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How relevant is the Demographic Transition Model?

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How relevant is the Demographic Transition Model? On first looking at the Demographic Transition Model, it seems very appropriate. It is very similar to the models of the European countries and most countries are currently somewhere within the model and its four stages. On closer studying, it is evident that the model has many flaws and the countries currently placed in stages one and two might not follow the trends into stages three and four. When the model was created, it was based mainly on MEDCs such as the European countries and the USA. Many of these countries closely follow the model, but are now progressing further into a newly created fifth stage, which shows a natural decrease in population. This was not predicted when the model was created, which shows a lack of anticipation and planning! ...read more.


But nowadays, there is no evidence to suggest that the LEDCs are going to develop rapidly. Even if the IMF grants the LEDCs large sums of money, it is likely that corrupt governments in many LEDCs would pocket the money, rather than investing it into the country to improve its infrastructure. The model does not take into account many factors. It does not take into account the possibilities of an outbreak of viruses and epidemics, such as the AIDS problems that Africa is currently facing. This would result in the death rates soaring above the birth rates and a natural population decrease. It also does not consider wars that could break out and result in a drop in the death rate, whether prematurely for LEDCs or the rates dropping too low for MEDCs. ...read more.


Singapore's government, like the governments of many other LEDCs is worried about the decrease in birth rates. In many LEDCs, the younger population is decreasing and they have an ageing population. In the future, they might not have the manpower needed top run the country and are so, encouraging families to have more babies. This could result in geographers adding a sixth stage to the DTM, where birth rates rise and therefore, the country has a low death rate and a medium birth rate. This, though good for the individual country and its economy, has major implications on the world population. It would mean that there would be a population increase in both LEDCs and MEDCs and would result in a world population surge. This is bad for the world, where many places are already becoming overcrowded and polluted. Aswin Chari 10.1 / EJT ...read more.

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