Sensitivity analysis provide information for decision makers to more informed about project sensitivities, to know the room they have for judgemental error and to decide whether they are prepared to accept the risks.
During the implementation phase of the investment process the original sensitivity analysis can be used to highlight those factors which have the greatest impact on NPV. Decision makers can draw on key parameters differ significantly from the estimates. For example, this project is highly sensitive to the price of product. $50 of change can make a great impact on NPV. Managers after recognising this from the sensitivity analysis should make some plans to avoid big change of price.
From sensitivity analysis of Pentre plc, we can see market size in year 2 to year 5 is more sensitive than market size in year 1. Thus the company should take more efforts to keep and extend its market share from second year.
Sensitivity analysis also has many drawbacks. For example, the absence of any formal assignment of probabilities to the variations of the parameters is a potential limitation. Change of government policy, eventuality impact such as SARS.
Another criticism is that each variable is changed in isolation while all other factors remain constant. For example, if inflation is higher then both anticipated selling prices and input prices are likely to be raised.
b) Merits and Drawbacks of the Use of Internal Rate of Return
The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the discount rate at which the (NPV) of a project equals zero. The IRR decision rule specifies that all independent projects with an IRR greater than the cost of capital should be accepted. When choosing among mutually exclusive projects, the project with the highest IRR should be selected).
IRR method has many advantages that make it one of the most widely used methods for evaluating capital investments.
First, the IRR makes an appropriate adjustment for the time value of money. The value of a dollar received in the first year is greater than the value of a dollar received in the second year, and even cash flows that arrive several years in the future receive some weight in the analysis.
Second, the hurdle rate itself can be base on market returns obtainable on similar investments. This takes away some of the subjectivity of other analytical methods that must be made when using payback or accounting rate of return, and it allows managers to make explicit, quantitative adjustments for differences in risk across projects.
Third, because the ‘answer’ that comes out of an IRR is a rate of return, it is easy for both financial and nonfinancial managers to grasp intuitively.
Fourth, the IRR technique focuses on cash flow rather than on accounting measures of income.
Though it represents a substantial improvement over payback or accounting return analysis, the IRR technique has its own set of problems that should analysis.
One common problem is the difficulty associated with its calculation. In most circumstances the IRR of a project can only be found by trial-and-error. This is because the number of periods (or cash flows) involved in the project needs to be solved to calculate the IRR. IRR is the discount rate at which the NPV of a project’s cash flows in equal to zero. Since zero is a number that lies between a positive number and a negative number, IRR must lie between two discount rates. So we need to ‘guess’ a starting point to perform the interpolation.
The second problem is that the nature of the rule must be modified depending on whether the project under evaluation is an investing project or a financing project (e.g. borrowing money from a bank). In the case of an investment, a corporation will accept a project with a high rate of return. With a financing project, the corporation is looking for the cheapest source of finance. Hence, the decision rule for a project must be modified to take into account whether it is an investment project or a financing project.
Another problem with the IRR technique arises from the fact that a rate of return does not take into consideration the size of a project. This is sometimes referred to as the ‘problem of scale’. Incorrect investment decisions could be made when applying the IRR rule, because it ignores projects’ sizes.
QUESTION 2: Valuing Shares
g = retention rate * return on investment
= 25% * 15%
= 3.75%
a) i. Dividend model
V4 = D5 / (r – g)
= 348.51 / (15%-3.75%)
= 3097.87
V0 = 120*0.8696+223.2*0.7561+291.65*0.6575+335.92*0.5718+3097.87 *0.5718
= 104.35+168.76+191.76+192.08+1771.36
= 2428.31
a) ii. Earnings based model
E * 1/15% = 300x1/15% = $2000
Vt = 180*0.8696 + 148.8*0.7561 + 124.99*0.6575 + 111.97*0.5718
= 156.53+112.51+82.18+64.03
=$415.25
R5 / (r – g) * 0.5718
= 116.17 / (15%-3.75%) * 0.5718
= 590.45
V0 = 2000 + 415.25+ 590.45
= 3005.7
a) iii. Assumptions
- There are no taxes. The absence of corporate income taxes is assumed.
