Another long term factor was the social and economic modernisation of states such as Russia, Germany and Austro Hungary created domestic tensions and threat to its conservative rule. In order to keep hold of state control, conservative authority promoted nationalism. German aggressive diplomacy was based on its fear of encirclement. Britain and France were also faced with exterior threats: the British and the German Naval Race and France had not recovered from their defeat against Prussia in 1970. Although this sense of insecurity amongst the European states was a long term cause of war, it was not to say they provided the foundations which made war inevitable. In support of AJP Taylor’s view, the more important cause was the responsibility of the role of military commanders who initiated the war, miscalculating their own strength and long term nature of war.
It is arguable that the decline of Bismarck’s alliance system and his successors’ aggressive Weltpolitik helped pave the way to war. Kaiser Willhelm’s fanatical ambitions to rival Britain’s navy only pushed Britain, France and Russia into closer relations and his attempts to place Germany amongst international affairs provoked unnecessary friction with the British and French. The Kruger Telegram helped ruin what had been good relations with Britain, and Germany’s interference in the First Moroccan Crisis angered the French. Germany’s long term actions and political ambitions were greatly important in provoking friction between states.
The short term spark of the war was the July Crisis in 1914. The assassination of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo, Bosnia indicates the responsibility of the Serbian government. The feud between the Austro-Hungarian and Serbian government that sparked war could have been handled locally, so can be seen as not an important cause. However, this event was not so much a causal factor as much as the way in which the Powers handled it. Not to intervene would be to risk a blow to their nation’s prestige. National pride of the Great Powers in particular meant that they would rather go to war with the enemy rather than back down to a compromise. For example, Russia went to war on the basis of maintaining influence in the Balkans. Additionally, they were deceived into overconfidence in that a few sharp blows in war would conclude with victory. Austro Hungary and Serbia thought that the clash would be localised and solved quickly. As AJP Taylor states, the build up of international involvement in the war rose from long term internal weaknesses and desire for international power.
In conclusion, the main long term causes of the war were the imperialistic and military natures of the Great Powers. The attempt to gain international prestige (particularly in the Balkans) was bound to lead to conflict. Although the Alliance system can be seen as a major factor, I think individual pacts of alliances grew stronger in response to foreign threats, particularly the aggressive nature of German expansionism. Therefore I don’t this the Alliance System and its weak structure is as important as other causes. Obviously, the ultimate short term cause of war was the spark in the July Crisis, 1914. However, this escalation of the war was intricately linked to long term causes, such as the idea of going to war instead of risking national prestige. Finally, it is wrong to blame Germany for the ultimate cause of the war: responsibility should be chiefly held in the other Powers too, mainly Central, such as Austria and Serbia in their Balkans conducts.
