Land Economics and Planning

Business Park Assignment

Introduction

My client who is primarily a commercial developer wishes to purchase a disused airfield on the outskirts of the city after seeing an advert in the local newspaper. The proposed site also contains a SSSI (Site of Special Scientific Interest), centred on a pond. Although the economic growth is fairly good in this area, the client has commissioned our services to provide information and advice in making a bid for the site. As the site is of considerable scale and complexity our job is to highlight any potential risks in terms of purchasing and redevelopment of the proposed site. This information and advice will be broken down into four key elements; Economics concerning site bid, locational strengths and weaknesses from and occupiers’ perspective, planning agreement and environmental impact assessment (EIA).

Economics Concerning Site Bid

all business decisions are made based on a level or risk and uncertainty, and the development sector is no different. Before any developer attempts to make a site bid, they should be fully aware of the level of risk involved. Without this knowledge it is impossible to calculate the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the level of risk.

it is important to establish the GDV (Gross Development Value) of the site before entering a bid, as this will determine whether the development will exceed the cost of purchasing the site and all development costs, making it economically viable.

by determining the GDV this will provide a base in order to perform an informative development appraisal, also known as residual valuation. In principle this method of approach is used to calculate the capital value of an estimated future income (sale price of the completed development), and then to deduct from that the cost of all works needed to complete the development to a standard able to command such a future income.

Listed below are the calculations used to perform a residual valuation.

Residual to Land Value

GDV - Total Costs (cost and profit) = Residual Value

Residual to Profit

GDV - Total Costs = Developer’s Profit

When performing development appraisals it is important to remember that there are many variable factors that can influence the overall calculations. There are four main ones which will be looked at in regards to this particular site; estimation of rental value, building costs, professional fees and finance for the development.

Although this method is still used it is not ideal as the residual method fails to reflect the incidence of time and money payments during development. Discounted cash flow analysis is a better method of calculation and is usually used in two forms NVP (net present value) and IRR (internal rate of return).

NVP is defined as the following; to determine the NVP of a proposed development, the forecast net of tax cash flows are discounted to the time of the initial capital outlay. The rate of interest used to discount will tend to be the opportunity cost of the capital employed, the rate of return that could be earned by investing the money in the next best alternative...The NVP calculates profitability by subtracting the present values of all expenditures when they occur. When a project is identified as being a positive present value is viable. (G. Bull)

IRR is calculated in relation to the NVP as when the IRR is used to discount the cash flow would make the NVP exactly zero. A project is only viable if its yield is greater than the required rate of return.'....it sets out to establish, by trial and error,a rate of interest that makes the present values of all expenditures incurred in a project equal to the present values of all revenues gained......having worked out the IRR or yield, for each alternative, they should be compared with the cost of borrowing the capital.' (G. Bull)

there will always be a level of risk and uncertainty as no matter how many calculations are done simply because not all eventualities can simply be calculated. Therefore it is advised that a sensitivity analysis is performed as a way of dealing with the risks of such uncertainty. The way in which it works is by taking four key variables (rent, yield, cost and time) alternating each one in an informal and realistic way. By doing this we can analyse how sensitive the profitability of the project will from changes in any one of the four variables, allowing us to identify critical variables and take suitable action.

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As well as performing sufficient calculations it is important to note that with any planning application the LPA will attach conditions. The conditions are always never personal and usually 'run with the land', therefore the conditions used include:

  • securing the adequate landscaping of a project;
  • phasing a development to match the completion of infrastructure;
  • linking 'granny annexes' to the main dwelling so that it cannot be sold off as a separate entity;
  • limiting the operation of noisy plant or machinery to particular hours in the day and days in the week;
  • limiting the number of flights from an ...

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