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Climate modelling of Precipitation in Brazil

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Introduction

Precipitation Overview: The precipitation levels of Brazil vary widely over the country. Most areas of Brazil show moderate precipitation between 1000 to 1500 millimeters a year. Most of rainfall is concentrated during the summer time at south part of the equator. The Amazon region shows higher precipitation level, which is 2000 ? 3000 millimeters per year. Especially the western Amazon area shows the higher precipitation level than other areas of Amazon. Yet, Amazon region has three to five-month-long dry season per year but dry season comes in a different seasons depending on the parts of Amazon. On the contrast of the Amazon region that shows high and regular level of precipitation, Northeast area is semiarid. The northeast area of Brazil is the driest and hottest part of the country; the dry season starts from May and last till November. Most of central-western area of Brazil shows 1500 to 2000 millimeters of rainfall per year but it also has dry seasons in the middle of the year. Meanwhile, the south, Northwest and Atlantic coast shows the similar precipitation per year without a distinct dry season. ...read more.

Middle

Meanwhile, other regions such as central-west, Atlantic Coast and South part of Brazil will have less rain than in the past. This may bring a dry season to those areas, while those areas have not had distinct dry season in the year. Occurring of dry seasons in above regions will bring changes in environment and industry of local area. Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 ? 2005) to near projection (2006 ? 2100) Figure 2 Change in precipitation from historical time period (1850 ? 2005) to near projection (2006 ? 2010) This data is based on MPI model. While CCSM model shows that northeast region will have distinct precipitation increase, MPI model suggests that north east part of Atlantic coast will have increase in precipitation (157.785 kg/m2year), but eastern-southern region of Atlantic coast line will have decrease in precipitation (-160.94 kg/m2year). Southern Brazil and central-western part of Brazil will not have significant change in precipitation, while there will be a slight decrease in the precipitation at the west edge of Amazon region. ...read more.

Conclusion

Atlantic Coast 573.354 South 662.695 Summary From the change in precipitation over the time period from 1850 to 2300, it is predicted that currently (historical time period: 1850 ? 2006) humid area will become less humid than it is now. High decrease in precipitation will affect the climate change. However, we cannot conclude that decrease in precipitation in Amazon area will bring dry season to Amazon region. However, increase in precipitation of Southern and neareast region of Brazil may shorten dry season in the year. Currently there severe drought in southern part of Brazil due to dry season is affecting industry of the local coffee production and tropical fruits and vegetables. Yet, increase in precipitation will lower near surface air temperature and will affect agricultural industry of southern Brazil. Brazil is the third largest hydroelectricity producer in the world after China and Canada. Brazil is heavily depending on hydropower. Most of hydropower plant is concentrated on Parana River and Amazon River. Constant decrease in precipitation in Amazon region of Brazil may affect on hydropower electricity generation in Brazil as well. This will effect on national industry and energy generation, which is the key source of economy of the nation. ...read more.

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