Estimating the length of a line and the size of an angle.

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Introduction

This coursework is about estimating the length of a line and the size of an angle. The purpose of this is so that I could see which year group is better at estimating year 10 or year 11. The factors, which may influence people’s estimations are the following, firstly age. Year 11 students are one year older than year ten students so it is likely that year 11 students will know more about estimation than year 10. Secondly skills may effect people’s estimation because some people may have weak numerical skills while others may have good numerical skills. Thirdly the strategy of estimating can affect pupil’s estimation because different strategies of estimating can influence different estimations. Furthermore experience can affect people’s estimation because some people may already have done work on estimation and know a bit about it while others may have not. Plus education can affect people’s answers because some people may have started education at an earlier age than others so they will have more knowledge than the people who started education late so it can affect people’s estimations. Knowledge can cause variation in answers because some people may have more knowledge than others so they will no more and will able to estimate better than the others. In addition background can cause variation of peoples estimations because some people may have come from LEDC countries where education may be at low standards and their parents were not thought as well as the other pupils parents who lived in MEDC countries. So the genes the parents may have past on can affect the rate at which a child may learn so as a result some people will have a better and a closer estimation than others. Also if the person takes medication then he or she may be feeling drowsy and so they may not give the estimations accurately as they can do which can effect the results. Others may have had a bad day and got a head ache and cannot think properly or some may have eye problems (etc.) so they may not guess the length and angle in the way in which they could.

Aim

The thing that interests me the most about the coursework is to see which year is more accurate at estimating. As year 11 is generally older than year 10 and have more experience. Do theses factors really affect their ability to estimate. This is interesting to me because small factors such as these can be the cause of their estimations.

This coursework is about guestimating. The purpose of this is so that I could see which year group is better at estimating. Which could tell me something about the different year groups and how intelligent they are. If I carry this investigation even further as I am going to estimate the size of an angle as well. I could compare the estimations of each year group, which it could help improve the year group that is not very good at estimating in maths.

My aims of this coursework are as followed.

1) Firstly to find out which year group, year 10 or year 11 is better at estimating?

2) Secondly to find out if it is true that the people who estimate the length of a line accurately estimate the size of an angle accurately?

3) My third aim to find out if it is true that estimating the length of a line is easier than estimating the size of an angle?

4) Fourthly my aim is to find out whether girls are better than boys at estimating the length of the line and size of an angle?

Hypothesis

Hypothesis is a prediction, which you think will happen supported by good reasons, why you think it will happen. Which you then compare to your actual conclusion to see if your prediction was correct which as a result shows your ability of predicting.

My prediction for my first aim is that year 11 students are better than year 10 students at estimating. This is because year 11 students have generally one year more knowledge and experience than year 10 students so their estimations will be more accurate than year ten’s.

For my second aim my hypothesis is that people who estimate the length of a line accurately may not estimate the size of an angle accurately. This is because estimating a length of a line is easier than estimating the size of an angle which can be difficult.

My prediction of my third aim is that estimating the length of a line is easier than estimating the size of an angle. This is because the length of a line can be estimated accurately because most people use rulers frequently to measure fundamental things and so they will be better at estimating the length of a line than estimating the size of an angle which are used less frequently and is very difficult because the angles can be tricky at times.

My hypothesis of my fourth aim is that I think girls and boys estimations will be about the same so one will not be better than the other. I think this because in each year group girls and boys will be about the same age and will have started education approximately at the same time so both will have about an equal chance of accurate estimations. I would say it depends on how much does each person know and how much have they worked and if any factors may affect their estimation will finalise the accuracy of the results not if they are a girl they will be better at estimating than a boy.

Sampling

In my sample frame I have two populations these are year 10 and year 11. In year 10 there are 246 students which 74 students are females and 172 students are males. While in year 11 there are 287 students which 82 students are females and 205 students are males. From a total population of 451 students a sample about 10% of the total population is considered large enough to represent the whole population, which is about 30 students from each year. This makes a total sample of 60 students which in my opinion is a big sample and is large enough to represent the 451 students. To collect a sample of 60 students from a total population of 451 students the best sampling method would be stratified sampling this is because each year contains separate strata’s. So each year strata needs to be represented fairly in the sample by the number of people in each year group being proportional to the group size and then the selection could be made randomly which will be fair. So I will be using stratified sampling to collect the data I need.

