The atomic bomb was successfully tested on June 16th, and presented Truman an alternative to the invasion. Already in June 1st the Interim Committee had recommended Truman to use the bomb, 5 days after the testing, Truman finally gave consensus, and on August 6th 1945 the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima. Approximately 80,000 people died immediately, with another 70,000 injured. On August 8th the Red Army invaded Manchuria as agreed in Potsdam, outnumbering Japanese troops by two to one, nevertheless the Soviets suffered over 24,000 casualties, and 12,000 deaths. On August 9th the second bomb was dropped on Nagasaki, yet till August 10th the Japanese still only offered coalition surrender. Finally the Emperor intervened and made a sacred decision for surrender on August 14th, which overrode the opinions of the disagreeing cabinet.
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Evaluation of Sources (Word Count:415)
“Hiroshima in History” is a collection of essays by prominent military and diplomatic historians which addresses the controversy over the use of the atomic bomb against Japan, specifically aiming to expose the fallacy of “Hiroshima revisionism.” Richard B. Frank describes this book as deserving “enormous merit” and being “a key milestone” in shaping “where the controversy has been, and where it is going.” Editor Robert James Maddox is Professor Emeritus of History at Pennsylvania State University, and the author of numerous landmark books on this subject. The contributing authors are prestigious figures in their relevant subjects. Their various backgrounds enable the book to tackle the topic through different perspectives, and create a holistic picture of the topic. However the book focuses on debunking revisionism hence is could be limited that it only provides information that supports their thesis. Nevertheless it was published in 2007, after the intercepted information of the MAGIC was completely publicized in 1995, whereas the leading revisionists most often base their arguments on the partially unscreened MAGIC.
“Memoir: Years of Decision” written by Harry S Truman, published in 1955, provides a first hand source that demonstrates the context of which Truman was in, as well as his personal stance on American foreign policy. Truman’s self-claimed purpose is that he hopes to assist those who seek the truth of history through documenting the circumstances, thoughts and feelings he experienced during his presidency; he specifically states that he has tried to refrain from retrospect and seeks to present his opinions then. Yet despite what Truman claims, the book is published as a memoir and may try to justify his decisions through presenting only half of the picture. For example during the Potsdam conference Truman ‘mentions’ to Stalin the development of A-bomb, Truman recaptures this scenario in 3 sentences and fails to communicate the surprise and his idea that Stalin did not understand the capacity of the bomb. However this problem maybe partially attributed to the limited pages that Truman has devoted to the decision to drop the bomb, and also to protect the reputation of others. Nevertheless the book has incorporated numerous primary sources such as telegrams, letters, and memoranda as a basis of his argument, making it easy to trace back his claims. However a serious drawback is that the version I have obtained has been translated into Chinese, which eliminates the nuances in the English language and may not communicate the subtleties of Truman’s language.
Analysis (Word Count:693)
The issue of whether Truman saved 500,000 lives is less over numbers than about proportionality- “…at what stage does the number of casualties affect your goal, at what point do you say it’s too much and not worth it anymore?” asks former US Defense Sec. Robert McNamara. Presently 912 lives lost in Afghanistan are causing national angst for a country that accepted 1,116,000 casualties in WWII. This answer to this question shall give meaning to the deaths of the deaths of the atomic bombing victims. Ironically even to this day, U.S. has been awarding purple hearts to wounded soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan; manufactured 60 years ago in anticipation of the casualties resulting from the invasion of Japan.
The number 500,000 casualties originate from Truman’s memoir citing General Marshall. However as Lieutenant General John Hull reflects “There were all kinds of estimates as to the cost of it in manpower... The casualty estimates ran everything from a few hundred thousand to a million men…” At the Joint Chief Staff meeting with Truman on June 18th, Adm. King estimated 41,000 for the first 30 days of Olympic, whereas Adm. Nimitz concluded 49,000, similar to MacArthur’s staff’s estimate of 50,000 casualties. In short, the casualty estimates for Downfall ranged from 220,000 to 500,000 during the meeting . However the July ULTRA interception made a mockery of the lower estimates. As Drea aptly puts “Japanese reinforcements seemed to blossom with the warm May weather in Kyushu.” The casualty estimates had to be continually “revised up” as they approached the invasion date.
In Stimson’s memo to the president on July 2nd, he argued that an invasion into Japan would result in “an even bitter finish fight than Germany”, implying over a million casualties. Stimson had been a colonel of artillery during WWI, his point would have not been taken lightly by Truman, and furthermore he was backed by nobel prize winner William Shockley with an estimation of 1,700,000 to 4,000,000 casualties. In addition Hoover’s memorandum submitted upon Truman’s request, claims that an invasion would cost 500,000 to 100,000,000 American lives. Even Churchill suggested that the bomb could save 1,200,000 lives, among which 1 million American lives. However Churchill was motivated to convince the U.S to defeat Japan and had the tendency to exaggerate his numbers. General Groves even regarded his number “a little high” and suggested slightly under a million.
