a new consensus supporting the Conservative government, all suggested that Labour faced a big problem if they were to get into power in 1996-97. So the most obvious road to Scottish Home Rule since the 1920s, the election of a Labour government committed to it, was blocked.
However, the Scottish movement did not shrivel up and die after the 1992 election but instead produced an out break of new Home Rule groups. People with little political experience were dismayed and wanted 'to do something'. A new cycle of Home Rule politics in Scotland was emerging and the political mainstream for the Home Rule movement remained eloquent, numerous and self confident but it did suffer a set back when John Smith, leader of the Labour Party and Scottish MP, died. In England, constitutional reform became a major cause for the non-Conservatives. Scottish Home Rule was included on the political agenda, alongside a written constitution, a Bill of Rights, voting reform and so on, of the politically optimistic.
That said, John Major and the Conservatives have become increasingly unpopular, not just in Scotland (where in the April 1995 local government elections they failed to gain control of a single Scottish council- even though they had introduced the new 28 single-tier authorities) but also in England. It looks increasingly likely that Labour, under Tony Blair, will win the next General Election, but then nothing is certain in politics. If they do, Scotland will get its Home Rule.
While the SNP are a strong political force in Scotland I cannot see them getting enough support in order to make Scottish Independence a reality. This is probably just as well because I feel that this would be economic suicide for Scotland and there is no guarantee that the EU would want Scotland to join it because some member states would fear repercutions in their own countries- such as the Bavarians in Germany or the Basques in Spain. I think the reason why Scotland has never been happy with the present political dominance of a London based Parliament, is perceived English arrogance towards Scottish affairs. The decline of the British Empire has meant that Britain had less international influence and therefore a there has been a decline of "Brutishness" which has lead to the rise of "Scottishness" within Scotland. Therefore, there is an increase in the desire for a separate identity but in an European context within the EU. Scotland has always been less frightened of European Union and being part of it, unlike the paranoia of some 'little Englanders' because Scotland is used to being a lesser partner in Britain. Historically, too, the "Auld Alliance" with France still resonates. The main problem is that many English people have no concept of the sense of nationalism, heritage and pride of the Scots. Scotland, in some quarters, is thought as another English region. The Scottish identity has always been strong but it is enjoying renewed enthusiasm, as Scottish history is now being taught in Scottish schools and there is an increased interest in Gaelic (especially via Gaelic rock music, such as RunRig, which appeals to the youth) which makes all Scots aware of their Scottish heritage.
The prize is a wealthy, happy Scotland, which is content with its status in the world's affairs and this looks as if it might be about to happen when, rather than if, devolution finally arrives during this, the last decade of the twentieth century.
