POLITICAL UNCERTANITY:
Political instability has also played a role. Pakistan has seen quick changes in ruling governments over the past few decades. Each regime has proposed quick fixes to the problem but no comprehensive energy policy that provides a long term vision for energy production in Pakistan
WASTAGE OF ENERGY
Industry uses around 30.0 per cent of total power generated and around 45 per cent of total electricity generated is used for domestic consumption. Use of energy in old machines and lack of awareness of efficiently using it in industry and for domestic consumption causes substantial loss that might be difficult to quantify but can be definitely reduced. Similarly transport sector uses around 28.0 per cent of energy. It wastes energy due to old transport and improperly tuned engines. Heavy losses due to transmission, distribution and theft are estimated around 30.0 per cent. Large scale theft of electricity as clearly revealed by the growing difference between units generated or purchased and those paid for.
INCREASE IN SUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY:
The basic cause is the utter failure to increase the supply of electricity to keep pace with the growing demand. While the installed generation capacity had increased by 53 per cent between 1994 and 1999 (from 11,320 MW to 17,400 MW), it increased by only 12 per cent between 1999 and 2007, to 19,420 MW.
under-utilization of existing generating capacity.:
The availability of hydel electricity naturally goes down in winter months by 60 per cent from 6,400 MW to about 2,500 MW, but unfortunately, the actual generation of electricity from thermal plants has also declined by 4,000 MW against the installed capacity of 13,000 MW, thus raising the demand supply gap to 5000 MW:
HIGH COST OF FUEL
The cost of crude has increased from 40 $ to 140 $/barrel s last couple of month it means the generation from thermal units are costing exorbitant price. WAPDA and KESC when purchasing electricity on higher cost are not eager to keep on selling the electricity on loss. Therefore they do not move on general complain of load shedding.
MONOPOLY IN THE BUSINESS
Wapda and KESC are two generation and dispatch units in Pakistan. although NEPRA is a government authority to settle the tariff issues but the fact remains that once the question of WAPDA comes the authority has a very little influence.
EXPLORING COAL
Pakistan is blessed with large amount of the coal. again no serious work is done to explore the coal for power generation. This is complained that the coal quality is inferior. however tailored made solutions are available to burn any type of coal. Government is looking for private sector to play its role.
RENEWABLE ENERGY
The government exerting great efforts to develop the renewable energy. PPIB has issued letter of intent to many private sector sponsors. If a serious work is done then the total shortage can be met from Hydro and wind power sector.
ENERGY PLANNING
in spite higher costs immediate relief is only possible with thermal power plants which can be commissioned in 24 months time. A comprehensive and realistic planning will help to develop generating units in Pakistan which will be a catalytic element for the economic growth , poverty elevation and prosperity in Pakistan
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
Wapda briefing highlight the poor distribution system as the main cause of tripping and break down of the system. However we consider as the last of our concern.
This is true that the distribution system causes many unwanted tripping and break down but now we honestly believe that the shortage of energy generation is our main cause of the problem
for last twenty years WAPDA and KESC complaining about the distribution system but fails to bring any improvement.
EFFFECTS:
No country can achieve high economic growth without producing sufficient energy. Production of energy reflects industrial output, agricultural output, transportation, etc. Electricity load shedding in Pakistan is alarming. When energy supply of an industry is restricted, its output decreases and cost of production increases due to which many industries shut down leaving labour unemployed. The upsurge of inflation is due to energy shortage in Pakistan. Number of people living below poverty line is increasing due to unemployment and inflation, both of which are by-products of energy crisis.
Effect on daily life:
load shedding has profound effects on a man's psychological condition and mental capacity. It stimulates negative emotions of frustration, repugnance, anger, aggression, acrimony and leads to an absolute absence of patience.
As in almost every other field Pakistan is suffering also with a very serious crisis in the power/electricity generation sector. In fact according to a recent estimate around 67% of our population continues living in darkness even in this modernized era.The electricity and power shortage is a chronic problem that has slowed Pakistan’s social and economic growth rate
EFFECTS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(GDP) AND GNP:
Effects on small and large scale business:
The continuing power crisis has not only disrupted the daily lives and businesses of people but has also added to their miseries. It has impeded the growth of both small scale and large scale businesses. Industrial progress is in shambles owing to the unpredictable and the unreliable power supply.The shopping malls and the open markets that were once swamped by the customers are now dark and deserted.
power cut caused disruption to industrial production. Load shedding has caused irreversible losses to the small traders and unemployment rates have almost doubled this year. Local traders face colossal losses, which have put the lights out on almost 25 percent of cottage and small industries in the city.
