Model Analysis:
Two different models are used to get data for the analysis of precipitation. The data was taken from NCAR CCSM model and MPI-ESM-LR model.
Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 – 2005) to projected (2006 – 2010)
Figure 1 Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 – 2005) to projected (2006 – 2010)
This data is based on CCSM model. Based on the color bar and region, the precipitation amount can be recalculated in terms of the changes in precipitation (liter) in year per unit area.
While Amazon does not show significant change in precipitation, northeast region of Brazil shows the increase in precipitation. Considering that northeast region of Brazil is the most dried and hottest region in the Brazil, changes in precipitation over time will reduce the dry season period in that area. Meanwhile, other regions such as central-west, Atlantic Coast and South part of Brazil will have less rain than in the past. This may bring a dry season to those areas, while those areas have not had distinct dry season in the year. Occurring of dry seasons in above regions will bring changes in environment and industry of local area.
Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 – 2005) to near projection (2006 – 2100)
Figure 2 Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 – 2005) to near projection (2006 – 2010)
This data is based on MPI model. While CCSM model shows that northeast region will have distinct precipitation increase, MPI model suggests that north east part of Atlantic coast will have increase in precipitation (157.785 kg/m2year), but eastern-southern region of Atlantic coast line will have decrease in precipitation (-160.94 kg/m2year). Southern Brazil and central-western part of Brazil will not have significant change in precipitation, while there will be a slight decrease in the precipitation at the west edge of Amazon region. The two models generate similar data for most part of Amazon, central-western area of Brazil but give a discrepancy in northeast region, Atlantic coast, and southern part of Brazil. It is concluded that the most part of Amazon and central-western region of Brazil will not have a significant precipitation change by 2100.
Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 – 2005) to far projection (2101 – 2300)
Figure 3 Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 – 2005) to far projection (2101 – 2300)
This data was also from MPI model. Precipitation changes drastically by the time period of 2101 to 2300. Along the Atlantic coast line and northeastern region of Brazil has increase in precipitation. Southern part of Brazil near the coast also shows the increase in precipitation while central-southern part of Brazil does not have much of precipitation change. Also Northwestern edge of Amazon area shows decrease in precipitation. However, central part of Brazil does not show the precipitation change.
Summary
From the change in precipitation over the time period from 1850 to 2300, it is predicted that currently (historical time period: 1850 – 2006) humid area will become less humid than it is now. High decrease in precipitation will affect the climate change. However, we cannot conclude that decrease in precipitation in Amazon area will bring dry season to Amazon region. However, increase in precipitation of Southern and neareast region of Brazil may shorten dry season in the year. Currently there severe drought in southern part of Brazil due to dry season is affecting industry of the local coffee production and tropical fruits and vegetables. Yet, increase in precipitation will lower near surface air temperature and will affect agricultural industry of southern Brazil.
Brazil is the third largest hydroelectricity producer in the world after China and Canada. Brazil is heavily depending on hydropower. Most of hydropower plant is concentrated on Parana River and Amazon River. Constant decrease in precipitation in Amazon region of Brazil may affect on hydropower electricity generation in Brazil as well. This will effect on national industry and energy generation, which is the key source of economy of the nation.