The next significant advancement towards the objective goal of modern forms of risk and probability came with the birth of Christianity and its rapid growth across the western world. Christianity began to serve as ‘the belief system by which threats and dangers were dealt with conceptually and behaviourally, allowing people to feel as if they have some sense of control over their world’ (Lupton, 1999:2). Also with the onset of Christianity, Covello and Mumpower illustrate that the early religious ideas about the probability of an afterlife was ‘an important thread leading to modern quantitative risk analysis’ (no date:520). They make reference to Arnobius who lived in the fourth century A.D. He was a major figure in a Pagan church and led a decadent life compared with the competing fledgling Christian church members. After a revelatory vision, Arnobius attempted to convert to Christianity but the bishop of the Christian church was suspicious and doubted the sincerity of his conversion. To demonstrate his authenticity, Arnobius’ wrote a monograph, Against the Pagans, which included an argument for Christianity that is particularly relevant to the history of probabilistic risk analysis:
‘Arnobius proposed a 2 x 2 matrix. There are, he argued, two alternatives: (1) “accept Christianity” and (2) “remain a pagan.” There are also, he argued, two possible, but uncertain states of affairs: (1) “God exists” and (2) “God does not exist.” If God does not exist, there is no difference between the two alternatives. (With the minor exception that Christians may unnecessarily forgo some of the pleasures of the flesh enjoyed by pagans.) If God exists, however, being a Christian is far better for one’s soul than being a pagan.’
(Covello and Mumpower, no date:521)
Throughout the progression of early forms of Christianity, travel, trade and exploration were intensifying with ardency in the search for a better life on earth, meaning that Christians were meeting new peoples and encountering new ideas. With the Crusades – ‘a seismic culture shock’ (Bernstein, 1998:19) of the collision of westerners with an Arab empire – propelled developments further as a result of the combination of the Christians’ faith in the future and the Arabs’ knowledge of the Hindu numbering system that had been developing parallel to that of the Greeks.
For Bernstein, ‘the story of numbers begins in 1202’ (1998:23) when Fibonacci, following and encounter with an Arab mathematician astute in the Hindu-Arabic numbering system, was inspired to write of their benefits in his book Liber Abaci. This book drew attention to the revolutionary way in which numbers could be substituted for the Hebrew, Greek and Roman systems there were currently in place that used letter for counting and calculating. It exhibited a high level of sophistication featuring ‘calculations using whole numbers and fractions, rules of proportion, extraction of square roots and roots of higher orders, and even solutions for linear and quadratic equations’ (1998:24). A fundamental benefit of the Hindu-Arabic numbering system was the invention of zero. According to Bernstein this revolutionised the old numbering system in two ways:
‘First, it meant that people could use only ten digits, from zero to nine, to perform every conceivable calculation and to write any conceivable number. Second, it meant that a sequence of numbers like 1, 10, 100 would indicate that the next number in the sequence would be 1000. Zero makes the whole structure of the numbering system immediately visible and clear.’
(Bernstein, 1998:33)
Furthermore, of particular advancement was the method of practical application that Fibonacci used. Bernstein provides the example that:
‘he described and illustrated many innovations that the new numbers made possible in commercial bookkeeping, such as figuring profit margins, money-changing, conversions of weights and measures, and – though usury was still prohibited in many places – he even included calculations of interest payments.’
(Bernstein 1998:25)
This use of the new numbering system in conjunction with practical application was the first step towards making measurement ‘the key factor in the taming of risk. But society was not yet prepared to attach numbers to risk’ (1998:28).
The next significant development in this respect came with the early Renaissance period which was to become a momentous time of discovery in both art and science, originating in Italy. With the publication of a book entitled Summa de arithmetic, geometria et proportionalita by the Franciscan monk Luca Paccioli, came the most extensive discussion of double-entry bookkeeping to date. Furthermore, his inclusion of a puzzle with the underlying core question ‘how do we divide the stakes in an uncompleted game’ prompted heated debates, and the resolution ‘marked the beginning of a systematic analysis of probability – the measure of our confidence that something is going to happen. It brings us to the threshold of the quantification of risk’ (Bernstein, 1998:43).
The early Renaissance period was marked with developments with regard to risk and probability and another significant transpiration came with the work of Cardano, a sixteenth century physician, entitled Liber de Ludo Aleae. Herein he defined, ‘for the first time, what is now the conventional format for expressing probability as a fraction: the number of favourable outcomes divided by the “circuit” – that is, the total number of possible outcomes’ (Bernstein, 1998:50). According to Bernstein this book was the first known attempt to ‘put measurement at the service of risk’ and that it was ‘through this process… that risk management evolved’ (1998:54).
With the maturity of the Renaissance and the dawn of modernity that it brought about, the interdependent systems of capitalism and industrialism propelled notions of risk and probability forward.
‘But capitalism could not have flourished without two new activities that had been unnecessary so long as the future was a matter of chance or of God’s will. The first was bookkeeping, a humble activity but one that encouraged the dissemination of the new techniques of numbering and counting. The other was forecasting, a much less humble and far more challenging activity that links risk-taking with direct payoffs’.
(Bernstein 1998:21)
From the seventeenth century the final stage of the Enlightenment period encompassed a strive to find the key to human progress and order, expressed by Lupton as ‘objective knowledge of the world through scientific exploration and rational thinking’ (1999:6). Interest in the subject of risk and probability spread through France and onto Switzerland, Germany and England, and the eighteenth century was characterised by advances in calculus and algebra which ‘led to increasingly abstract concepts that provided the foundation for many practical applications of probability’ (Bernstein 1998:55), predominantly those of insurance and investment.