- There are no costs of financial distress. For example, there are no transactions costs, and all securities are infinitely divisible.
- There are no asymmetries of information. It implies that the expected values of the probability distributions of expected operating earnings for all future periods are the same as present operating earnings.
- The investment and operating policies of the firm are given and investors are assumed to be rational and to behave accordingly.
b) Price earnings ratio
A price-earning ratio is a commonly used way to simplistically value a company, determine what a company's stock should be worth. It is also known as "P/E", is calculated by dividing the company's stock price by the company's earnings per share, or "EPS".
The P/E ratio gives an indication of how many times shareholders paying for a company's stock compares a company's earnings. P/E ratios can be used to compare against other companies, or against a company's own historical P/E ratio. Investors usually are willing to pay a higher P/E for companies they judge will be growing faster than the norm even though they do not pay those earnings out in dividends but retain them to fund future growth. If that growth is realized, the price of the company's stock usually grows faster than the overall stock price of the slower growth or higher dividend paying company. However, if estimated earnings are not realized or the stock market itself loses favor with the investor, such as higher interest rates attracting investment capital, the downside potential is greater as well. The risk is not just the ability of the company to create profits, but the investment risk in the higher price you paid relative to earnings.
http://www.listedcompany.com/ir/osim/web/stock.cgi
OSIM is a global leader in healthy lifestyle products. It is the leading Asian brand for healthy lifestyle products.
OSIM’s P/E ratio decreased in the four years though the EPS increased rapidly. This means investors predict company’s future isn’t as good as former years. The price is going down, but the risk is lower than before. However, this is also a good growth stock for those who can buy and hold for further growth including bonus issues which the company had given every few years because healthy lifestyle products has a good outlook in the future.
Brilliant Manufacturing Limited.
http://www.listedcompany.com/ir/brilliant/web/stock.cgi?
Brilliant Manufacturing produces precision machining of 5.25" floppy disk drive aluminium housing for Tandon in Singapore. After the acquisition of Tandon by Western Digital, The Company grew substantially from servicing Western Digital to other valued customers in the Hard Disk Drive ("HDD") sector.
P/E ratio decreased rapidly from 2002, this is because the boom of computer and internet industry in 2001. Stepped to 2003, due to the down results for the financial year, P/E ratio dropped quickly from 39 to 13 but the earnings also increased almost 4 times last year. That means the investment is worth and the company is still earning profits.
Giant Wireless Technology
http://www.listedcompany.com/ir/giant/web/stock.cgi?
Since commencing its operations in 1988, Giant Wireless Technology has grown to become a leading developer and manufacturer of wireless telecommunications solutions and electronics products for the U.S., Europe and China markets.
Though the EPS decreased from FY2003 to FY2004, the P/E ratio increased 2 percent. This means investors give a high prediction to company. They willing to pay a higher P/E for company, judge company will be growing faster than the norm even though they do not pay those earnings out in dividends but retain them to fund future growth. If that growth is realized, the price of the company's stock usually grows faster than the overall stock price of the slower growth or higher dividend paying company.
QUESTION 3: Financing Decisions
a)i. earning per share
a)ii. Level of earning at which EPS will be same
EBIT – 0 – EBIT*30% = EBIT – 54 – (EBIT-54)*30%
- 270
EBIT = 151.2
b) Discuss some of the factors that are likely to limit the amount of debt that a company is likely to want to employ in its financing.
Company is financed by ordinary shares (equity) or debt. Generally, debt has a cheaper direct cost than equity. There are two distinct reasons for this:
- Debt has low risk results in a low required return. Thus, company can reduce the cost of financing.
- Interest can be paid before taxation, whereas dividends are not.
However, borrowing isn’t perfect. To determining how much debt to use, corporate should first consider taxes. The government allow corporations to deduct interest payments from income before taxation, this essentially subsidizes dollar paid in interest. But any borrowing at all will cause the cost of equity capital to rise, offsetting the cheap direct cost of debt.
Financial distress may also keep firms from loading up on debt. Explicit financial distress costs include the payments made to lawyers, accountants, and so on. they reduce the cash flows that will eventually be paid to the bondholders and stockholders. Clearly, investors would prefer that firms stay out of financial distress so that these losses are not incurred.
