The 'Missing Million'

Other reasons, not yet mentioned, for the decline of young males includes the growth in university gap years, which now account for around 200,000 young travellers a year. Mr Cook said a pattern of longer emigration, stretching to several years, was also likely as young people immerse themselves in foreign countries. Not to mention the Mediterranean party scene. Students on gap years head abroad to strengthen their CV, working a year abroad shows they have experience at an international level. Mr Cook said: "I wouldn't be surprised if the rave culture abroad had contributed, particularly with large numbers of jobs available for young people across the EU.".

There is also evidence of many young men heading further a field. Australia, which has an annual immigration quota of 75,000, accounts for at least 50,000 young Britons in the past 10 years, with Canada welcoming similar numbers

This is the current age structure of the UK and we can that in the 20 to 24 year old range there is a noticeable difference than in different age ranges. In the future this could have noticeable effect on the age structure; if the people did not return to the UK then there would be less old people and so the top of the tree diagram, as above, would be thinner. Also, it would show that there would be more females than males. Another important consequence could be a further reduction in birth rate as there are fewer men to help women get pregnant and also women may be more career minded, especially with the lack of males, and so have no time for children. In addition, if the current trend of young males going abroad in their twenties continues then the UK could see a population decrease, with net migration taking more out than in.

This pushes the already scary demographics that are being predicted to an even further extreme. The census confirms that we are a growing, ageing population, already tipping over the 60 million-mark, with a peak of 76 million expected by the middle of the century. That isn't news, any more than is the fact that we're completely unprepared to cope with it.

With people living longer as well it has caused several economic consequences: Pensions could be reduced because the company have to pay out for longer but also it could cause an increase in taxes as the government recuperate revenue they miss out on. Town halls pay particular attention to the Census results as they form the basis for the calculation of the annual grants received by local authorities from central government. Manchester will receive less money in their grant because their population fell 15.1% since 1981, where as Milton Keynes will receive more money as its population has risen 64.4% since 1981. Westminster called for a review of the figures as its population was 64,000 less than in 2000, and so will reflect in their grant. The grants received are used by the local councils to provide services to the public, so the bigger the population the more money needed to provide services for them such as maintenance of the town.

The Census has attracted criticism when it emerged that 2 per cent, around a million people, were added to the census using data gathered from a nationwide survey: This is to make up for the missing 6%. The census coverage survey, the largest of its kind in the world, questioned 330,000 people, whose responses were used to top up the missing numbers. This questions the accuracy of the survey but the results are large enough to make conclusions.

Further quantities of data from the 23 million returned forms will be formally released in February next year.

In conclusion, we have seen that there is a 'missing million' from the UK's population. This is from estimates made using population growth to estimate future populations. It is predicted that by the mid twentieth century the population could be over 76 million, largely due to the reduction in crude death rates. Of the 900,000 missing people, 600,000 are thought to be young males that have emigrated abroad in search of a party lifestyle in the Mediterranean, and at least 50,000 in Australia. These trends has economic consequences as regional population change has effects on the grant the councils receive from central government; also taxes may be increased to cope with the overall population increase. Pensioners may find their pensions are reduced because people are living to and older age. However, there has been criticism over the accuracy when about 1 million people have been invented by officials to make up for the people who did not return forms.

Rory Neill 13AW