Managerial Economics

The ‘alternative’ investment sector continues its phenomenal growth. Assets deployed to hedge fund investment had topped $2 trillion by the beginning of 2007 and could reach $6 trillion by the end of the decade. Private equity and venture capital investment accounted for more than 0.3% of global GDP ($130 billion) in 2005. From an investor perspective Financial Services is now one of the industries at the centre of the alternate radar.

In addition to maintaining a close proximity to its clients in mature markets, Credit Suisse is also committed to growing its footprint in emerging markets in order to meet the increasing demand for innovative and integrated financial services and advice. In 2006, Credit Suisse expanded its operation in a number of key growth markets, like Latin America, Russia, South Africa, Middle East and China by opening offices, expanding its onshore activities, recruiting staff and extending its range of product offerings.

• Market Supply and Understanding the Company’s Costs

The number of sellers in a market will affect total market supply. When new firms enter a market, supply increases and causes downward pressure on the market price.

The services provided by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS and other investment banks can cause shifts in the supply curve which interacts with market demand curve to form the equilibrium price.

One of the factors that influence the elasticity of supply is Resource substitution possibilities. The supply of goods and services lies between zero elasticity of supply and high elasticity of supply. The services provided by Credit Suisse are highly elastic. Any increase in the price can lead clients to opt for Credit Suisse competitors.

Credit Suisse wanted to concentrate on its capital and energy on its core banking activities to ensure that quality services are supplied to clients, sold its subsidiary Winterthur to Axa Group in June 2006 for CHF 12.3 billion.

Credit Suisse has made optimal use of the growth and synergies resulting from the integration of the business by maintaining a disciplined approach to costs. It rolled out a cost management initiative with the aim of further developing a cost-conscious culture, more actively managing costs and increasing the flexibility of the cost structure and the efficiency of business processes.

In the face of today’s ever more exacting customer expectations, the challenge is how to re-develop the personal understanding and rapport of the traditional branch, while remaining cost competitive. Credit Suisse has responded to this need by establishing Centres of Excellence that leverage its global talent pool and resources in order to supply high-quality internal services at competitive costs. In Jan 2007 Credit Suisse branded facility in Pune, India commenced operations. The Pune site complements Credit Suisse’s existing Centre of Excellence in Singapore and Raleigh, North Carolina.

• Economic growth and business cycle

The global economy continued to expand at a brisk pace in the first half of 2007, according to the July update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO). "Emerging market countries have led the way, with China growing by 11½ percent in the first half of 2007, and India and Russia also growing very strongly” - Charles Collyns (APPENDIX 1).

The major upward have been in emerging market and developing countries, with growth projections for China, India and Russia each marked up substantially. Growth projections for the euro area, particularly Germany, and Japan have also been raised whereas the US growth is now expected at 2 percent in 2007 (0.2 percentage points lower than projected in the April 2007 WEO).

“In their search for growth, expansion by financial institutions into new markets is likely. China and India catch most eyes, although other less-vaunted markets, such as Middle East and Indonesia, may also come to the fore over the medium term”. Credit Suisse is ahead in the race by being the first major global financial institutions to be awarded a license to operate in the Qatar Financial Centre in March 2006. This license enabled Credit Suisse to open a subsidiary in Doha, from which it offers high-net-worth individuals and institutional clients a comprehensive range of investment advisory services and products. Furthermore, Credit Suisse’s subsidiary in Lebanon was registered as a financial institution in March 2006. With these two new locations, in addition to the well-established full-service bank in Dubai, Saudi Swiss Securities, and the equities business in Saudi Arabia, Credit Suisse is well placed to respond to the demand for financial solutions in this dynamic region.

In Indonesia, PT Credit Suisse Investment Management Indonesia (PT CSIMI) became operational in February 2006. In Vietnam, Credit Suisse received regulatory approval to engage in the trading of domestic equities and government and corporate bonds. Credit Suisse is one of the first foreign banks to receive certificates to trade both domestic equity and fixed income securities.

Financial market risks have also increased as credit quality has deteriorated in some sectors and market volatility has increased.  The clearest area in which risks have risen is credit risk, where the weakening of credit discipline has resulted in higher market risk, notably on products based on US subprime market and leveraged loan market.  Banks and corporations in some emerging markets countries have tapped foreign capital markets leading to overly rapid borrowing, which is further complicated by their foreign currency exposures.