Corporations must also consider the indirect costs of bankruptcy. As the firm takes on more and more debt, the probability of bankruptcy increases. This cause the firm will not be able to meet interest payments in any given year and will be forced into default goes up as the amount of debt and corresponding interest increases. It includes the costs of low inventories, higher costs of inputs from suppliers who fear the company might not pay its bills next month, and the loss of customers who desire a long-term relationship with the firm. These costs prevent firms from maintaining exceptionally high levels of debt.
A fourth factor limiting the use of debt is desire for control by current shareholders. M&M theory in a 1976 article, noted differences between the firm that is 100 percent manager owned and one where the equity is owned partially by managers and partially by outsiders. The managers should run the firm to maximize its value. But managers may not implement their decisions because of the control of shareholders. On the other hand, debtors cannot control the firm’s management that is advantaged.
Availability of assets for pledge also limits the use of debt. In order to ensure its security of loan, bank always acquires pledges from the company and this kind of pledges should be easy to be realized. If the company lack of assets that can be used as pledges, it must be difficult to raise money as debt.
When a company starts to borrow, the advantages always go with the disadvantages. In order to minimize the cost of capital and maximize the earning, company should consider above-mentioned factors carefully to gain benefits from financial leverage.
c) Dividend Payment Policies
-
residual dividend – pay dividend only if more earnings available than are needed to support optimal capital budget
NTUC Income Shares
Its dividend policy is to reward shareholders for investment earnings on their capital, which is used to back our business. Dividends are declared on all shares held during the financial year and are based on their business performance during the year. It is declared at the Annual General Meeting and is credited directly to your bank account. Dividend is payable in full on shares held for a duration of 12 calendar months during the financial year and on a pro-rated basis on shares held for less than 12 months.
http://www.google.com.sg/search?q=cache:XweOBesthMcJ:incnet.income.com.sg/uishare/main.aspx+dividend+policy&hl=en
-
stable ‘growth rate’ – set target growth rate for dividend and strives to increase dividend by that amount every year
ACOM CO., LTD. （Tokyo Stock Exchange）
ACOM’s dividend policy is to provide shareholders with stable dividend growth. Dividends for the fiscal year under review included an amount equivalent to the commemorative dividends paid last year in the interim and year-end dividends as well as a ¥5.00 per share increase in the term-end dividend, to ¥22.50. Consequently, the total year dividend for fiscal 1998 was ¥40.00 per share, a rise of ¥5.00 from the previous year. This represents a payout ratio of 13.3% and a 2.0% dividend on equity.
www.c-direct.ne.jp/english/ divide/10108572/8572_98/8572e_02.pdf
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Constant payout – pay certain amount of earnings as dividends (or pay a constant $ amount each year).
Neptune Orient Lines (NOL)
NOL is a global transportation company, with core businesses involved in container transportation and supply chain management.
NOL intends to maintain an annual dividend of 8 Singapore cents per share net, or a full year dividend payout of 20% of net profits, whichever is higher. In line with this policy, the Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of 7 Singapore cents per share net (8.75 cents gross). This dividend is issued out of existing Section 44 tax credits and is payable on 30 August 2004.
http://www.nol.com.sg/newsroom/04news/040727.html
-
low regular dividend plus ‘extra’ – pay a low regular dividend and an extra at the end of the year (depending on the earnings performance that year)
SINGAPORE Exchange (SGX)
July 30, 2004 SGX proposed a final dividend of 4.075 cents per share and a special dividend of 6.5 cents, bringing the total payout for FY04 to 13.5 cents per share.
It paid 40.5 cents per share in dividends last year, including a special 34-cent dividend from the liquidation of assets.
http://business-times.asia1.com/story/0,4567,124036,00.html
Bibliography
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‘Corporate Finance’ by Stephen A Ross (1999)
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‘Corporate Finance Management’ by Glen Arnold (2000)
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‘Corporate Financial Management’ by Douglas R. Emery & John D. Finnerty (1999)
University of Wales – MDIS Page of
