The Northern Ireland Dilemma- A New Solution?

The Northern Ireland Dilemma– A New Solution?

The Problem

Northern Ireland is a very strange place. It exists as a disputed territory between Britain and Ireland, and has done for around 70 years. The population of the province can be pictured in the simplest terms as a dichotomy, two mutually exclusive viewpoints held by two groups of equally belligerent people, confident in the essential truth of their particular beliefs.

One of these groups of people, lets call them unionists, wish to maintain the Union of Northern Ireland with Great Britain. They are mostly protestant and have been the ruling force in Northern Ireland since it’s creation. They have generally been oppressive, given to majority rule (understandable, as they for the majority…) and terrified of an uprising of belief in a United Ireland.

The other groups can be broadly classified as nationalists. They tend to be in the Catholic minority and would prefer to sever links with Britain (whom they see, with some justification, as an oppressive occupying force) and form a United Ireland. Historically they have been under-represented in government and would therefore prefer to see a system of proportional representation introduced.

The relationship between the two communities varies from mutually antagonistic to co-operative acceptance, depending on recent events and of course on the situations involved. However, it cannot be denied that the future outcomes envisioned by each group are irreconcilable, limiting the ability of a resolution to satisfy everyone involved.

Current Solutions

The current solutions that have been developed are merely the logical end points of the two schools of thought. From this we therefore have

a) Northern Ireland to be removed from the United Kingdom and fully integrated into a united Ireland.

b) Northern Ireland to cut off all links with Eire and remain a region within the United Kingdom.

Current government policy seems designed to stall any movement from the current vacuum, accepted by everyone, liked by no one. This may work, as one other solution to the N.I. problem could be

c) Hold Northern Ireland’s future and concentrate on improving the present until everyone forgets about any long-term goals.

Time has always been the greatest healer, but in the Northern Irish case it’s had over 400 years to whitewash over local disagreements and has resoundingly failed to do so. This situation, though attractive to the government and those in power, ultimately will probably not work.

Another solution being edged towards at the minute is

d) To devolve Northern Ireland into a country by itself with real community representation in government and a certain degree of independence from London, such as Scotland ...

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c) Hold Northern Ireland’s future and concentrate on improving the present until everyone forgets about any long-term goals.

Another solution being edged towards at the minute is

d) To devolve Northern Ireland into a country by itself with real community representation in government and a certain degree of independence from London, such as Scotland and Wales currently enjoy.

This course of action may prove to be the one followed, although it remains to be seen how successful Northern Ireland can be at governing itself, given the failure of past flirtations

The New Solution

From the brief introduction above we can see that a solution to the Northern Irish problem is unlikely to come from within itself. The opposing viewpoints and strong feelings held will cloud any issue and hinder the implementation of any agreed solution, or even the likelihood of a solution being agreed. An intractable internal problem cannot be resolved by an internal solution. Any internal solution will necessarily lead to the fulfilment of one group’s aims at the expense of the other, or to a fudged compromise hated by both. A real and lasting solution must come from outside the problem, reflecting the input of new ideas and the development of a new future.

Northern Ireland should be removed from the United Kingdom and installed as the 51st state of America.

This may at first seem like a drastic, stupid idea, but it represents a genuinely new, untried solution that doesn’t pander to one side or the other and represents a fresh start for Northern Ireland.

The Reasoning

The relative merits of each solution can perhaps best be considered by developing a matrix, such as the one below (Table 1). Here the aims of each of the concerned parties, the Unionists, the Nationalists, the British government and the Irish government, are stated in terms of their political goal, the future of violence and the overall effect on their wealth. A value of +1 is assigned in a situation where the aim is directly met, a value of –1 assigned where the opposite to their desired outcome is achieved and a value of 0 for a situation where there is no net change or a result contingent on outside factors. With this rubric we can evaluate the effect on each party in each of the outcomes. For example, we can see that in the situation where Northern Ireland was to remain part of the U.K the Unionists would have each of their specific aims met, giving a value of 3 for them. However, it would be directly against the political aim of the Nationalists, resulting in a value of –1 for them.

Table 1.

Unionists

Nationalists

British Government

Irish Government

Aim

N.I. in U.K.

N.I. in united Eire

N.I. out of U.K.