• Capital Accumulation and Technological Progress

Marx’s theory of capital accumulation and growth are categorised as “real analysis” in the categories of Schumpeter (1954, pp.277-278). Capital accumulation and innovation are determinants of long-run growth of the company and key assumption is that capital is used in technological developments and R& D.

Credit Suisse reported the strongest capital base in its history at the General Meeting on May 4th 2007. “2006 was a record year for Credit Suisse. We reported a 94% increase in net income to CHF11.3 billion compared to 2005” Oswald J. Grübel, CEO, Credit Suisse Group.

Credit Suisse has a panel of nine senior economists, strategists and investment professional knows as “The Global Economic Strategy Group (GESG)”. The GESG meets on a monthly basis to review key developments in the global economy, such as growth trends and the outlook for inflation, as well as discussing forecasts for the bond, equity and currency markets. The findings of these meetings are integrated into Credit Suisse’s internal investment process and play a determining role in the bank’s decisions on asset allocation on behalf of its clients in Private Banking and Asset Management. The purpose of the GESG is to make Credit Suisse’s research and analytic expertise available to both current and potential clients.

The phenomenal advances in Information Technology (IT) over the past few decades have completely transformed the finance Industry. Thirty years ago, banks were still using punch card technology, and the first generations of computers were being unveiled. Today, the banking sector uses highly sophisticated IT solutions in virtually all of its daily operations.

Technological development is one of the main sources of growth within the banking sector. In addition to accelerating business processes, enhancing efficiency and significantly reducing costs, it is also the driving force behind the creation of new and innovative financial products and services, such as algorithmic and derivatives trading.

Credit Suisse’s Total operating expenses for 2006 were CHF 2,352 million, an increase from 2005 of CHF 557 million, or 31%. The increase includes the expenses of higher information technology, clearly shows how keen Credit Suisse is in investing in technological growth. Credit Suisse is constantly investing in its “Centre of Excellence”. These centers enrich Credit Suisse talent and give them the flexibility to meet a wide variety of needs across product area and provide tailor made needs of clients. Sophisticated technology is a key to the success of these centers.

• Role of Government, Regulation and Fiscal Policy

The emerging markets are home to over half of the worlds population and are an important source of economic growth in the 21st century. The international banking industry plays a central role in the transfer of capital from industrialized economies to the emerging markets, thus opening up new business and investment opportunities.

Credit Suisse has a leadership position in some of the world’s most dynamic emerging markets that dates back more than 20 years. Today, its integrated banking model serves as an effective platform from which to capture the attractive growth opportunities in the “E7” economies, comprising China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey.

Governments are increasingly playing active roles in emerging economies, advocated by Keynesians, in allocating, distributing and stabilizing economic factors because emerging economies are inefficient, instable and stagnant. Fiscal policies have a direct impact on country’s economy and so no Credit Suisse’s. Any changes in corporation taxes have direct impact on Credit Suisse’s profit. Higher taxes will slow down people’s savings and or investments in Financial Market and this will affect Credit Suisse balance sheet.

Globalization is increasing the mobility of both goods and people. For example, the number of kilometers traveled by air in 2005 has almost tripled compared to the level in 1980. The global population increased by approximately 20% over the same period. Globalization is also resulting in the relocation of the workforce to cost-effective locations, while the West is experiencing a transition towards a service-oriented economy as the industrial sector loses ground. The European clothing industry has, for instance, shed around 300,000 jobs since 2004. All of these changes are giving rise to new infrastructural requirements that take account of our increasingly service-oriented society.

Governments have started to bridge the gap between infrastructural shortcomings and infrastructural demand by engaging in joint ventures between the public and private sector. Many governments are granting long-term concessions to private companies for specific development projects, while banks are increasingly offering sizeable long-term loans. Credit Suisse estimates that this form of financial leverage will grow, as banks become more involved in infrastructure financing.

Financial sector is well regulated and the outlook for the banking system is favorable, though there are risks. Regulation tops the list of risks facing banks and insurers. The complexity and management cost of compliance are inevitably heightened each time a group moves into a new territory and faces a fresh set of local regulations. Bringing the world’s largest economy into an International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) fold that already includes around 100 countries would clearly enhance the global comparability of financial reporting. Multinational groups like Credit Suisse, currently prepared in accordance with US GAAP, could also make considerable savings by moving to a single set of financial reporting procedures.

