Writing to Argue, Persuade and Advise

variables. You need only be good enough and then factor in the rest. Whether they win just the league or all five, six, whatever should resultantly not impact the assessment of the team itself other than its individual historic achievement; it doesn't mean they're any better than the United side that won individual leagues, necessarily. You could make a case by comparing the teams, but not the scale of the achievements. Again, too many uncontrollable variables which colour the assessment. With that nailed, what about those uncontrollable variables? Does that not make it more difficult to win so many trophies?The answer is no. Uncontrollable variables are by definition just that - uncontrollable. They are largely random and if anything, wherever small notes of control do reside in them, it is natural for the team concerned to work in order to secure their favour. That, incidentally, would be a rough scientific evaluation for how luck often occurs - you work to make a lot of it happen. Sure, you can't control it completely, but you potentially can have a percentage effect. That's actually the key here - rather than making it more difficult, it can actually make it ever so slightly easier. Percentage wise, however, depending on the dynamic involved - we're probably not talking anything higher than 10% at an absolutely crazy extreme. But 1-10% percentiles are highly prized when what you seek is by definition reliant on smaller dynamics. It's easier to target one thing as it restrains your control range - you control more and lose control of less. The more you seek to win, the less control you have, and resultantly with the increase in variables smaller percentiles of improvement, achievement, etc., count. United are arguably the very best side around at creating their own luck, partly due to work rate, ruthlessness, and sheer determination. As such, this factor I would put slightly in their favour. That affects momentum, which is primarily psychological. Win after win after win acts as matrices for further wins; it's a simple formula. Not perfect, for sure, but again it does constitute a variable and a percentile. What's more, it's more easily controllable than many other variables. It can become a matter of belief and will, and a lot of that comes down to the orchestrated approach of the manager in that regard. Who better than Ferguson at ensuring momentum is kept? His psychological approach is regimented and geared toward continual aspiration for the historic; he is not afraid of looking at variables as calculated risks, as opposed to automatically dismissing them as impossible targets without proper prior research. His sides as a result have done similar things before (the Treble is markedly obvious) and the culture of the club is geared toward expectation, enjoyment, and excitement of these things. Pressure is a minimally felt effect at Manchester United, despite being of course present, precisely because it is both expected and enjoyed - they don't run from it, but look for it. As a result, I'd put this factor also in their favour - momentum has been partly generated by their defensive run, which helps, but is insignificant compared to the culture and attitude of the manager. Huge, huge plus, and they're far better prepped for it than anyone else I can think of. There is also the practical issue of legs – for me, the Carling Cup has always been the most tricky leg to master, and the most important - why? Because it's not usually focused upon heavily, increasing the variables, and is the first leg - the first is always critical in ensuring momentum kicks. It's virtually a completely isolated trophy. They've done it and have their base, besides the not inconsiderable fact that the league title is although not wrapped up, certainly suffering from group suicide - apart from United. The Champions League is practically speaking the most highly pressured but they are the holders and Ferguson will use that as a positive, not a negative - wouldn't you like to be the first side in the current model to defend the trophy? It only adds to the historic import which he will play on. The F.A. Cup I'll talk more of later.When you talk of preparation you inevitably talk of injuries. Arguably the most uncontrollable of the variables, it is to a great extent a matter of pure luck; you can work for it only insofar as you can balance one's squad to avoid seeing too much of it. Who has a squad more aptly suited to the run in of a multiple trophy haul than United, currently? They have the correct balance of age, ability, and positional flexibility. Much like the issue of best versus unbelievable, you can only really be good enough in this regard and don't need eleven World Players of the Year plus genetically modified youngsters on the bench. You just need a suitable level of depth and particularly positional flexibility. United fulfil this requirement and despite a number of upsetting injury problems seem to have negotiated it well at almost the perfect time - if you get a run of six week injuries in mid April (ligament, metas etc., statistically on the rise and very common due to fatigue, i.e., even more common in April and May) then you may be in trouble, but the interesting thing in this case is they have had numerous injuries at periods chronologically suited to return. By that I mean their period of recovery matches excellently when they will be most required; it becomes rest, not recovery, if the team can survive the interim successfully. Well, they have done, and their squad is on the incline again - not perfect, but the timing is interesting. Arsenal are also experiencing this more acutely, but are obviously not bound by similar circumstances. Overall, we have to wait and see on this one, but there are factors more currently in their favour than against; it will also play with the other variables positively or negatively depending on impact, position, and tactics for certain matches where those players are lost. So far, they should be okay for the multiple assault. The other one is scheduling. A lot of this is to do with one particularly nasty leg of a multiple haul - the F.A. Cup. Replays will kill you in this kind of situation, or at least put additional pressure on the squad. So far, United look good in that regard - the luck of the draw is also being kind. Generally, though it would hard to put this in anyone's favour, so far, it's probably acceptable for a multiple haul - it's the best you can do. There are other factors involved, which have been touched on here and there, such as luck of the draw etc., suspensions, managerial incidents, press revelations, etc. Generally, it can only come down to what you can control and what you seek to control, and I see little to oppose the possibility that even if United do not win all the trophies available, they are certainly in a unique position to attempt it. That is all one can ask or expect - now it's up to managing what they can of those variables, and seeing what happens. Personally, I would put their chances of securing the lot at as high as 35-40% given current pacing and situation. That is still an absolutely remarkable figure - the fact it is being discussed with a genuine potential for execution is in my mind enormous, awesome credit to United. They are raising the already significantly high bar to a level potentially beyond anyone's wildest imagination. To merely discuss it is an achievement in and of itself, but make no bones about it - it is possible, and holds a fair betting chance of occurring.