Over 250,000 workers linked to cottage industries and small businesses are badly affected. Printing presses, garments manufacturers and power looms operators are the main victims of load shedding, he said, adding that power looms have gone down from 30,000 to merely 9,000 while printing presses are down to 7,000. Over 2,500 small garments traders have been partially closed while the remaining have lost local and international orders since they were not able to fill these orders on time, thanks mainly to load shedding.
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. According to The News, almost 25 percent of small traders in Karachi have shut down their businesses. This has also increased unemployment. The losses small traders face for every hour of load shedding amount to Rs.1.13 billion. The small and medium sized industries that do not have their own power generating plants were forced to reduce their working staff.
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over 100% increase in raw iron prices in the last 3 months, coupled with unprecedented power load shedding, has crippled Pakistan’s local industry and brought production down to barely 30%
- HYDERABAD: Pakistan Wapda Hydro Electric Central Labour Union (CBA) President: Closure of 3,000 industrial units because of acute power and gas shortage has rendered jobless tens of thousands of workers.
- There are lots of small printing shops where people work on small machines.according to them the machine takes at least 10-20 minutes to warm up before starting printing and the electricity breakdown happens 12-14 hours a day.
- A 2-hour load-shedding in industrial area means a loss of million of rupees to the national exchequer and denial of man-hour utilization in industries.
- According to The Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts & Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM) has expressed deep concern over unscheduled load-shedding of electricity which is causing heavy losses to the auto industry. load-shedding of electricity is making it almost impossible for auto parts’ manufacturing units to meet local and export orders. non-availability of electricity was forcing the industrialists to close their units .
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The All-Pakistan Organisation of Small Traders and Cottage Industries has claimed that over 4,000 business units have closed down and more could face the same fate with the hike in power supply and tariff.
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Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturers Association (North Zone) announced that the continuous increase the load shedding and gas shortage have forced 25 per cent Hosiery Units to close their businesses. the frequent interruptions in gas and electricity supply cause delay in meeting export orders. Therefore, to overcome the delay, the exporters have to send their consignments by air instead of sea at higher cost
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According to THE NEWS: The daily 18 to 20 hours long load shedding of electricity was badly affecting the working of more than 6000 small and big sized industrial units in export-oriented Sialkot, and this critical situation was rendering the hundreds of the daily waged labourers and industrial workers job less and due to this critical situation foreign buyers were canceling their orders as the Sialkot exporters were unable to ensure the timely dispatch of their export consignments to their foreign destinations.
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agriculture machinery manufacturer, auto parts manufacturer and surgical instruments manufacturers had press confrences in which they said that small manufacturers were the worst hit in the present circumstances and asserted that several were facing starvation.
All stakeholders associated with this sector have been badly affected, with high input costs and work in factories grinding to a halt for hours with every power shutdown.
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Pakistan Readymade Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PRGMEA)described taht the export of the country has been decreased to 50 percent due to load shedding and insufficient supply of sui gas to the industrial sector. the million meters cloth has also been struck up with dyeing mills due to insufficient gas supply to the mills, under this situation no foreign buyer will like to give new export orders to Pakistani exporters and ultimately the national exports would face a serious blow.
Food business, like others, runs on electricity. Urban dwellers all over the country are hooked on to the diverse food items and restaurants. The ever growing businesses have multiplied the number of bakeries, cafes and restaurants everywhere. The well-to-do food chains and restaurants in the posh areas are coping with the crisis in their own way, through their resources and revenue. The not-so-well-off businessmen suffer most. Consistent power cuts in all the areas have severely affected the food business in the city.
- Ice- cream parlor and general stores where ice- cream are kept suffering a lot as ice-cream needs to be preserved at a particular temperature, it requires larger machinery meaning more electricity.
According to meat shopkeeper: "Our business is affected badly by electricity load-shedding. There is no electricity here for most part of the day. We only have one big freezer here but we don't normally need it because we don't use frozen meat. The freezer is used for red meat. With no electricity in this area people think that the meat is not good so they prefer to buy it little expensive but from shops where they have generators. It is worse because these big meat shops that are opening everywhere are destroying us."
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According to tailor (sticher): Tailors "There is no electricity for almost two hours each day, This has resulted in a delay in meeting the deadlines of customers. Needless to say my customers are very upset and angry with me. But I can’t do anything as there is no power almost 10 hours daily which badly affected my business.
- Cng stations: The power shut down also affected the fool supply at various filling station, the cng station also restricted the per vehicle gas supply to just two mft, leaving the consumer in difficult situation.