Prior to this juncture it is difficult to understand why the concept of risk and the strengthening notion of probability were not incorporated into society. After all the above evidence proves that all the essential components were in play, albeit in a primitive form. Bernstein attempts to retort through his explanation that societies preceding the Renaissance perceived the future as:
‘little more than a matter of luck or the result of random variations, and most of their decisions were driven by instinct. When the conditions of life are so closely linked to nature, not much is left to human control’
(Bernstein, 1998:18).
Lupton also maintains that although the notion of risk ‘first appeared in the Middle Ages, related to maritime insurance’, it did not yet resemble any form that we recognise today in that it ‘excluded the idea of human fault and responsibility’ (Lupton, 1999:5).
More specifically it is argued that each breakthrough, no matter how seemingly minor, played a vital part in the development of probability theory and risk management, without which it would never have been possible. The Arabs for example were unable to advance due to their belief in the determining forces of the Gods over our future, despite their already advanced mathematical ideas. For Covello and Mumpower, the rapid development of probability theory in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries could
‘be traced to the rise of capitalism and to the desire of the new mercantile class for improved methods of business calculation and for greater economic security in the form of insurance’.
(Covello and Mumpower, no date:522)
Furthermore they argue that the conditions leading to the emergence of a mathematical theory of probability were dependent on a combination of the Marxist theories concerning changes in the economic means of production as well as Merton’s theory concerning ‘the link between religion, the Protestant reformation, and scientific developments; and to relatively recent theories which link the emergence of modern science to a complex chain of scientific, technological, political, economic, religious, institutional and ideological changes’ (no date:522).
Today, notions of risk and probability are complex and incorporate the concepts of risk analysis and management. Lupton illustrates Castel’s view that ‘the obsession with the prevention of risk in modernity is built upon “a grandiose technocratic rationalizing dream of absolute control of the accidental, understood as the irruption of the unpredictable”’ (Castel cited in Lupton, 1999:7). She infers that modern representations of risk are in fact very similar to early forms although today ‘we fear being the victim of a crime, falling prey to cancer, being in a car accident, losing our jobs, having our marriage break down or our children fail at school’ (1999:3) rather than pre-modern concerns of hunger, epidemic disease and war.
For Covello and Mumpower, ‘modern risk analysis has its twin roots in mathematical theories of probability and in scientific methods for identifying causal links between adverse health effects and different types of hazardous activities’ (no date:523). However, what makes it unique to modern day is its sophistication. They depict that most current ideas about societal risk management are rooted in four basic strategies or mechanisms of control: insurance, common law, government intervention and private sector self-regulation.
Beck conveys how modern risks have acquired a fluidity in that they can be ‘changed, magnified, dramatized or minimized within knowledge, and to that extent they are particularly open to social definition and construction’ (Beck cited in Adams, 1995:181).
From the above exploration of events, set in chronological order, it is clear that the emergence of notions of risk and probability cannot be restricted to one particular form or any one period of time. The process was slow and spanned out over thousands of years before reaching the level of sophistication and complexity that we are familiar with today. This essay has attempted to show that the story of risk, in its crudest form, began as early as the human race itself, in the form of the ideology that all life is subject to the risk of death. With this as a starting point, a number of ancient societies, cultures, and individuals, each in very specific ways, propelled the development of risk and probability forward. It is also argued that it was a complex combination of changing cultural beliefs and mathematical experimentation and mastery that, together, allowed risk and probability theory to begin to mushroom during the later part of the Renaissance movement.
Firstly, the ancient societies that settled in the Tigris-Euphrates valley were aware of the significance of risk in the context of their expanding appetite and capability for trade and travel. They were yet unaware however of any mathematical notions of probability and cultural belief led them instead to look to signs of the Gods to determine the future. Later, within the realm of ancient Greece, probability theory began to be developed subsequent to the Greeks’ love of gambling. At this stage however, the limitations of the Greek numbering systems seemed to hinder any further development. Probability theory was not yet being expressed quantitatively and any knowledge of probability theory still failed to be applied to notions of risk, which were still attributed to the supernatural and the will of the gods.
This ideology only began to dissipate with the increasing popularity of Christianity which allowed people to feel as if they have some sense of control over their world. The subsequent collision of the Christians with an Arab group brought about the combination of the Christians’ faith in the future and the Arabs’ knowledge of the Hindu numbering system that had been developing parallel to that of the Greeks. This was a fundamental breakthrough. Yet it was not until the Renaissance, and the development of applied quantitative probability in risk through the form of business processes such as commercial bookkeeping, that risk and probability theory was able to flourish.
Throughout history then it is clear to see that trade, travel and insurance have played a large part in the development of theories of risk and probability. Although their discovery cannot be traced to a particular form, it is the juncture at which mathematical ability, cultural belief and economic drive meet, during the Renaissance, that modern notions of risk and probability begin.
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Bibliography
Adams, John (1995) Risk. London: UCL Press Limited
Beck, Ulrich (1999) World Risk Society. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Beck, Ulrich (1992) Risk Society cited in Adams, John (1995) Risk. London: UCL Press Limited
Bernstein, Peter. L. (1998) Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk. Chichester: Jon Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Castel, R (1991) From Dangerousness to Risk cited in Lupton, Deborah (1999) Risk. London Routledge
Covello, Vincent and Mumpower, Jeryl (no date) Risk Analysis and Risk Management: A Historical Perspective in Covello Menkes and Mumpower Risk Evaluation and Management. New York: Plenum Press
Lupton, Deborah (1999) Risk. London Routledge