Global music sales are presently around $US 37 billion, however there are indications that physical music sales - predominantly compact discs (CD's), mini discs (MD's), cassettes and vinyl - have reached a state of market saturation,

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Introduction

Global music sales are presently around $US 37 billion, however there are indications that physical music sales - predominantly compact discs (CD’s), mini discs (MD’s), cassettes and vinyl - have reached a state of market saturation, and may even be declining for some music formats. For example, Diebold, a leading German management and technology consultancy company, observed that global music sales fell from $41.5 billion in 1995 to $38.5 billion in 1999 (1). This decline is possibly because of the increase in Internet users worldwide and the creation of MP3’s and companies such as Napster. Understandably, these research findings raise concerns about the future of music as a product, particularly with regard to youngsters, whose future music purchasing habits are being influenced by the availability of free music over the Internet.

Offsetting these concerns about the future of music, as a product is the fact that delivery of music over the Internet (i.e. music as a service) is expected to expand significantly over the next five years (2). For example, sales of digital downloads are forecasted to increase from $22 million in 2001 to $1.6 billion in 2006. However, most online music sales will come from subscription services, which are forecast to increase from $56 million in 2001 to $2.3 billion in 2006 (3). The increasing role of the Internet in the distribution of music is transforming the music industry from a highly concentrated industry characterized by significant barriers to entry, to one in which - as seen with Napster - every user is a potential distributor.

Digitisation and compression technologies

Most music is presently sold, stored, and consumed in a digital format (typically CDs). For example, the National Association of Recording Merchandisers (1999) reports that 91 % of all revenues received by music retailers derive from sales of CDs. One key attraction of such digital media for consumers is that the recording quality does not deteriorate from copy to copy or from transmission to copy (4). In contrast, analogue recordings - such as those used in vinyl records and audio cassettes - deteriorate in quality over time (5). While digital music is attractive in terms of the quality of the listening experience, music in a digital form has facilitated the development of the downloading phenomenon that is at the center of the major transformation of the music industry. Also, compression technologies such as MP3 have put music within the reach of those with computers. MP3 technology permits the compression and transmission of "near" CD-quality sound music files over the Internet (6). MP3 was developed by the Motion Pictures Expert Group (MPEG) of the International Standards Organization (ISO). MPEG-1 audio standardizes three different coding schemes for digitized sound waves called Layers I, II, and III. Layer III is more commonly known as MP3. It does not standardize the encoder, but rather standardizes the type of information that an encoder has to produce and write to an MPEG-1 conformant bitstream as well as the way in which the decoder has to parse, decompress, and resynthesize this information in order to regain the encoded sound. The encoded sound bitstream can be stored together with an encoded video bitstream and other data streams in a so-called MPEG-1 systems stream – See Diagram (21). MP3's origin in itself is significant, as the development of the technology occurred externally to the music industry. In any event, MP3 technology has played a key role in radically changing the music industry and has become the standard among online music fans including copyright pirates.

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Consumers can transform, or "rip" compact discs into MP3 files, save the MP3 files on their own computer or a Web site, and make these files publicly available.

Downloading allows consumers to achieve other efficiencies as well, since users acquire only what most appeals to them. An additional attraction for those individuals who download music is that they can more readily customize their collections than they can with music that is pre arranged on a CD.

The advent of CD recordable (CD-R) devices similarly heightened the desirability of downloading music from the Internet. Using these devices ...

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