- SWOT ANALYSIS
When considering the feasibility of HSBC’s reinvesting into the Argentine economy, it is essential to use a SWOT analysis and a TOWS matrix to determine what factors should influence their investment decisions. G3 Consultants Inc.’s analysis focuses on the external and internal strengths and weaknesses, and opportunities and threats that are present and could affect the company’s interests.
EXTERNAL STRENGTHS (Argentina)
- Release of the actual restrictions on withdrawing cash from banks (easing the financial strain in the banking system) (2003)
- Reduction of Inflation Rate
- Debt-restructuring agreement, by increasing its primary budget surplus to pay more debt and impose "structural reforms" to regain the trust of the world financial community. The debt restructuring process was long and complex. Argentina offered a steep discount on its obligations (approximately 70%) and finally settled the matter with over 76% of its defaulted creditors (the default did not include the IMF, which was continued to be paid on time).
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Closure of the Debt to IMF → liquidation by Argentine Government debt to the IMF in a single payment, without refinancing, for a total of $9.8 billion
- Economic Growth (since 2003, at a 9% rate)
INTERNAL STRENGTHS (HSBC – Argentina)
- Starting in 2003 the HSBC started making profits
- HSBC is a Multinational Company with Experience in Foreign Investment
- Qualified Entity for advisement on factors of International Business
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World’s 2nd largest Bank by profit
- More than 140 Years of international experience
- Trusted in the Global Market - 7th strongest bank in Argentina
- Primarily listed in the London and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges avoiding strict American SOX Laws (a plus for Foreign Investments i.e. Argentina)
EXTERNAL WEAKNESSES (Argentine)
- Politicians active role in monetary policies and consistent corruption
COUNTRY RANKING IN TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL’S CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX (10)
- Poor usage of the actual funds to pay off national debt
- Incredible depreciation of the peso to which the cause wasn’t the economic crisis or the overvaluation; it was the "pesification" of all the accounts.
INTERNAL WEAKNESSES (HSBC – Argentina)
- Loss of $1.1 Billion in 2001 due to the Economic Argentine Crisis
- Investors fear to invest in Argentine soil
- HSBC headquarters refused to infuse new capital in Argentine operations forcing HSBC Argentine to operate on funds generated in Argentina
- Lack of Brand Recognition
OPPORTUNITIES
- A Regulatory organism that acts as controller of monetary policies
- Expansion of exports to Global Markets and influx of dollars to Argentina
- Emerging economy of Argentina
- Favorable re-structuring monetary and economic policy by government
- Argentina's economic reform (spending cuts, and restructuring of Banking sector)
- Negative outlook of banking system by Argentinean citizens
THREATS
- Political involvement in economy deterring international trade and investment
- Restructuring of the national debt, resulting in further debt forgiveness and loss of revenue for HSBC
- Investor confidence regarding Argentina’s economic stability and possible threats to further purchase of exports, and direct foreign investment.
- TOWS MATRIX
The TOWS matrix identifies the most relevant factors from the SWOT analysis and cross-examines the effects in order to identify effective strategies for HSBC’s successful capital reinvestment in Argentina.
- STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
In order to respond to our clients needs to understand whether or not to re-invest in Argentina, we took into account the main factors investors give top priority to when assessing country conditions according to the Global Regulatory Network (GRN) which was created in October 2002 to encourage information exchange and local capacity building for international regulatory commissions. These factors are:
Favorable Legal Framework for Foreign Investors
The Foreign Investment Act, enacted in 1993 by Executive Order 1853/93, established the legal framework for foreign investment.
Main aspects of the Investment Legislation:
- Foreign investors have the same legal treatment as nationals under Argentine Constitution.
- Foreign companies may invest without prior approval or registration requirements.
- Foreign investors have the same access to incentive programs as local investors.
- Foreign companies have unrestricted access to all economic sectors.
- Foreign companies have the same access to credit as local companies.
- Foreign companies are free to transfer their capital and profits at any time, without any charges or taxes on such transfers.
Another important aspect to be mentioned is that Argentina has signed 53 Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) with several countries, in order to protect investments and avoid double taxation. Among them, we can mention: Austria, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Malaysia, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and USA.
Temporary contributions of foreign capital made pursuant to contacts for the prevision of goods, works, services, or other activities are not subject to this law. They are instead governed by the terms of the respective contracts in accordance with applicable laws, notwithstanding which the owners of such contributions may choose to have their investment governed by this law (4).