I have not chosen random sampling to choose a sample of 60 students from a total of 451 students because although it is a sample that avoids bias and will be a quick method it will not represent the group sizes fairly in this sort of population. Which in this case makes it an unfair sampling method.

I have turned down systematic sampling because each year group contains a different proportion of people. So one-year group may contain more people than the other year group and the second year group may contain more males than the first year group. So when the sample is chosen at regular intervals from the list not every one will be represented fairly or have an equal chance like some people have to be chosen. This makes it a bias and unfair method. Evan thought on the other hand it is a quick and easy method it will not be suitable for choosing a sample from a population such as this. In my opinion stratified sampling would be better than systematic sampling.

I have chosen stratified sampling over convenience sampling. This is because convenience sampling could be biased because of the way in which the sample is collected.

I have turned down quota sampling because it is not very reliable because it depends on the interviewer to choose the sample. Who may choose the sample unfairly or may make up some results, which distorts the data. While the advantage of it is that it is very cheap and you can get exactly what is required. In addition the person answering the questions can receive help if he or she does not understand the question. Evan though quota sampling has its advantages it can easily be distorted than stratified sampling. So in my opinion I think that stratified sampling would be a better sampling method than quota sampling would be.

Another sampling method, which I have not chosen is cluster sampling. Evan though it is very cheap to obtain and the information required can be obtained easily. It is biased if the clusters are different which affects the data a lot making it unreliable. So random sampling would be better.

The other sampling method which I have chosen stratified sampling over is opinion polls. This is because it takes to long and it works best on opinions for a large population sample but the population sample for this investigation is not as big as what it would be used for. So it is an unsuitable method to use. Also sometimes you might not get enough people in the year group you want to represent the population sample, which distorts the data. While the advantage of it is that it is easy to get the information needed and is very cheap to obtain and sometimes you can obtain large quantities of data. So in my opinion I think random sampling would be better.

Using stratified method of sampling to collect a sample

Now I will use stratified sampling to choose a sample of 60 students out of the 451 students. Since the total population contains two groups which are boys and girls. Both groups will need to be represented fairly in each year this is where stratified sampling would be the best to choose the sample from the two groups fairly.

This is table that shows the number of boys and girls in both year 10 and 11.

To choose the sample fairly I have a list of all the students in each year with their date of birth, gender and origin, which I received from my teacher. The list is arranged in the order of date of birth from biggest to smallest. Each student in the list has a number to represent them (with number one being the oldest student). They are not represented by their name this is because it is confidential information.

In order for me choose the sample I will divide the data into four quarters and choose the sample from that. This is because it will make choosing the sample more easier and much more accurate. The four quarters, which I will divide, the year in to is as follows,

The first quarter is from the -  1/9/89 to the 30/11/89

The second quarter is from the -  1/12/89 to the 28/2/90

The third quarter is from the -   1/3/90 to the 31/5/90  

 

The fourth quarter is from the – 1/6/90 to the 31/8/90

Now I will work out sample size for the number of females that should be chosen from year 10 from each quarter by using stratified sampling.

The sample size for the number of pupils in year 10 females

The number of pupils in year 10 from the female group, which I will be using as my sample size is

74/246 * 30 = 9

So I will be using a sample size of 9 female students from year 10 to represent 74 girls from year 10.

The sample size for the number of pupils in year 10, which are males

Now I will use the same method as I did previously to work out the sample size for number males in year 10

The total number of males, which I will be using to represent the sample size for year 10 males, is

172/246 * 30 = 21

I will be using a sample size of 21 boys to represent the whole population of the males in year 10.

The sample size for the number of pupils in year 11, which are female

Now I will work out the sample size for each group (males and females) of each quarter for year 11. I will do this by using the same method as I did to work out the sample size for year 10.

The sample size for the number of females in year 11 is as

82/227 * 30 = 11

So the sample size for year 11 females will be 11 pupils

The sample size for the number of pupils in year 11, which are males

I will repeat what I did previously to work out the sample size in each quarter for year 11 males.