Yet these high casualty estimates were not limited to the military planners, predictions from the press were equally high. On July 2nd, News Republic claimed that it would cause 500,000 American casualties. Life magazine went to the extent of referring to one million. Similar figures were given by Kyle Palmer from Los Angelus Times as well as the magazine Catholic World. More over, if one considers it from a mathematical standpoint, Okinawa cost 155 soldiers/10sqr miles, applying only 38% of this rate, an invasion of Japan’s mainland would cause 507,280 casualties.
Nonetheless revisionist historians have challenged Truman’s number, most dominantly Barton J. Bernstein. Basing his argument heavily on MacArthur staff’s 2 time estimation of around 100,000 casualties for the opening months of Olympic, contrasting favorably yet erroneously with Truman's casualty estimate of operation Downfall. In particular Bernstein argues “Truman’s own postwar claims, oscillated so widely that no responsible analyst should trust any particular recollection on this subject.” He further states that casualties for operation downfall would cost a mere 20,000 to 46,000. However his justification of this number is fundamentally wrong, post revisionist historian Michael Kort points out that Bernstein has used the term battle casualty and casualty rate interchangeably, suggesting that the non battle casualties account for only a small proportion of the casualty count, whereas in reality non battle casualties of WWII amounted to 28% of total force battle casualties. Yet more importantly Bernstein fails to mention that this figure was never shown to Truman, as it was removed for the reason of “not subject to accurate estimate.”Finally even the Japanese IGHQ staff officer confidently stated in July 1945 that they could inflict 1 million American casualties upon landing.
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Conclusion (Word Count:145)
Chinese philosopher嘉威 argues “One can never truly foresee the ‘what ifs’ of history.” Indeed we can never be sure whether the decision to drop the atomic bomb saved 500,000 American lives. However after carefully considering the suicidal Japanese military and civilian forces, weighing the different casualty estimates and examining revisionist and post revisionist views, it is most certain that Truman’s claim in saving 500,000 lives is realistic. Hiroshima in History’s multiple author view has proven very rewarding, when examining the views of Bernstein one can see numerous authors opinion on his work. Furthermore, the numerous perspectives present different approaches on examining the validity of Truman’s number, e.g. Moor investigates the number through the manufacturing of Purple Hearts. Nevertheless Truman’s memoir was rewarding too, as it provided a first hand but sometimes too brief documentary of his thinking during the time of the decision.
- Bibliography
Books:
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Bourke, Joanna. The Second World War. 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: Oxford University Press, 2003. Print.
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Bradley, F. No Strategic Targets Left. Ltd ed. 1 vol. USA: Turner Publishing Company, 1999. Print.
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Chalmers, Johnson. The Sorrows of Empire:Militarism, Secrecy, and the End of the Republic (The American Empire Project). 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: Owl Books, 2005. Print.
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Chappelle, John. Before the Bomb: How America Approached the End of the Pacific War. 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: The University Press of Kentucky, 1997. Print.
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Chun, Clayton, and John White. Japan 1945: From Operation Downfall to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 1st ed. 1vol. USA: Osprey Publishing, 2008. Print.
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Costello, John. The Pacific War. 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: Harper Perennial, 1982. Print.
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Drea, Edward. Macarthur's Ultra: Codebreaking and the War Against Japan, 1942-1945. 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: University Press of Kansas, 1992. Print.
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Frank, Richard. Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire . 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: Penguin (Non-Classics), 2001. Print.
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Maddox, Robert, Asada Sadao, Drea Edward, Giangreco D, Gentile Gian, Newman Robert, Kort Michael and Moor Kathryn. Hiroshima in History: the Myths of Revisionism. 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: University of Missouri Press, 2007. Print.
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Štanský, Peter. Churchill: A Profile. 1st ed. 1 vol. USA: Hill and Wang, 1973. Print.
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Truman, Harry. 杜鲁门回忆录（Memoir: Years of Decision）. Chinese ed. 1 vol. China: 东方出版社, 2007. Print.
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Weintraub, Stanley. The Last Great Victory. 2nd ed. 1 vol. USA: Konecky & Konecky, 2001. Print.
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嘉, 威. 从孔子到原子：历史思想随笔（From Confucious to the Atomic: Random Thoughts on History Philosophy). 2nd ed. 2 vol. China: 人民教育出版社, 2003. Print.