Effect on textile business:
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Textile exports of the country decreased by 3.79 per cent during the first seven months of the current financial year as compared to the corresponding period of the last financial year.
During January-July 2008-09 textile products export was recorded at $5.82 billion as compared to export of $ 6.05 billion registered during July-January 2007-08,
the highest decrease of 56.51 per cent was registered in export of yarn other than cotton yarn. Textile exports during January 2009 decreased by 8.98 per cent as compared to December 2008.
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In punjab textile industry’s share was over 60 per cent, adding according to APTMA’s study energy supply disruption only was causing an estimated loss of Rs1 billion per day.
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According to chief KATI; 150 spinning and 10,000 weaving units had already closed down across the country. in the last three months over 300,000 industrial workers had lost their job in Faisalabad alone.
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PTEA Chairman said that: textile industry, earning 65 percent of total foreign exchange and providing 40 percent employment in the country, is presently on the verge of disaster textile exports have slid by 6 percent in 2008 compared to preceding yea. bed sheets exports declined by 9 percent and garments exports slumped by 20 percent due to 18 to 20 hours load shedding of gas and electricity as major factors.
Effects on export orders:
there was 40 percent shortfall in the exports because USA and European countries were the major buyers of Pakistani products.
According to THE NEWS: LAHORE: Basic textile mills, flooded with export orders due to the global textile industry realignment, have been unable to cash in on the opportunity as gas load-shedding.
All Pakistan Textile Mills Association claimed that 60 to 70 per cent of the industry had been affected and was unable to accept export orders coming in from around the globe.
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According to All Pakistan Textiles Mills Association (APTMA) :hundreds of industrial units have been closed due to energy shortage. textile industry has more than 60 share in country’s exports, 27 in industrial value addition and 38 in employment sector but energy deficit pushed this large sector to the wall. exporters are unable to meet their export orders, textile export orders worth $5 billion were lost at Heimtextil Fair Germany this year while sixty thousand jobs are in danger as a result of the downfall in industrial production in Faisalabad region due to severe load shedding of electricity and gas.
Effects on traffic of country:
The intermittent load-shedding, is causing traffic jams as traffic signals remain switched off due to power cuts.The city plunges into darkness with the approach of dusk while the hide and seek of electricity continues for the whole night leaving a deep impact on the lives of the general public.
President ICCI stated that the slump in industrial activities is creating many difficulties for our economy due to which our fiscal deficit has climbed from 4.3 per cent of GDP to 7.4 per cent during 2007-08; the current account deficit accelerated from 4.8 per cent of GDP to 8.4 per cent. President ICCI stated that the government is targeting a GDP growth rate of above 6 percent for the coming years and added that without accelerating industrial activities, this target cannot be achieved.
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in pakistan the reasons of eneergy crisi are:
- reduction of the Hydroelectric generation
decreased the water in Mangla and Tarbela dams, among the largest dams in Pakistan, causing the reduction of the Hydroelectric generation
- Another reason for the current electric load shedding is pecuniary matter. The production of electric energy through oil and gas is pricey. Hence, the use of oil in Pakistan for generating electricity is proving costly. Since government authorities did not have enough funds to buy sufficient oil, they were unable to meet the demand. Consequently the government stopped subsidizing electricity to meet their expenditure, which ultimately led to the increase in electricity charges. However, the price of oil has seen a dramatic drop in recent months, but experts say that oil is still a costly option for Pakistan to produce energy.
- As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, electricity consumption has increased by 8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter
- The country may plunge into energy crisis by the year 2007 due to rising electricity demand which enters into double digit figure following increasing sale of electrical and electronic appliances on lease finance, it is reliably learnt Thursday.
due to a host of factors such as inadequate institutional framework, financial constraints, sky- rocketing oil prices, high risks, low interest of private sector, heavy costs and complex character of hydrocarbon development. To address the issue of demand-supply gap, the government is working on many fronts, including the import of electricity and gas from Iran, utilization of 185 billion reserves of coal, development of small hydro projects, promotion of efficient use of energy, and acceleration of current programmes of alternative energy development.
“The country may face energy crisis by the year 2007 following healthy growth of 13 per cent in electricity demand during the last quarter, which will erode surplus production in absence of commissioning of any new power generation project during this financial year,
- Usage of electicity:
- , the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07.
The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW.
Conclusion:
The energy demand is expected to increase by 7% annually. The government estimates that by 2010, Pakistan will have to increase its generating capacity by more than 50 percent to meet demand. However, no projects are currently in the works for new energy generation. In comparison to the rest of the world, Pakistan has meager energy needs. Pakistan's per capita consumption is a fifth of the global average, yet the country has failed to meet its needs.
