How Far Can 1997 Be Described As a “Critical Election?

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HOW FAR CAN 1997 BE DESCRIBED AS A "CRITICAL ELECTION?"

The general election of 1997 was seen by many to be a fore-gone conclusion. The experts and the polls had been predicting a Labour victory for almost five years, ever since Black Wednesday in September 1992, and many felt election day itself, may just be a forgettable formality. What had not been expected, however, was one of the biggest Parliamentary majorities in recent times, and one of the biggest collapses of any government in history. Was it, therefore, a "critical election"?

The whole terminology surrounding a critical election began in 1955, when V.O. Key identified the type of contest "in which the depth and intensity of electoral involvement are high, in which more or less profound readjustments occur in the relations of power within the community, and in which new and durable electoral groupings are formed." The key word here is "durable" because we need time to know whether a critical election has actually occurred. Subsequently, as Pippa Norris explains, "this idea was extended by Angus Campbell (1966) to classify elections into three categories, as 'maintaining', 'deviating' or 'critical' types."

A "maintaining" election is one where very little alters politically, such as the 1992 general election. The issues that dominated the campaign would follow the old agenda, i.e. economic performance, or the welfare state. Similarly, the social alignments of the voters would be consistent with previous elections, such as the Conservative's predominance amongst professional middle classes. In addition, the election "would continue the imbalanced and weakened two-party system which has characterised Britain since the early seventies, with the Conservatives as the dominant party of government facing a divided opposition." There would be no return to the era of pendulum politics, circa 1945-70, when both main parties had regular stints in office. Upon this evidence, it was very unlikely that 1997 would produce a "maintaining election" and indeed a huge Labour victory in itself clearly provided no such contest.

A "deviating election" seemed more likely, if the polls were to be believed. As Pippa Norris explains, "in these contests the basic pattern of social and issue alignments is not seriously disturbed, but particular personalities or events produce a temporary reversal in the normal share of the vote for the majority party." This may have produced a weak Labour government, possibly relying on third-party support, due more to voters' negative reaction to the Conservatives, rather than a positive move towards Labour. In addition, it would be expected that the Labour support mobilised amongst traditional voters, but failed to break into the Conservatives' "middle-ground." The "old" policy agenda, would have dominated the campaign and "there were no great issues dividing the parties in the eyes of the electorate." Once again, 1997 does not fall into this category, due mainly to such a strong Labour government. It is possible to argue that much of the electorate voted "negatively", such as the huge evidence of tactical voting against the Conservatives, but there was clearly a much stronger existence of a "positive" switch towards New Labour. The Conservatives would support Norris' suggestion of there being little difference between the parties, but this was not the case with newer policy areas, such as constitutional reform. Thus it would appear that the 1997 general election falls more neatly into the category of a "critical election."
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Is 1997, therefore, one of those extremely rare elections that will rank alongside, or even above, the Century's other historic elections? Although psephologists differ over which should be included in this category, the Liberal victory of 1906, and the Labour landslide of 1945 will almost certainly be present. Other possibilities include 1918, 1974 or Thatcher's small, but immensely significant conquest in 1979. From the off-set it was always possible in 1997, but still very doubtful - the result was almost certain and many wondered whether the voters were really interested enough to make this into something special. For ...

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