Magazine/Journal Articles
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"At Last some Japs are Giving Up but Bloody War Still Lies Ahead." Newsweek 2 Jul. 1945, Print.
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Bernstein, Barton. "A Postwar Myth: 500,000 U.S Lives Saved." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist 42.6 (1986): 38-40. Web. 28 Mar 2010.
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Bernstein, Barton. “Reconsidering "Invasion Most Costly": Popular-History Scholarship, Publishing Standards, and the Claim of High U.S. Casualty Estimates to Help Legitimize the Atomic Bombings." Peace and Change 17 Dec 1999: 220-248. Web. 5 Apr 2010.
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Frank, Richard. "Light in August: History Lessons for Atomic Revisionists." Weekly Standard 20 Aug. 2007: 57. Web. 28 Mar 2010.
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Frank, Richard."Why Truman Dropped the Bomb."." Weekly Standard 10.44 (2005): Web. 5 Apr 2010.
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Heresy, John. "Kamikaze." Life Magazine 30 Jul. 1945: 75. Print.
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"Japan- An Opportunity for Statesmanship." Life Magazine 16 Jul. 1945: Web. 5 Apr 2010.
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Kort, Michael. "Casualty Projections for the Invasion of Japan, Phantom Estimates, And The Math Of Barton Bernstein" Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations: Needles in the Haystacks (2003): Web. 5 Apr 2010.
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Stimson, Henry. "The Decision to Use the Bomb." Harper's Magazine Feb. 1947: Print.
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“Why prolong the war against Japan?”." Catholic World August 1945: Print.
Documentary/Movie:
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Morris, Errol, Dir. Fog of War. Sony Picture Classics: 2004, DVD.
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Kurahara, Koreyoshi, and Spottiswoode, Roger Dir. Hiroshima. Echo Bridge Home Entertainment: 1995, DVD.
Interview:
- Personal Interview with Doug Long
Truman’s Personal Documents:
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Harry S. Truman Library & Museum. U. S. Strategic Bombing Survey: The Effects of the Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, June 19, 1946. President's Secretary's File, Truman Papers. Effort and Results., page 42 of 51. Retrieved on February 11, 2010.
Web Documents:
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"U.S. Fatalities in and around Afghanistan." iCasualties.org: Operation Enduring Freedom. icasualties, 01 apr. 2010. Web. 5 Apr 2010.
- Appendix
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Memorandum of the June 18th JCS meeting
- Source: (Giangreco 103)
- Planned Operation Olympic invasion sites on Kyushu:
- Source: (Chun 35)
- Planned Operation Coronet invasion sites on Honshu:
- Source: (Chun 38)
The Industry was going to collapse, since august 1st 1941 since 90% oil came from imports and 80% from the America’s. Whereas since August 1st 1941 the US, Britain, and East Indies had embargoed all necessary staples (oil, steel…) for war. (Costello 168)
Even one of the few peace feelers, Prime Minister Suzuki publicly spoke of “fighting to the end, the entire population uniting as one body.”(Drea, Hiroshima 73)
In Heresy’s words “The Japanese have done something no other nation in the world would be capable of doing. They have systematized suicide; they have nationalized a morbid, sickly act.” (Heresy 75)
This number will continue to grow until August 10th. (Drea 66)
Harry S. Truman Library & Museum. U. S. Strategic Bombing Survey: The Effects of the Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, June 19, 1946. President's Secretary's File, Truman Papers. Effort and Results., page 42 of 51. Retrieved on February 11, 2010.
Most notably “Weapons for Victory: The Hiroshima Decision Fifty Years Later”
There subjects include American and Japanese history, the Pacific War, the atomic project, and biographical sketches of American and Japanese leaders.
The leading revisionists are P.M. Blackett, Gar Alperovitz, and Barton J. Bernstein.
e.g. when Truman claims the atomic bomb as the “greatest thing in history” the Chinese version translates it into “历史上最重大的事情” which completely eliminates the positive nuance in the word, making it a neutral word meaning the most important thing in history. (Truman 387)
"U.S. Fatalities in and around Afghanistan." iCasualties.org: Operation Enduring Freedom. icasualties, 01 apr. 2010. Web. 5 Apr 2010.
‘Minutes of Meeting held at the White House on Monday, 18 June 1945 at 1530’ cited in (Giangreco 87)
‘Memorandum on Ending the Japanese War’ cited in (Giangreco 112)
(“Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” 38)
(“Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” 38)
Total area of main land Japan (Honshu) is 88996.55square miles, multiplied by the casualty rate of 150 casualties/10 sqr miles, the result is 1334948 casualties.
(“Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” 38)
He uses Luzon as an example
(“Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations” 57)