N.I. in Eire

Armed Struggle

Want an end

Wealth

Want more

Solutions

Aim A.S. W.

TOTAL MARK

N.I. in U.K.

1 1 1

-1 0 0

N.I. in Eire

-1 0 -1

1 0 -1

1 1 1

1 0 1

N.I. by itself

0 0 0

0 0 -1

1 1 1

0 1 0

N.I. in U.S.A.

0 1 1

1 1 1

0 1 0

If we follow the tenets of Uniformitarianism (the greatest good for the greatest number of people) then we can quite clearly see that the solution whereby Northern Ireland becomes part of the Unites States of America is the result that, on balance, fulfils most parties aims. It achieves a score higher than that of the other solutions combined (if that were possible…) and therefore, by the logic of this argument becomes the best solution for Northern Ireland.

The Americans

It has been demonstrated that the best possible solution for all parties concerned that Northern Ireland should become the 51st state of America, breaking out of its current stalemate and embracing a new future as part of the land of opportunity. However, the question of why America should get involved must also be answered.

The results of this enquiry can be shown in the effects on two groups: The American Government and The American People.

The American Government:

· Love to act as a peacemaker throughout the world. By solving the seemingly irresolvable Northern Irish problem they could raise their standing in the eyes of the international community and proclaim further the wonderful truth of liberal capitalism. Also George W. Bush could perhaps get himself a Nobel peace prize out of it…

· Would have a strategic military and trading base in Europe. No longer would they have to suck up to the Turks and Saudis purely for a place to keep their warplanes near the Middle East – instead they could keep them a little bit further away on American soil. Also bases on British and German soil would become less important.

· Would be able to strengthen their ties with not only Britain and Ireland, but with the newly emerging superpower of the European Union too, given that they would now share a border.

· Would be able to count on the (considerable) Irish vote at the next elections. Remember, there are more Irish people in New York than there are in Ireland…

The American people:

· Love Ireland and all things Irish (witness the scale of American St. Patrick’s day celebrations…). How much more would they love to own a piece of Ireland for themselves that they could own and visit, without of course running the risk of meeting any real foreigners…

· Like to go own about how the beat the Brits in the war of independence – this could prove to be another victory against Britain, reliving the spirit of (17)69. Or thereabouts…

The power of public opinion should never be underestimated, as Theodore Hertzel said, “If you will it, it is no dream.” Northern Ireland as a state of America would work and can be shown to work. The benefits for Northern Ireland are fairly self evident, from the increased tourism and investment as it becomes the gateway for American trade into Europe to the longer term benefits of political stability and a future where all sections of the community are represented in government. Eire would also see increased tourism from those brave enough to venture outside of N. Ireland’s borders. Great Britain would lose the economic and political drain that Northern Ireland has become and can live free from worries of bomb attacks or an over-stretched military. It could also see economic benefits arising from its proximity to America, and the prior investment it has in the Northern Irish state. The point of this idea is to inevitable move away from the past and look towards a new future, but if you want to dig up the past and look to historical precedent then it probably deserves a mention that Northern Ireland once was a part of America before. From around 350 to 50 Ma that is, and that is the blink of a geological eye.

The Northern Irish public

A small survey was run on the support for this idea amongst the Northern Irish public. In Figure 1. we see the results of the first question.

Figure1.

The surprising result of this was that as many people wished to see an American solution as a British solution all things considered. However, recognizing that a certain element of personal bias will go into the first answer, the second question asked for second preference, and Figure 2. shows the combined results – basically “Would you rather see the opposite of your aim realized or see Northern Ireland become the 51st state of America?”. Here we find that the overwhelming majority of people would rather see Northern Ireland become part of America than risk the realization of their greatest fear. This may say more about human nature than it does about the specific dilemmas posted in this situation.

Figure 2.

To conclude therefore, both the people of Northern Ireland and the logic of the whole situation points to the only eventual resolution that will please everyone – Northern Ireland as the 51st state of the United States of America. Surely until politicians realize this there can be no lasting solution in Northern Ireland, and no prospect of a peaceful new start. Only this revolutionary new solution will allows the new day to dawn with our past worries behind us and our lives, along with the lives of our children, stretching out before us like a long hot summer’s day in California.