• Role of Government and Monetary Policy

Monetary policy has been successful in addressing the combined effects of a cyclical slowdown and rising energy prices. Increases in interest rates during 2006 and 2007 helped cool demand and contain, so far, the second-round effects of energy price increases.

Monetary policies can be divided into two groups having affected on Credit Suisse economy, first being the country monetary policy and second International Monetary policies. Increase in interest rates has direct impact on Credit Suisse lending business, more interest means borrowers will have lesser interest in borrowing money even though higher interest will increase Credit Suisse’s revenue. A potentially important source of uncertainty for monetary policy will come from immigration: it will be important to understand the nature of its effect on the economy and assess the possibility that it could boost supply relative to demand.

On the other hand if US, Japan, Australia etc monetary policies are changed, it affects directly FX business of Credit Suisse.

Government’s economic policy aims to maintain a stable, growing economy with low inflation and unemployment. Even though Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary and financial policy frameworks are some of the most transparent in the world, IMF has recommended few refinements to BoE. These refinements are related to Bank’s financial stability interest in securities settlement systems, general principles for emergency liquidity assistance, Bank’s role more generally in financial crisis situations etc. These refinements will bring more transparency in reporting and understanding

• Foundations of International trades

The British economist David Ricardo (1772-1823) advocated that production can be maximised if each nation does what it does most efficiently, even if there are hundreds of nations producing thousands of products at different cost structures and levels of efficiency. Even though this theory oversimplifies today’s world and fails to address transportation costs, quality, differences in domestic demand etc, but proves absolutely true for Financial Industry where most of the Investment banks are outsourcing their back office jobs to low cost centres like Singapore, India and Eastern Europe.

Investment banks “product” is information and services which are not dependent on transportation and hence fits perfectly into David Ricardo theory. Credit Suisse, following this theory, has transferred their back office jobs to the nations what they are most efficient to do, by opening “Centre of Excellence” in low cost and highly talented nations.

Capital flows are taking on an ever more global dimension. The international diversification of the procurement of funds and of capital investment is playing a particularly important role in industrial countries. However, emerging countries are becoming more and more embedded in international capital flows. The annual volume of external financing for emerging countries has grown 11-fold since 1970 (calculated in terms of constant, i.e. inflation-adjusted US dollars).

The internationalization of financial services is an important issue for the strengthening and liberalizing of financial systems in developing countries. The elimination of discriminatory treatment between foreign and domestic financial services providers and the removal of barriers to the cross-border provision of financial services opens the door to the entry of foreign suppliers.

In many industrial economies, almost all of the manufacturing resources that can be relocated to low-cost countries have by now been moved. This is not the case for the service industry, which was slow to adapt to globalization, even though professional services and banking are ideally suited to it. But that is changing. The prime driver for the emerging markets to enter into the global markets was GATS. The second most important driver was information technology, which makes it possible to distribute services functions globally. Credit Suisse has recently moved its Prime Trade division to Pune, India.

• Market Structures and Company Strategies

In the years to come, net promoter scores, balanced scorecards and other closely targeted information streams, which not only seek to identify sources of growth but also potential opportunities lost, will become essential parts of the banking toolkit. The key differentiator will be the agility with which institutions respond to this information by swiftly providing solutions for clients evolving needs and ensuring consistent excellence across all customer interfaces.

The financial market structure is very competitive and resides under perfect competition rules, consisting of roughly equally sized operators and final consumers. Credit Suisse’s strategy builds on its integrated structure and client-centric business model and ensures that the Group can deliver its full range of products and services to clients from across its three divisions, Investment Banking, Private Banking and Asset Management.

Investment Banking

Credit Suisse is building on existing strengths that are well matched against market trends. These trends include the growth of the emerging markets, further growth in structured products, the role of financial sponsors and the move toward electronic execution. Credit Suisse is well positioned to benefit from these trends by further capitalizing on their industry-leading emerging markets platform, their leading commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) businesses, their leading franchise in leveraged finance and financial sponsors and their Advanced Execution Services (AES®) electronic trading platform. Credit Suisse should also target areas where there is additional potential to close business gaps such as prime services, commodities and derivatives.

Private Banking

Credit Suisse is improving their wealth management offering by anticipating the key trends that shape the wealth management industry. They look at their clients from three different angles: source of wealth, investment behavior and lifecycle phase. These three dimensions allow them to advise and serve their clients according to their needs.  They plan to further expand their global presence by offering onshore and offshore capabilities in all major regions.