- Availability of credit enhancement or guarantee from Government and/or multilateral agency
- Agreements to provide reciprocal investment and avoid double taxation
The government of Argentina, in order to provide reciprocal investment and avoid double taxation, enforces bilateral investment treaties (BITs) with over 50 countries seeking foreign investments to advance its development process. Their protectionist investment efforts involve the adoption of bilateral treaties which promote stable and market-oriented policies towards foreign investment through:
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Non Discriminatory Treatment: Investment where each contracting party shall at all times be accorded fair and equitable treatment in the territory of the other contracting party.
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Transfer of Payments: Each contracting party guarantee to an investor of the other party the unrestricted transfer of investments and returns without limiting the generality of the foregoing, each contracting party also guarantee the unrestricted transfer of fund in repayment or loan directly related to a specific investment, the proceeds of the total or partial liquidation of any investment; wages and other remuneration accruing to a citizen of the other Contracting Party.
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Expropriation: BITs establish clear limits on the expropriation of investments and provide for payment of prompt, adequate and effective compensation when expropriation takes place.
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Disputes between the contracting parties: BITs give investors from both Parties the right to submit an investment dispute with the treaty partner's government to international arbitration. There is no requirement to use that country's domestic courts (4).
The agreements listed below have been signed by Argentina to promote and provide Reciprocal Investment Protection.
COUNTRY _ LAW _ DATE _ COUNTRY _ LAW _ DATE
Germany Law 24.098 10/06/1992 Italy Law 24.122 26/08/1992
Armenia Law 24.395 09/11/1994 Jamaica Law 24.549 13/09/1995
Australia Law 24.728 07/11/1992 Lithuania Law 24.984 03/06/1998
Austria Law 24.328 11/05/1994 Luxembourg Law 24.123 26/08/1992
Bolivia Law 24.458 08/02/1995 Malaysia Law 24.613 07/12/1995
Bulgaria Law 24.401 09/11/1994 Morocco Law 24.890 05/11/1997
Canada Law 24.125 26/08/1992 Mexico Law 24.972 20/05/1998
China Law 24.325 11/05/1994 Nicaragua Law 25.351 01/11/2000
Korea Law 24.682 14/08/1996 Netherlands Law 24.352 28/07/1994
Costa Rica Law 25.139 04/08/1999 Panama Law 24.971 20/05/1998
Croatia Law 24.563 20/09/1995 Peru Law 24.680 14/08/1996
Cuba Law 24.770 19/02/1997 Poland Law 24.101 10/06/1992
Denmark Law 24.397 09/11/1994 Portugal Law 24.593 15/11/1995
Ecuador Law 24.459 08/02/1995 United Kingdom Law 24.184 04/11/1992
Egypt Law 24.248 13/10/1993 Czech Rep. Law 24.983 03/06/1998
El Salvador Law 25.023 20/10/1998 Rumania Law 24.456 08/02/1995
Spain Law 24.118 05/08/1992 Senegal Law 24.396 09/11/1994
United States Law 24.124 26/08/1992 South Africa Law 25.352 01/11/2000
Russia Law 25.353 01/11/2000 Sweden Law 24.117 05/08/1992
Finland Law 24.614 07/12/1995 Switzerland Law 24.099 10/06/1992
France Law 24.100 10/06/1992 Tunes Law 24.394 09/11/1994
Guatemala Law 25.350 01/11/2000 Turkey Law 24.340 09/06/1994
Hungary Law 24.335 02/06/1994 Ukraine Law 24.681 14/08/1996
Indonesia Law 24.814 23/04/1997 Venezuela Law 24.457 08/02/1995
Israel Law 24.771 19/02/1997 Vietnam Law 24.778 14/04/1997
Treaties to Avoid Double Taxation
Argentina has signed the following agreements to avoid double taxation and to prevent fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income and capital gains with 17 countries, 15 of them are already in force. As a consequence of these treaties the effective income tax on dividends, royalties and interest are given below. In the same way, has signed agreements to avoid double taxation on international transport with 21 countries, 17 of which already are in force.
COUNTRY _ LAW _ DATE _ COUNTRY _ LAW _ DATE
Germany Law 22.025 25/11/79 Spain Law 24.258 27/07/94
Austria Law 22.589 18/01/83 Finland Law 24.654 05/12/96
Belgium Law 24.850 21/07/99 France Law 22.357 01/03/81
Bolivia Law 21.780 04/06/79 Italy Law 22.747 15/12/83
Brazil Law 22.675 07/12/82 Netherlands Law 24.933 11/02/98
Canada Law 24.398 30/12/94 United Kingdom Law 24.727 01/08/97
Chile Law 23.228 19/12/85 Sweden Law 24.795 10/05/97
Denmark Law 24.838 03/09/97
Legislative approval pending treaties:
Extensive Agreements: Norway, Switzerland and Australia.
