Last budget delivered by the Minister of Finance for South-Africa - 2004.

Authors Avatar

Economics

Course Code: MBL 916-Q

Due date: 21 June 04

Group Assignment 1

CEN404A

Index

  1. Budget highlights
  1. On the economy
  2. Tax Proposals
  3. Main spending changes

  1. Introduction to the budget
  1.  Budget environment
  2.  Economic objectives
  3.  Global Trends
  4.  Balance of payments
  5.  Economic growth in developing countries

  1. Government Policies
  1. Fiscal Policy
  1. Nature and goals of fiscal policy
  2. Instruments of fiscal policy
  3. Fiscal policy trends
  4. Effectiveness of fiscal policy  
  1. Monetary Policy
  1. Monetary Concerns
  2. Money Supply
  3. Measuring Monetary Policy

  1. Public debt and the budget deficit
  1. The concept of public debt and deficits
  2. Size and composition of the debt

  1. Gross Domestic Product

  1. Government challenges
  1. Unemployment
  2. Development and poverty upliftment
  3. HIV

  1. Conclusion

Last budget delivered by the Minister of Finance for South-Africa - 2004

1. Budget highlights for 2004

1.1 On the economy

  • GDP growth was a disappointing 1,9 per cent in 2003, but is expected to strengthen to 2,9 per cent this year, rising to 3,6 per cent and 4,0 per cent in 2005 and 2006 respectively.
  • Consumer price inflation continued to decline during 2003, in part because further appreciation of the rand contributed to declining prices of imported goods. CPIX inflation is expected to average 4,8 per cent in 2004, well within the target range of 36 per cent.
  • The Reserve Bank's repo rate and prime lending rates were reduced by 5'/ percentage points in 2003, bringing relief to consumers, lowering the costs of investment and signalling lower inflation expectations for the years ahead.
  • Gross fixed capital formation increased by 6,1 per cent in 2002 and 8,3 per cent in 2003, providing a foundation for stronger growth and productivity advances in future.
  • Export volumes have been sluggish in 2002 and 2003 and imports have grown strongly, leading to a moderate deficit on the current account balance in 2003 after a small surplus in 2002. Strong growth in both exports and imports is projected for the period ahead. Substantial capital inflows have contributed to a marked strengthening of South Africa's overall foreign reserves, and the Reserve Bank's forward foreign exchange liabilities are now more than covered by net foreign reserves.
  • Building on the spirit of partnership underpinning the Growth and Development Summit Agreement and the Financial Sector Charter, signed in 2003, transformation and broadbased empowerment in the decade ahead will address human resource imbalances, broaden access to economic opportunities, accelerate investment and promote enterprise development progressively overcoming the inequality and divisions that characterise South Africa's "two economies".

1.2 Tax proposals

  • Personal income taxes are cut, benefiting taxpayers by a total of R4 billion. People under 65 earning below R32 222 a year or over 65 and earning under R50 000 will not pay income tax next year.
  • Interest income exemption is raised to R11 000 for people under 65 and to     R16 000 for senior citizens.
  • Transfer duty threshold is raised to R150 000. Stamp duties on mortgage loans are eliminated.
  • The general fuel levy on petrol goes up by 10c a litre, and the Road Accident Fund levy increases by 5c a litre. The diesel rebate for primary producers is increased by 15c a litre.
  • A packet of 20 cigarettes will cost 64 cents more, a 340ml can of beer 4 cents more, wine increases by 21c and spirits 176c per 750ml.
  • Ad valorem excise duties are eliminated on recorded music, some cosmetic products, print film, watches and clocks, printers and photocopying machines.