Asset Management

Credit Suisse Asset Management growth strategy includes expansion into new geographic markets in line with the integrated bank and expansion into new asset classes and investment capabilities through strategic alliances, particularly in the area of alternative investments. Asset Management is also focused on strengthening its single strategy hedge fund business.

Asset Management continued to focus on strengthening its presence in key markets and building its investment platform in attractive, high-margin businesses. In addition, as part of the strategy to expand Asset Management’s alternative investments business, Credit Suisse launched several growth initiatives through close collaboration with other firms with investment expertise in a variety of different asset classes and investment styles. These initiatives will enable Asset Management to grow its leading alternative investments business across a variety of new products, sectors and regions. This included a joint initiative with Ospraie Management, an investment partnership with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company and joint ventures with China Renaissance Capital Group and General Electric Infrastructure (Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP)). GIP had its first important and high profile deal to acquire London City Airport together with AIG Financial Products Corporation, each owning 50%. As part of its strategy to develop its presence in Asia, Credit Suisse announced a joint venture in South Korea with Woori Asset Management, in which Credit Suisse acquired a 30% stake.

Background Factors

• Market analysis, failure and responses

Market failure analysis is a type of economic analysis. It is important because it can indicate whether there is any prospect of a net benefit emerging from regulatory intervention. Government intervention occurs when markets are not working optimally i.e. there is a Pareto sub-optimal allocation of resources in a market/industry. In simple terms, the market may not always allocate scarce resources efficiently in a way that achieves the highest total social welfare.

There are plenty of reasons why the normal operation of market forces may not lead to economic efficiency e.g. Monopoly, Externalities and Inequality etc.

A good or service generates externalities if its production or consumption affects the welfare of people or firms other than its original producers or consumers without prices reflecting such effects. Externalities may be negative or positive. The classic example of negative externality in financial services is systemic risk, where the failure of one bank may lead to runs on other banks and hence to problems for those other banks and their customers.

Credit Suisse response to some of the negative externalities is that, in 2006, Credit Suisse was presented with the “Sustainable Energy Finance Deal of the Year” award by the Financial Times and the International Finance Corporation for successfully executing the USD 455 million IPO of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd.  Suntech is a leading solar energy company and the first major alternative energy firm to be based in China. This prize was awarded to the bank which “executed the energy transaction with the largest sustainable impact in terms of environmental, social and financial value creation, its innovative structure and its potential for replication.”

Credit Suisse is committed to using natural resources as sparingly as possible in its internal processes. It has been operating an environmental management system that is certified according to ISO 14001 since 1997.  

Credit Suisse reached an important milestone and made a key contribution to climate protection in 2006 with its pilot project to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality in Switzerland.

Together with the UN’s World Food Programme, Credit Suisse also launched a “Food for Education” initiative in Sri Lanka. As part of the initiative, kitchen and food storage facilities will be constructed for 61 schools, which will be able to offer school lunches to approximately 19,000 children throughout 2007 and 2008.

• Labor market and unemployment

The trends in the employment and unemployment rates are falling. There has been a further fall in the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance benefit. The trend in the inactivity rate is increasing. The number of job vacancies has increased. Growth in average earnings, both excluding and including bonuses, has increased.

Reduced unemployment is a positive sign for financial sector as government spending in encouraging higher education will bring more talented people in market and banks don’t have to struggle for battle for talent. A research by PriceWaterHouse Coopers shows that attracting, retaining, developing and promoting outstanding talent are among the critical capabilities that distinguish successful enterprises. Effective knowledge, people and culture management are critical in the journey towards successful global integration.

The Credit Suisse Business School supports the bank’s employees by providing internal and external training opportunities. Today, the Business School is a global organization with central training locations in Switzerland, New York, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

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References and Bibliography

Managerial Economics

        Howard Davies & Pun-Lee Lam, 2001, Managerial Economics – An Analysis of Business Issues, England, FT Prentice Hall, Third Edition.

Level 1 Economics

        Economic, Level 1 2007, CFA Program Curriculum Volume 2, Pearson Custom Publishing.

Economics

        Tom Gorman, 2003, The Complete Idiot’s guide to Economics, Alpha Books.

Web References

Accessed on 5th September 2007.

Accessed on 7th September 2007.

Accessed on 10th September 2007.

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APPENDIX 1

GDP Growth
UK economy rose by 0.8% in Q2 2007

APPENDIX 2

UK Employment Graphs

Rate rises to 74.4% in 3 months to July 07

APPENDIX 3

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