Transport Treaties: Malaysia, Panama, Paraguay y Mexico.
Protocols: Germany and Italy.
Russia, Israel and Poland Agreements are been negotiating.
The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) promotes into by insuring against , advising governments on attracting investment, sharing information through on-line investment information services, and mediating disputes between investors and governments. As a member of the World Bank Group, this allows MIGA to intervene with host governments to resolve claims before they are filed which provides stronger security compared to private providers of political risk insurance (4).
- Tenure and Stability of Elected Officials in Political Process
Argentina’s has emerged from its 2001-2002 economic crisis which had caused severe stress on the political system. Due to the recovery, it is currently restructuring over $100 billion in defaulted bond debt. “Current President Néstor Kirchner, elected in 2003, has made bold policy moves in the areas of human rights, institutional reform, and economic policy that have helped restore Argentines’ faith in democracy. The October 2005 legislative elections demonstrated strong support for President Kirchner, whose popularity at this juncture bodes well for his re-election if he chooses to run in the October 2007 presidential election.” Economic growth has rebounded since 2003, yet the government faces such challenges as reducing poverty and controlling inflation while maintaining strong economic growth (8).
- High Economic Growth Potential
The end of 2001 and the beginning of 2002 brought an end to the Convertibility regime, due to the shutdown of business’ and banks. Stabilization of the Argentinean economic condition did not begin until the middle of 2002. As the domestic currency stabilized, inflationary pressures declined. This, combined with the expansion of the monetary base, permitted a gradual stabilization of interest rates. Economic recovery was fueled by rising domestic demand due to import substitution. In 2003, Argentina recorded its 8th consecutive quarter of growth, a first in 6 years. This ranked Argentina with the highest growth rate in Latin America and it is projected that Argentina will remain amongst the leaders in the years to come (4).
- Labor Indicators
A significant increase in jobs was an outcome of the recovery of the economic situation in Argentina. Between mid 2003 and 2004, about 2.1 million people entered the labor market. While these changes were taking place, the unemployment rate in Argentina was concurrently dropping at a shocking rate, decreasing by 29% (See chart below) (4).
1. Employment Rate: Employed / Total Population.
2. Unemployment Rate: Unemployed / Economically Active Population
- Investment Incentives
HSBC will benefit in their business deals with business loans for companies that can take advantage of the following investment incentives provided by the Argentine Investment Foundation (Fundacion Invertir):
- In - House Customs
The payment of exports and imports related tariffs and duties are done once the final goods are shipped either for domestic consumption or to be exported. To be eligible for this benefit a minimum yearly requirement of trade transactions and amount must be fulfilled.
- Simplified Importation System
Decree 161/99 and Resolution AFIP 503/99 establish an optional custom clearance method called the "Simplified Importation System". Companies wishing to carry out importation proceeding through this system must be registered in the Importers/ Exporters Records. As a requisite, the F.O.B value must not exceed the sum of US$3,000, and each importer must not exceed a maximum of four operations per month. Merchandise imported under this regulation must follow the following conditions:
- Must be new, unused, and not require reconditioning.
- Must not be prohibited imports, nor be subjected to quotas or intervention of other organisms.
- Must not be protected by any regulation that implies any type of exemption or tariff preferences
- Must be included in the Pre-shipment Inspection Regime.
As of March 8, 1999, merchandise imported under this simplified method pays a unified 50 percent import fee on the CIF value, which covers import duties and other taxes and rates of whatever nature (4).
- Temporary Admission Regime (TAR)
The Temporary Admission Regime (TAR) allows duty free admission for goods such as commercial samples, packaging, pallets, containers and odds for exhibits. Decree 1439/96 regulates the import of primary and intermediate goods into Argentina for use in export production, applying special procedures the imported goods must be substantially transformed or embodied in the production of goods for export. Merchandise may suffer changes, which increase or lower its value, but no export charges will be levied when goods remain unchanged. If value is increased, charges will apply on this added value.
- New initiatives
The Executive Branch has launched new mechanisms designed to promote investment:
- Accelerated depreciation for machinery, equipment, and infrastructure works destined for investment projects. Capital goods purchases may be depreciated in the balance sheets for the three years subsequent to purchase and infrastructure project depreciation will be reduced by 50% vis-à-vis the usual depreciation period.
- Refund of VAT paid on the purchase of goods destined for use in investment projects. All VAT not offset will be refunded in cash three months after purchase.
- A FRIENDLY ATTITUDE TOWARDS FOREIGNERS
Argentinean citizens have an extremely friendly attitude towards foreigners. This situation can be explained by the fact that Argentina was the second receiving country of the biggest migratory waves in the recent history (the end of the XIX Century and principles of XX Century) (4).
- STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES
G3 Consultants, Inc has defined the following factors discussed in the strategic analysis as the main determinants in creating the strategic alternatives for HSBC:
- A FAVORABLE LEGAL FRAMEWORK
- AGREEMENT TO PROVIDE RECIPROCAL INVESTMENTS AND AVOID DOUBLE TAXATION
- MEMBER OF MIGA
- POLITICS – TENURE & STABLITY OF ELECTED OFFICIALS
- HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH POTENTIAL
In view of the current situation, here are some alternatives to consider:
- Sell HSBC Argentina
- Discontent about the aftermath of the crisis, maintain current situation as is & keep working with local funds
- Sell inefficient branches and capitalize
- HSBC London headquarters to promote investment and capitalize its subsidiary in Argentina by investing in the acquisition of local banks at cheap prices resulting from the crisis
- RECOMMENDED COURSE OF ACTION
After a thorough evaluation of the strategic analysis and alternatives mentioned above, G3 Consultants, Inc. has identified the following recommended course of action for HSBC to take into account regarding their future investments in Argentina. G3 Consultants, Inc. considers that due to the favorable conditions that have surged after the crisis and after analyzing HSBC’s financial statements, the current political climate and the healthy attitude towards private investors, the best course of action is to reinvest in Argentina. We consider that the injection of new capital into HSBC Bank Argentina coupled with the acquisition of local banks would be beneficial in the mid-to-long term. According to a 2002 Bank Loan Report, the country now has functioning capital markets and a developed local stock and bond market. There is also a potential local demand for long term equity since the Argentine pension system has been privatized (2).
G3 Consultants, Inc. considers that there exist two major prospects for bank acquisitions: the Banco de Galicia and Banco de la Provincia de Buenos Aires which are both in a similar situation. These banks are nearing solvency and would be an economical and lucrative acquisition for HSBC Holdings. According to the 2002 Bank Loan Report, “Banco de Galicia Y Buenos Aires owe several hundred million dollars to a host of international banks in the forms of letters of credit, commercial papers, trade finance transactions and straight forward syndicated loans” (2). Banco de Galicia is one of the largest private banks in Argentina which offers personal and corporate lending, credit, debit and credit cards, residential mortgage loans, construction loans, fiduciary and custodial services and electronic banking. Additionally, Banco de la Provincia de Buenos Aires is the oldest bank in Hispano America; it is a publicly owned Argentine bank and is also the second largest by value of deposits.
HSBC Holdings is the 9th top bank with deposits of US$1 Billion, total assets of approximately US$2 Billion, a network of 57 branches and 2,608 employees. In 2003 and 2004, HSBC recorded profits of $48 and $156 million respectively revealing that the company is on an upward trend and the Argentine economy is turning profits. HSBC’s reinvestment into the Argentine economy and the acquisition of one of these two prospects would turn HSBC into one of the largest Argentine banks in terms of net worth and assets.
- CONCLUSION
Through our historical analysis of the political and economic factors leading up to the peso crisis, comprehensive SWOT and TOWS analyses and detailed market studies of HSBC’s growth potential, G3 Consultants, Inc. strongly recommends HSBC’s immediate reinvestment and expansion of their holdings in Argentina. Based on the country’s historic economic recovery trend, we consider that now is the time to invest- the acquisition of Banco de Galicia and Banco de la Provincia de Buenos Aires would be an economical and lucrative venture at a time when the Argentine government is implementing structural reforms to encourage direct foreign investment, getting ready to structure a new debt deal with the International Monetary Fund and adhering to tighter fiscal policy.
- UPDATE TO PRESENT
While HSBC Argentina executives were busy justifying to their headquarters being caught out by the crisis, two Argentinean medium size banks, Macro and Patagonia were planning their longer term Argentine strategy; these banks went through the horrors of a crisis in which bank accounts were frozen, and the 'pesofication' of dollar accounts, yet they immediately capitalized on the troubled situation of other banks and acquired what they could; they were able to turn a crisis into a profit. (9)
Since the economic crisis, although, HSBC held off, they later caught up and have been very lucrative since. In January 2006, they bought out Banco Nazionale de Lavoro's (BNL) an Argentine banking operations for $155M and on July 18, 2006, Co-merged Hexagon Bank Argentina S.A. into its operations. (6)
Stats and Facts:
“In 2001, foreign banks held 53% of all deposits and private sector Argentine banks held 15%. In 2006, the foreign bank share fell to 28% and Argentine private sector banks nearly doubled their share to 27%, according to the central bank.” (9)
“Standard & Poor's (S&P) expects credit to continue growing strongly, however they see two major challenges for the banking system: to increase the level of intermediation in the sector and to extend loan maturities. It sounds a note of caution about the sector in a report, though: The maintenance of healthy and predictable policies in the fields of economics, legal and regulation continues to be the principal determinant in the development of a healthy banking system." (9)
“The government could increase the level of intermediation if it dispensed with the financial transactions tax. There is a 0.6% tax on money deposited in an account and another 0.6% on money withdrawn. This could result in more of the black economy - which has been estimated to be anything up to 40% of GDP - becoming formalized and would boost the financial sector.”
