Similarly, Austria-Hungary’s “hawks” also pursued a violent policy and created several international conflicts. They provoked the Bosnian Crisis when the Empire annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina to its own territory, upsetting the Russians and also the Serbs, who lost their chance of getting sea access. Probably as a result, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was murdered by Serb students inside Bosnia-Herzegovina. This incident, as insignificant as it may seem at an international level, was the main trigger for the detonation of the First World War, as it led to the Austrian invasion of Serbia. This supports the fact that Austria was keen to fight a war with the Serbs in order to solve the internal problems they had to face due to nationalism. This is emphasized by the Austrian ultimatum, considered unreasonable as it stated in one of its terms that the Serbs would have to allow Austrian officials inside their territory. This ultimatum can be considered as an excuse for the invasion of Serbia, as Austria’s Berchtold presumed the Serbs would refuse to accept it and it would seem he was determined to destroy the Serbian threat by direct military action.
On the Allied front, it seems the powers did little to avoid the war. While Russia and France took on Germany’s challenge by refusing to accept the ultimatum, it was unclear how far Britain would go if Germany and Austria-Hungary started a war. Russia, after realizing it could not expand at the Far East anymore because of the Japanese influence, had become more interested in the Balkans and was willing to support Serbia if it decided to fight Austria-Hungary. France, although not keen to fight a war, did little to avoid it as she wanted to recover Alsace and Lorraine, and get her revenge. Britain, even though it had followed a policy of “splendid isolation” and was proud of it, was willing to go to war in order to keep the balance of power in Europe. No power made an effort to back down.
All the issues stated have stressed the point that the war started in1914 was no accident, and even though no attempt was made to stop it on the Allied front, it seems to have been premeditated on the aggressive front.
On the other hand, it could be argued that the war was an accident, produced by diplomatic mistakes. From 1871 until 1890, Prussia’s Bismarck, after achieving the union of the German states, followed a pacifist policy. His system understood that good relations with the great powers were better for his country’s future. He realized he needed to keep Germany “à trois in a Europe of five powers”, meaning that by maintaining an alliance with two of the five great powers, he could guarantee German security. This idea was the main constituent of the “Dreikaiserbund”, or “League of the Three Emperors” which involved securing a friendship between Germany, Russia and Austria-Hungary for protection against a France who, Bismarck understood, would seek revenge for the incorporation of Alsace and Lloraine to the German territory. Therefore, Bismarck concentrated in isolating France and kept good terms with Britain. By pronouncing the words “My map of Africa lies in Europe” he made clear his lack of ambition to expand German power around the world which he knew was Britain’s main concern. Bismarck also signed the Dual Alliance with Austria-Hungary which was then joined by Italy, forming the Triple Alliance. He also managed to sign the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia in 1887, assuring neutrality between them in any war. However, the stability of the Bismarckian system in Germany crumpled when Kaiser Wilhem gained control of the country in 1889. He decided to reject Bismarck’s cautious policies and aimed at making Germany the strongest and most powerful country in Europe. He fortified the German army and created a Naval League for the construction of a large navy. This was a wrong diplomatic move, as it gave too much power to the German general staff, who started making military plans, and also angered Britain who was not content with the threat the naval race posed to their empire. It also led to the formation of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1902 when Japan promised to protect British Far Eastern possessions, allowing the concentration of the British fleet in the North Sea. Furthermore, the Kaiser also started a military race with Russia and France, miscalculating the fact that these were the two countries that could make Germany fight a two-front war. Moreover, Kaiser Wilhem chose Austria-Hungary as an ally instead of Russia, keeping the Dual Alliance but letting the Reinsurance Treaty to lapse. This was because in the Dual Alliance he had promised to protect Austria if it went to war with Russia and in the Reinsurance Treaty he had promised to maintain neutrality if Russia went to war with Austria. When these alliances were made public it was impossible for Germany to keep them both. Choosing Austria-Hungary over Russia could be said to be Kaiser Wilhem’s greatest diplomatic mistake, as it dragged Germany into war when Austria-Hungary decided to invade Serbia and also stimulated the creation of the Franco-Russian Alliance, where these countries promised to support one another in the event of a German attack. It made Germany’s main threat a reality. If a war were to happen, Germany would indeed have to fight a two-front war. What is more, Britain, Russia and France signed the Entente Cordiale in 1904, allying themselves together and confirming British intervention in a European war. Furthermore, Russia-British relations were strengthened in 1907 with the Anglo-Russian Entente. Moreover, Germany made another diplomatic mistake by provoking the Moroccan Crisis and putting pressure on France to test British friendship, which only increased German unpopularity and strengthened the Alliance System. Lloyd George’s speech emphasizes this point as he stated that Britain would fight if she or her allies were bullied in this way. Germany seemed to be making one diplomatic mistake after the other.
Moreover, when war could be seen in the horizon because of German support to Austria-Hungary’s invasion of Serbia, Germany was still not aware of the magnitude of the problem. It could be inferred that they did not realize that if the Schlieffen plan was followed and they invaded Belgium, then Britain would be forced to enter the war, honouring the Treaty of London. Germany could have failed to realize that an Austro-Serbian clash would not be a localised event but would also drag France, Britain and Russia into the conflict. In the long-term, it could be stated that it was Kaiser Wilhem’s series of mistakes that led to war. He failed to accurately predict foreign reaction to the aggressive policy of the Weltpolitik, and wrongly assumed that a “brief” war would help with Germany’s domestic difficulties.
In addition, Britain, France and Russia also made a series of diplomatic mistakes. First of all, they kept their Alliances a secret, creating suspicion from the countries who were not involved and who did not know what it meant to their own domestic safety which produced a mass hysteria. As well, Britain did not make clear what her intentions would be if a war were to begin. Germany did not know how far Britain would go and if she would end her “splendid isolation” in order to stop a war and solve European problems. Furthermore, the miscalculation all countries made was the seriousness of this war. They did not realize that the conflict would lead to monstrous repercussions such as the destruction of the basis of the European society.
In conclusion, it could be argued that although there was some premeditated action from Germany, Austria-Hungary and also from some of the Allied powers, the war developed or worsened due to diplomatic miscalculations. Germany’s aggressive policy is shown to have been a terrible mistake, as although Germany was keen to fight a war to ease domestic problems, it had not planned to fight a world war with massive consequences and destruction. What is more, the atmosphere of mistrust created by the Alliance system was one of the most serious mistakes, as it led to hostility and massive paranoia between the countries. The Great Powers feared they would lose credibility and status if they sought diplomatic compromises, and in the end their fear for war led them straight into one.