1.3 Main spending changes over the next three years

  • An additional R3.2 billion goes to provinces and municipalities for the Expanded Public Works Programme and infrastructure development.
  • R2.1 billion more for the HIV and Aids treatment programme.
  • R6 billion for broadbased Black Economic Empowerment Initiatives.
  • R2.2 billion more for municipal water, sanitation, electricity and refuse services.
  • Provinces get an additional R819.7 billion for social grants, schools, hospitals and clinic services.
  • R910 million more for the restructuring of universities and technikons.
  • R700 million more for land reform and R750 million for a new farmer support programme.
  • R1.9 billion more for more police personnel, vehicles and IT infrastructure in the fight against crime.
  • A further R475 million to improve the efficiency of the courts and to cater for vulnerable groups.
  • An additional R1.1 billion to Defence for peacekeeping operations in Burundi and the DRC.
  • R850 million more to Home Affairs to improve services to citizens, especially in rural areas.

Budget 2004 at a glance

Table 1: Macroeconomic outlook - summary

Figure 1: Macro economic outlook – real growth

In an attempt to measure the gap between the supply and demand curve for foreign exchange, countries collect balance of payments statistics.  In the table above, the negative balance suggests that the country is using more foreign exchange than foreigners are supplying to the market. The balance of payments deficit in the table above is a clear warning indicating that the government must look at changes in policy regarding its transactions with the rest of the world. One possibility would be to abandon fixed exchange rates in the event that it does exist, such is the case with the Brazilian Real and the US Dollar.  To estimate the gap between the supply and demand curves, the government first must try to measure all the uses and all the sources of foreign exchange. In South Africa the government should consider attracting more foreign investment, preferably direct and not speculative or short term.

From the graph above, a comparison of the 2004 budget against the 2003 budget shows an increase in household consumption (0,5%), exports (7,5%) and GDP. According to the Government’s plans this will be achieved by 2007. On the other hand, imports will remain fairly constant, while capital formation is projected to decrease by 2,8% and CPIX falls from 6,8% to 4,8%. To make this possible, a conscious effort will be made to decrease interest rates, as already seen, and stabilise the economy further.

Table 2: Main Budget framework

Gross domestic product measures the value of a nation’s output of goods and services produced within its borders over a specific period.  GDP statistics have some limitations i.e. it counts only goods and services that pass through an organised system or markets. The GDP per capita is more or less R2753 / head, assuming a population of 44 million.  Although this figure is low, South African is not regarded as a country living in abject poverty. This could also be as a result of a shift from an informal system to a controlled market system. This is a clear tendency in developing countries like South Africa where not al produced goods is sold through a controlled market system. A good example is the products that vendors on the sidewalk are selling.        

Table 3: Breakdown of consolidated expenditure by function

Government Expenditure graphically illustrated

Figure 2: Relative Budgeted Expenditure

The pie chart above indicates the government’s spending on priority areas during 2003/2004.  Looking forward, the indexed chart indicates change in prioritisation.  However, there is no significant change in allocation as depicted above. Expenditure on education, health and welfare takes precedence for the next 4 years.  The government views expenditure on these items as a method of creating a better-qualified work force that will contribute to economic activity in future.

2. Introduction to the Budget

2.1 Budget Environment

The 2004 budget was prepared and delivered against an economic and political background characterised by:

  • A large unhealthy gap between the dualistic economies.
  • Increasing pressure to reduce interest rates to the current level.
  •  Pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep inflation within the set targets.
  • High prevalence of poverty in the second economy, forming the basis of the governments focus for the next few years.
  • Slow economic growth, suggesting an urgent need for stimulation of the economy.
  • A favourable environment for trade and industrial development.
  • Healthy public finance.
  • A strengthening exchange rate. (R against $)
  • Improved political stability in the region and a positive atmosphere created by the attainment of 10 years of progressive democracy.
  • High unemployment rate.
  • Third democratic elections on the foreground.
Join now!

The budget is the main instrument for the government’s fiscal policy. Money is raised by way of taxes and loans, and then allocated to expenditure for the year. Governments plan and control their fiscal affairs through the budget whilst introducing taxes to raise money for future expenditure. Introducing taxes into an income-expenditure model forces us to be more careful with the assumption we make about consumption. Realistically, people should base consumption decisions not on total income, but on disposable income (disposable income being the amount left after taxes). The addition of government spending and taxes gives government a role in ...

This is a preview of the whole essay