Due to elections, for a government with an inefficient tax collection office, bankers do not expect this to happen since the financial transactions tax accounted for a significant part of the tax take in 2006. (9)
The evidence that HSBC is benefiting from the recovery is shown by the pre-tax profits of $157M which was reported in 2006. “Foreign banks are far from standing still, but when it comes to taking advantage of the bad times, local banks with local shareholders are winning the race.” (9)
THE PRESENT:
MARKET SHARE
The following facts and statistics are taken from HSBC published financial records. The table shows the participation of the Bank among the main private Banks in terms of Loans and Deposits to the Private Sector up to May of 2008 (last available official data) (7).
CREDIT CARDS
The acquisition of the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro allowed HSBC to become one of the main issuers of credit cards in the Argentine market and the main issuer of Mastercard in the country measured in number of cardholders. The bad debt accounts receivable indicators are maintained at low levels.
Corporate Banking
The Bank continues to be one of the main operators in foreign trade, mainly issuing commercial letters of credit for imports and collections of export where the corporate segment has an important participation of the business.
The Corporate and Treasury depts. of the Bank have continued concentrating on the search for business foreign exchange, derivatives and futures, which have permitted them to maintain a leadership position in the market, especially between the exporters of grains and oils.
Transaction Banking
In transactional banking, HSBC Bank Argentina INC. also maintained first position in the local network of Electronic Banking Datanet, which is measured by the volume of transactions channeled through the network where they hold 26% of the transactions. Additionally the sector continued growing in the capture of new clients in the PC Banking Businesses, which was developed for Businesses clients some years ago by the Bank and in which already holds 478 large businesses.
Commercial Banking
In the segment of small and medium businesses growth was maintained, having increased the penetration in the product Commerce / accreditation of coupons from 10% to the 17%, through improvements in the sales model and expediting the operating process.
In Commercial Banking they continued improvements in the quality of the services including electronic banking, telephone banking and foreign trade, which was verified by the increased number of clients.
International Trade
According to the foreign exchange statistics published by the Central Bank of the Republic Argentina for the second quarter of 2008, foreign trade of HSBC is ranks first place on exports and second place on imports with a participation of 15,9% and 13,4% respectively.
Investment Banking
During the second quarter of 2008, the sector of trusts and structured finances has completed three transactions for a total of approximately $268 million pesos in the following roles: as the Organizer, Underwriter, Placer and Fiduciary for the Octava Serie del Fideicomiso Financiero CGM Leasing by $24 million; as Organizer and Placer for the Quinta Serie del Fideicomiso Financiero de Compañía Financiera Argentina (CFA) by $170 million and Placer for the Cuarta Serie del Fideicomiso Financiero Best Consumer Finance by $68 million.
PERSPECTIVE
- The Bank, as member of the HSBC group, has a strong position in the local market- forming the most complete group of integrated financial services in the country. The HSBC group in Argentina, continues as provider of the most diverse products, which includes not only a large range of bank services, but also of insurances and administration of pension and investment funds.
- The acquisition of BNL allowed HSBC to duplicate its clients and almost triple its network of HSBC branches allowing HSBC to become one of the leaders in the banking market.
- The Bank proposes to continue with its leadership position in Commercial Banking. They will also continue to assist with credit development, trade commerce and transactional banking.
- The segment of Agricultural Banking will continue to function headed by its group of specialists. This is in response to the needs of its clients by means of products adapted to the peculiarities of this business.
- The area of Foreign Trade will keep on accompanying the companies that develop its international business, offering a wide range of pre and post financing of exports, opening of credit letters of imports and post financing of imports across its Specialists' unit of Foreign Trade and Divisions Network.
- In Global Banking, the challenges will be principally to consolidate HSBC’s leadership position on the corporate market, to increase clients' base, to increase the selling of products and services of the same, to be present at the needs of clients’ financing.
All these actions are carried out while the Bank supports its firm position of liquidity and conservative politics while also keeping in mind credit and market risk.
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