The total sample size for the number of males in year 11 is

145/227 * 30 = 19

Now I have chosen all the samples from the quarters and chose the size of the samples. I will now choose the samples at random by putting all the numbers in a hat, mixing them up and picking a number out. This is because when I have picked out the number I need I could remove it and choose another number which is a quicker method than putting all the numbers in a hat, mixing them up and picking a number out and a random number table, which can be biased.

Random number results for year 10 females

The first quarter, which is year 10 and is females, has 25 students, which 3 students have to be chosen at random. I will do this by putting all the numbers in a hat, mixing them up and picking a number out at random and not replacing it back in the hat instead choosing another number from the hat.

Random number results from year 10 males

Random number results from year 11 females

Now I will do the same for year 11 as I did for year 10 to choose people at random for my sample.

Random number results from year 11 males

I now have 30 numbers from each year group to represent my sample.

Collecting the data

The sheet that I am going to use to collect the data is going to be on four pages for both year 10 and year 11. This is because if I had too much sheets with the data on it could get lost easily and it would be quite difficult and confusing to compare both year 10 and year 11 results. So if it is only on few sheets one for each year of the length of a line and the size of an angle than the data could easily be compared.

The length of the sheets will be 30 columns and will have four rows. The rows will be for quarter, gender, number and estimation. I will make the tables by computer so the data could easily be read and mistakes could be corrected immediately without affecting the presentation of the data.

Before I collect the data I will pre-test the sheet but on a smaller population, which will be my English class. I will pre-test it to make sure I get the correct results before I collect the actual results and to see if any amendments and alterations need to be made to the sheet.

In order for me to collect the data I would have to meet the pupils. I will do this by giving the sheet with the information of the students to my maths teacher so he only gives me a list of names in a muddled up order for each year. Then I will find out the students lessons and the room they are in from the receptionist and at break times, lunchtimes and hometimes I will go to their classrooms and when they come out their classroom I will ask them the questions. So hopefully I should be able to collect the data I need.

While collecting the data I might come past some problems. These could be things such as a pupil may have moved to another school then I would have to choose another pupil from that year and gender in order to get a complete sample. Some pupils may refuse to answer then I would have to select another pupil in the same procedure, which I selected the pupil who refused to answer. Or if the student is absent then I would wait until I collected the whole sample and then see if he/she is still absent. If they is not then I could collect the information but if they are absent then I would just have to choose another pupil from the year group and gender to represent my sample. Sometimes the pupil could be gone on a trip if he/she has gone on a trip where they will be absent for a long period of time then I will have to choose another student to represent the population. If the student is injured and is in hospital then I would have to choose another student from the remaining students in the year and gender or if the students is suspended/excluded from school then again I would have to choose another student from that remaining list of the same year and gender. Or if the school is closed due to some reason such as bad whether conditions then I would have to collect the sample on another day.  

Pre-testing the sheet

Now I will draw the sheet, which I am going to use to collect the data, but I am going pre-test the sheet using a smaller population. The population is going to be 10 pupils from my English class.  Then I will see if I uncounted any problems and I will ask the 10 students who I used to pre-test the sheet whether they think any thing could be improved and if they encounted any problems. If I uncounted any problems like the one above I will just choose another student to complete my sample. I will ask them after the English lesson.  I will choose 10 students out of the 31 students in my English class. I will do this by using a scientific calculator, which will be a quick and accurate method. I will collect the information of the 10 students in register order and I will represent them by numbers so I do not use personal information.

The 10 students are numbers 4, 13, 15, 9, 6, 14, 27, 21, 5 and 26.

The original length of the line is 7cm and the original size of the angle is 54 degrees.

 

The questions I will ask them are

What is the length of this line?

What is the size of this angle?

The results were the following:

The results show that all the students were able to answer the questions. Which shows the questions were easy. The problem, which I experienced, was that two students were absent these were numbers13 and 27 so I used a scientific calculator to choose two students at random these were numbers 16 and 11. When I asked the students if they encountered any problems student number 5 said you should read the question out more slowly and clearly. Student number 11 said that the questions should be a bit more difficult. Student number 15 also said that the questions were easy and student number 16 said that you should use bigger lengths and angles and use decimals to make it difficult. So for the actual data I will say the question much more clearly and slowly and I will use a much more difficult size of an angle and the length of a line.

Join now!

The length of the actual line is 11.5cm

                                                   

The size of the actual angle is 61 degrees

                                                     

                                  ...

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